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Caravel Forum : Other Boards : Forum Games : The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (...and TSS Skywatcher congratulations!)
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Lucky Luc
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82.7% now, by the way
10-01-2013 at 10:40 AM
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rman
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bdwing wrote:
I'm curious. Shouldn't your three predictive methods converge on a single date as we get closer to the date of actual release?

Actually, they kinda seem to converge; see attached graphs.
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10-01-2013 at 11:51 AM
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mrimer
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These are neat graphs!

We've done a fairly good job of distributing the load up to this point. I'm worried we might start bottlenecking on some critical tasks as we wrap up, but we'll try to avoid that.

(The Bar is dead. Long live the Bar!)

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10-02-2013 at 01:16 AM
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blorx1
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82.75% Measurable progress!

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10-02-2013 at 06:58 AM
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Kwerulous
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83%
10-02-2013 at 09:24 PM
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Ezlo
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83.1%!

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10-02-2013 at 11:30 PM
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rman
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 icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Method 1: 426 days (August 3, 2012 to October 3, 2013) ÷ 69.6% (13.5% to 83.1%) = 6.121 days/% (previously 6.102)
⇒ end in 103 days, i. e. on January 14, 2014 (previously January 13, 2014).

Method 2: 526 days (April 25, 2012 to October 3, 2013) ÷ 83.1% (0% to 83.1%) = 6.330 days/% (previously 6.317)
⇒ end in 107 days, i. e. on January 18, 2014 (previously January 17, 2014).

Method 3: 317 days (November 20, 2012 to October 3, 2013) ÷ 67.1% (16% to 83.1%) = 4.724 days/% (previously 4.682)
⇒ end in 80 days, i. e. on December 22, 2013 (previously December 18, 2013).

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10-03-2013 at 05:33 PM
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navithmastero
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83.3%

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10-04-2013 at 07:32 AM
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Red-XIII
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83.33%

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10-04-2013 at 04:42 PM
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Ezlo
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I've got a new game, I guess that the next percentage the bar will reach is 83.5%. Any takers?

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10-04-2013 at 06:04 PM
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Maurog
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Nope, it will be 83.333%

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10-04-2013 at 06:33 PM
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mrimer
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I'm pretty sure Maurog's wrong, but now I've gotta stay away from this thread, or otherwise I have a conflict of interest.

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10-04-2013 at 07:06 PM
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Red-XIII
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Ezlo wrote:
I've got a new game, I guess that the next percentage the bar will reach is 83.5%. Any takers?

I bet it'll be 83.66% :)

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10-04-2013 at 07:25 PM
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navithmastero
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Since 83.5's taken, I'll go with 83.43

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10-04-2013 at 07:54 PM
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stigant
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Ever the optimist, I'll go with 100%

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10-04-2013 at 09:36 PM
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Chaco
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I'll go with 83.75%, because why not.

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10-05-2013 at 01:31 AM
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Pinnacle
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I'll go with an even 84. Usually these small increases are followed by a larger one.

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10-05-2013 at 02:04 AM
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TripleM
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Coincidentally or otherwise, you're all wrong: 83.65%
10-06-2013 at 06:57 AM
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Ezlo
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I think Red-XIII wins, he was only off by 0.01%

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10-06-2013 at 05:07 PM
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The spitemaster
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I don't trust these bar increases. It is just too coincidental.

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10-07-2013 at 06:25 AM
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The Architest
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I agree, and I know who's at fault.

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10-07-2013 at 01:37 PM
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mrimer
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Erik would probably blame the Hittites.

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10-07-2013 at 06:27 PM
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mrimer
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The spitemaster wrote:
I don't trust these bar increases. It is just too coincidental.
I'm curious. What are you perceiving the bar increases are coinciding with?

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Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.
[Last edited by mrimer at 10-07-2013 06:28 PM]
10-07-2013 at 06:28 PM
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robin
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Chaco wrote:
I'll go with 83.75%, because why not.

You were correct: it's 83.75% now!!!

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10-08-2013 at 06:18 AM
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Red-XIII
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83.75% A tiny but quick upgrade.

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10-08-2013 at 06:18 AM
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The spitemaster
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I wouldn't know how to explain it so others could understand.

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10-08-2013 at 07:08 AM
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Godot23
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The spitemaster wrote:
I wouldn't know how to explain it so others could understand.

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Aha! I KNEW there was a recognizable pattern! :facepalm:

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10-08-2013 at 01:21 PM
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Red-XIII
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84.1%

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10-08-2013 at 06:03 PM
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rman
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Method 1: 431 days (August 3, 2012 to October 8, 2013) ÷ 70.6% (13.5% to 84.1%) = 6.105 days/% (previously 6.121)
⇒ end in 97 days, i. e. on January 13, 2014 (previously January 14, 2014).

Method 2: 531 days (April 25, 2012 to October 8, 2013) ÷ 84.1% (0% to 84.1%) = 6.314 days/% (previously 6.330)
⇒ end in 100 days, i. e. on January 16, 2014 (previously January 18, 2014).

Method 3: 322 days (November 20, 2012 to October 8, 2013) ÷ 68.1% (16% to 84.1%) = 4.728 days/% (previously 4.724)
⇒ end in 75 days, i. e. on December 22, 2013 (previously December 22, 2013).

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10-08-2013 at 06:47 PM
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hyperme
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84.75%

Bar progress is DROD progress.

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10-10-2013 at 04:56 PM
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