robin
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 845
Registered: 09-01-2004
IP: Logged

78,75 yeah!!

____________________________

robin
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 845
Registered: 09-01-2004
IP: Logged

79% its going fast !!!

____________________________

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

Method 1: 404 days (August 3, 2012 to September 11, 2013) ÷ 65.5% (13.5% to 79%) = 6.168 days/% (previously 6.193)
⇒ end in 130 days, i. e. on January 19, 2014 (previously January 21, 2014).

Method 2: 504 days (April 25, 2012 to September 11, 2013) ÷ 79% (0% to 79%) = 6.380 days/% (previously 6.403)
⇒ end in 134 days, i. e. on January 23, 2014 (previously January 25, 2014).

Method 3: 295 days (November 20, 2012 to September 11, 2013) ÷ 63% (16% to 79%) = 4.683 days/% (previously 4.691)
⇒ end in 98 days, i. e. on December 18, 2013 (previously December 19, 2013).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

---

[Last edited by rman at 09-10-2013 09:19 PM]

Kwerulous
Level: Smiter
Rank Points: 340
Registered: 05-15-2008
IP: Logged

79.25%

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1173
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged

80%

Woo I got a multiple of 10!

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

Wow, the Bar is going very fast! A whole new percent on the same day! (Although I didn’t detect it until today…)

Method 1: 404 days (August 3, 2012 to September 11, 2013) ÷ 66.5% (13.5% to 80%) = 6.075 days/% (previously 6.168)
⇒ end in 122 days, i. e. on January 11, 2014 (previously January 19, 2014).

Method 2: 504 days (April 25, 2012 to September 11, 2013) ÷ 80% (0% to 80%) = 6.300 days/% (previously 6.380)
⇒ end in 126 days, i. e. on January 15, 2014 (previously January 23, 2014).

Method 3: 295 days (November 20, 2012 to September 11, 2013) ÷ 64% (16% to 80%) = 4.609 days/% (previously 4.683)
⇒ end in 92 days, i. e. on December 12, 2013 (previously December 18, 2013).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

Chaco
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 3659
Registered: 10-06-2005
IP: Logged

Don't forget, the last 20% of the bar takes the last 80% of the time

____________________________
Quick links to my stuff (in case you forgot where it was):

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Heh, the bar is immune to the 80-20 rule.

Now, the 90-10 rule is another matter

Or the 70-30 rule for GatEB.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 09-12-2013 11:50 PM]

Lamkin
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 606
Registered: 08-17-2008
IP: Logged

80.25%

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Whoa! You must be a silicon-based life form.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 09-14-2013 10:08 PM]

Pinnacle
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1135
Registered: 06-10-2004
IP: Logged

80.5%

____________________________
Once (adv.): Enough.
Twice (adv.): Once too often.
~Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary

Nuntar
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 4756
Registered: 02-20-2007
IP: Logged

80.75%

____________________________
50th Skywatcher

TripleM
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1377
Registered: 02-05-2003
IP: Logged

File: drodbarimage.png (15.7 KB)
Downloaded 629 times.
License: Public Domain

Time for a new graph..



Prediction based on red points: 22 December.

Christmas present, anyone?

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Wow! That would be cool, but it would be a happy coincidence. Go tell coppro to get around to recording his lines.

I should put this graph in my resume. I haven't tried padding it or forcing the schedule. The dev team should be able to attest that I bump it up whenever work getting us closer to release gets done. It makes me look like the most accurate project manager and best estimating developer ever, all at once.

That being said, it's thanks to everyone's efforts that the bar is moving up at this steady pace. The team is seriously rocking this game and we have great momentum!

(Okay, enough tooting our own horn. The game must stand on its own merits.)

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 09-17-2013 08:18 PM]

robin
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 845
Registered: 09-01-2004
IP: Logged

81%!!!!

____________________________

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

Method 1: 410 days (August 3, 2012 to September 17, 2013) ÷ 67.5% (13.5% to 81%) = 6.074 days/% (previously 6.075)
⇒ end in 115 days, i. e. on January 10, 2014 (previously January 11, 2014).

Method 2: 510 days (April 25, 2012 to September 17, 2013) ÷ 81% (0% to 81%) = 6.296 days/% (previously 6.300)
⇒ end in 120 days, i. e. on January 15, 2014 (previously January 15, 2014).

