TripleM
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51.25%, and an improved prediction of 17 December.

west.logan
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File: BarPlot.JPG (79.2 KB)
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Here's the data points so far. Draw your own conclusions. Vertical lines are months.



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[Last edited by west.logan at 05-01-2013 02:27 PM]

mrimer
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It is true that there was a period from mid-September to mid-November where not much work was being done. That flatline is an anomaly.

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navithmastero
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And 52%

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navithmastero
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navithmastero wrote:
And 52.5%

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 05-03-2013 01:12 PM]

rman
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It took the Bar 272 days (from August 3, 2012 to May 2, 2013) to advance by 38.5% (from 13.5% to 52%). At this rate (7.065 days per percent, previously exactly 7.2), it will reach 100% in 339 more days, i.e. on April 6, 2014 (was previously April 18, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 372 days (from April 25, 2012 to May 2, 2013) to advance by 52%. This way (7.154 days per percent, previously 7.255) it will reach 100% in 343 days, i.e. on April 10, 2014 (was previously April 21, 2014).

Let’s try a different way...

It took the Bar 163 days (from November 20, 2012 to May 2, 2013) to advance by 36% (from 16% to 52%). At this rate (4.528 days per percent), it will reach 100% in 217 more days, i.e. on December 5, 2013.

(Yeah, I could add the third way earlier. I was just being lazy.)
(And yes, I know it’s 52.5% already.)

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[Last edited by rman at 05-03-2013 09:50 AM]

The Architest
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Es ist dreiundfünfzig (53%) prozent!

rman
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Method 1: 274 days (August 3, 2012 to May 4, 2013) ÷ 39.5% (13.5% to 53%) = 6.937 days/% (previously 7.065)
⇒ end in 326 days, i. e. on March 26, 2014 (previously April 6, 2014).

Method 2: 374 days (April 25, 2012 to May 4, 2013) ÷ 53% (0% to 53%) = 7.057 days/% (previously 7.154)
⇒ end in 332 days, i. e. on April 1, 2014 (previously April 10, 2014).

Method 3: 165 days (November 20, 2012 to May 4, 2013) ÷ 37% (16% to 53%) = 4.459 days/% (previously 4.528)
⇒ end in 210 days, i. e. on November 30, 2013 (previously December 5, 2013).

Hey, that second method looks realistic after all.

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mrimer
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rman wrote:
Hey, that second method looks realistic after all.

Woo! See? Statistics don't lie.

If you don't want them to.

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The spitemaster
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I think that someone is goosing the bar to make even the prediction land on April 1. I won't be fooled!

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mrimer
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The spitemaster wrote:
I think that someone is goosing the bar to make even the prediction land on April 1. I won't be fooled!

Hmm...good intuition. This begs the question: when will TSS be released?

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navithmastero
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53.5%

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navithmastero
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Fifty-three-and-three-quarters!

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 05-09-2013 06:51 AM]

navithmastero
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54!

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rman
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Method 1: 280 days (August 3, 2012 to May 10, 2013) ÷ 40.5% (13.5% to 54%) = 6.914 days/% (previously 6.937)
⇒ end in 318 days, i. e. on March 24, 2014 (previously March 26, 2014).

Method 2: 380 days (April 25, 2012 to May 10, 2013) ÷ 54% (0% to 54%) = 7.037 days/% (previously 7.057)
⇒ end in 324 days, i. e. on March 30, 2014 (previously April 1, 2014).

Method 3: 171 days (November 20, 2012 to May 10, 2013) ÷ 38% (16% to 54%) = exactly 4.5 days/% (previously 4.459)
⇒ end in 207 days, i. e. on December 3, 2013 (previously November 30, 2013).

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The spitemaster
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You might have to start showing the time when it is done, not just the date.

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rman
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That might require measuring the time when the Bar is updated, not just the date. I don’t think I could determine that, only the time when the update is first noticed.

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Chaco
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Clearly this means that Schik should create an RSS feed for the bar, so that we instantaneously know when it's updated.

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mrimer
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Unfortunately, the time the bar is updated is not equivalent to when progress is made. But it does approximately match when observable progress is measured. I guess it all depends on what type of sampling method we think is relevant.

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Tahnan
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mrimer wrote:
Unfortunately, the time the bar is updated is not equivalent to when progress is made. But it does approximately match when observable progress is measured.

Unfortunately, once we observe the progress, we have no way of knowing what direction the progress is in. Hermansen's Uncertainty Principle guarantees that.

navithmastero
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54.25%

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Kwerulous
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55%

Godot23
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Question,
Does the watch bar count down to the completion of the game INCLUDING Beta Testing, or does it just count down to the completion of the first version of the game? In other words, does it count down to completion or release?

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mrimer
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That's a good question. A philosophical question. Is a game ever completed? Is DROD ever completed? Is DROD ever released?

Okay, it gets released.

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I am Gandalf the White.
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rman
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Method 1: 284 days (August 3, 2012 to May 14, 2013) ÷ 41.5% (13.5% to 55%) = 6.843 days/% (previously 6.914)
⇒ end in 308 days, i. e. on March 18, 2014 (previously March 24, 2014).

Method 2: 384 days (April 25, 2012 to May 14, 2013) ÷ 55% (0% to 55%) = 6.982 days/% (previously 7.037)
⇒ end in 314 days, i. e. on March 24, 2014 (previously March 30, 2014).

Method 3: 175 days (November 20, 2012 to May 14, 2013) ÷ 39% (16% to 55%) = 4.487 days/% (previously exactly 4.5)
⇒ end in 202 days, i. e. on December 2, 2013 (previously December 3, 2013).

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Godot23
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mrimer wrote:
That's a good question. A philosophical question. Is a game ever completed? Is DROD ever completed? Is DROD ever released?

Okay, it gets released.

If we are going on this whole "deepness" and "philosophy" path, then I have a question that has been bothering me for a while. I always believed that the Watch Bar was a metaphor for something much larger than itself... but then we are lead to the question "Metaphor for what?"

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mrimer
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The Bar is Life. Life, and the perception thereof.

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Godot23
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Ah! And suddenly the meaning of life is revealed! It has been staring me in the face the whole time! Mind blown!

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RabidChild
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If you want a less philosophical answer, previous bars have included the beta testing phase, with the game being released once the bar reached 100%. Presumably this bar will follow the same pattern.

mrimer
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Yes, that's likely.

Oh, I should also mention, that part of the perception of life are the concepts of time and progress.

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Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.