Method 3: 301 days (November 20, 2012 to September 17, 2013) ÷ 65% (16% to 81%) = 4.631 days/% (previously 4.609)
⇒ end in 88 days, i. e. on December 14, 2013 (previously December 12, 2013).


____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1173
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged

81.1%

Every little helps, as they* say.

*They being a supermarket.

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

This is an important 0.1%!

That increment looks small, but this game probably has a thousand pieces to put together. So, every piece is an important detail that will help to make the whole more than the sum of its parts.

...

Okay, we're getting close and I wanna spoil something. Well, not exactly spoil. That has the connotation of ruining the experience in some way. But it's not right to keep stating how good this will be without showing any of it off. Naturally, there are certain categories of reveals that fans are more interested in than others. If you'd like to see something, name off a category about it in the TSS spoilers thread on the General board, and when it feels like there's a consensus (or at least no objections) we'll reveal something from the category or categories that most people are interested in.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 09-17-2013 08:52 PM]

TripleM
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1377
Registered: 02-05-2003
IP: Logged

81.3%

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

There are some good ideas being listed on the spoilers thread. We'll put something good together for these.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

Nuntar
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 4756
Registered: 02-20-2007
IP: Logged

81.5%

____________________________
50th Skywatcher

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

We don't have the exact topics being revealed further yet, but we do have a fun surprise up on the spoilers thread. (The creator is welcome to step forward to take a bow if they like, of course.)

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 09-23-2013 05:35 PM]

The spitemaster
Level: Smiter
Rank Points: 354
Registered: 06-09-2005
IP: Logged

Oops, I totally called him out.

____________________________
Last night upon a stair
I met a man that wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish that man would stay away

blorx1
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 920
Registered: 07-18-2009
IP: Logged

81.75%

____________________________
If you need to think outside of the box, then you didn't build a good enough box.

RabidChild
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 720
Registered: 01-15-2006
IP: Logged

81.85%

blorx1
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 920
Registered: 07-18-2009
IP: Logged

82% now. I think I check this forum too often.

____________________________
If you need to think outside of the box, then you didn't build a good enough box.

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

Method 1: 418 days (August 3, 2012 to September 25, 2013) ÷ 68.5% (13.5% to 82%) = 6.102 days/% (previously 6.074)
⇒ end in 110 days, i. e. on January 13, 2014 (previously January 10, 2014).

Method 2: 518 days (April 25, 2012 to September 25, 2013) ÷ 82% (0% to 82%) = 6.317 days/% (previously 6.296)
⇒ end in 114 days, i. e. on January 17, 2014 (previously January 15, 2014).

Method 3: 309 days (November 20, 2012 to September 25, 2013) ÷ 66% (16% to 82%) = 4.682 days/% (previously 4.631)
⇒ end in 84 days, i. e. on December 18, 2013 (previously December 14, 2013).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

Pinnacle
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1135
Registered: 06-10-2004
IP: Logged

82.5% now, only 17.5% to go!

____________________________
Once (adv.): Enough.
Twice (adv.): Once too often.
~Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary

bdwing
Level: Master Delver
Rank Points: 288
Registered: 02-16-2003
IP: Logged

rman wrote:
Method 1:⇒ end in 110 days, i. e. on January 13, 2014 (previously January 10, 2014).

Method 2:⇒ end in 114 days, i. e. on January 17, 2014 (previously January 15, 2014).

Method 3:⇒ end in 84 days, i. e. on December 18, 2013 (previously December 14, 2013).

I'm curious. Shouldn't your three predictive methods converge on a single date as we get closer to the date of actual release?
There is 30 days difference between the earliest date and the latest date with only 2 1/2 months to go per the early date (3 1/2 months to go per the latest date).

____________________________
In the words of Cyndi Lauper:

"Until it ends, there is no end."

TripleM
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1377
Registered: 02-05-2003
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File: drodbar2.png (30.4 KB)
Downloaded 53 times.
License: Public Domain

bdwing wrote: I'm curious. Shouldn't your three predictive methods converge on a single date as we get closer to the date of actual release?
There is 30 days difference between the earliest date and the latest date with only 2 1/2 months to go per the early date (3 1/2 months to go per the latest date).

See attached for those three prediction methods added to my above graph (haven't added further points since then) - I think it's clear why that happens