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Chaco
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I'm trying to get to the pocket of space in the NW corner of the center arena, where I might potentially last a little bit longer.

It's still possible to use the center box. You'd have to enter from the E subarena though.

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09-09-2006 at 10:25 PM
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Chris
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Chaco wrote:
It's still possible to use the center box. You'd have to enter from the E subarena though.

I'm pretty sure I'm able to enter it from the W subarena.
09-09-2006 at 10:32 PM
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Chaco
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Well, that's true too - you'd just be using the pathway I was thinking of in reverse.

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09-09-2006 at 10:33 PM
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Hikari
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techant wrote:
I myself may have made a big mistake turning instead of jumping. I just couldn't see any way out if Hikari followed me in to the right area. I thought I would stand a better chance out in the main arena - I was wrong. Good luck to Hikari the exits are blocking up fast which was what I feared and exiting may not be an option so us every bit of space wisely. :fun
My fate may be decided in as little as two hours!

Well, kinda. I'm going to have to peek back in around 4PM my time, as that's the first time that my chosen path outside the center there may be blocked. I may have to play around in Photoshop again to figure out how to move.

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09-09-2006 at 10:36 PM
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jbluestein
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Chris wrote:
Looks like Doom is dead by move 305 or so too. I just don't see where he can escape to.

I actually give him until turn 298. He could choose a shorter path, but I believe that his longest available path at this point end with his head in the hook.

zex doesn't look dead to me, at least not immediately. He's heading back into the central arena, though...which is quickly becoming a not very friendly place.



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09-09-2006 at 10:45 PM
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michthro
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eytanz wrote:
At my last decision point it was far from easy to predict it, and once I was committed to the course I wasn't really paying much attention.
Yeah, considering how lucky I was to get in there, it was impossible to predict. I always wanted to get there, but it required a lot of things to go my way. For one thing, if it hadn't been for kie jumping so many times in a row, you'd have pushed me right back into the middle. And that's just one of many things that could have gone wrong.
Chris wrote:
You just surprised me by *not* coming to visit me. I was all prepared for you and everything.
Heh. After the chaos of the middle I feel like just being alone for a while. I can still get to your area, so maybe later.
09-09-2006 at 10:58 PM
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jbluestein
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I hereby predict RabidChild's impending demise. There's still a variable or two to be considered, but assuming no snake suicides in order to kill him faster, RabidChild will die on either turn 299 or 300.

I'm not yet putting either his or Doom's death in the future Dead Snakes list, because I'd rather have the turn be set in stone. But it ought to be decided in a few more moves anyway.



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09-09-2006 at 11:03 PM
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Doom
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Chris wrote:
Looks like Doom is dead by move 305 or so too. I just don't see where he can escape to.
You can put 305 on the list: My final moveset is "BBJBBJBJJ", and won't be interrupted by other snakes.

Edit: Forget that. I didn't see Beef Row's chance to affect this earlier.

Yeah, I foresaw that possibility some 8 hours ago. I made a planning mistake about 2 days ago, and here we are... (I was somehow seeing that I'd get a route through the center to the left side, but realised later that it wasn't going to happen - Which, now that I look at it, looks like a fairly bad plan as well)

But it's not that bad. It was still a fun game. And I have a bit more free time now than I had before that. :cool
[Last edited by Doom at 09-10-2006 04:05 PM]
09-09-2006 at 11:15 PM
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techant
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I think Pinnacle will be doing a wrap around and then will be joining you Hikari in the lower right area. ;) I still recommend trying to stay alive in there as long as possiable maybe Pinnacle's entrance will help you, then maybe not. Good luck.

Edit add: Because of eytanz and my decision not to join Hikari in the lower left area, I can either die at move 292 or move 287, but Doom still lives longer than me DRATS!:fun

Looks to me like the winner will either be chris or michthro, but that will be days maybe even weeks from now. I am ready for the September contest. :lol


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[Last edited by techant at 10-22-2007 09:43 AM]
09-09-2006 at 11:28 PM
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Hikari
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Hate to break it to you, techant, but I see Pinnacle killing you on 275, if I'm reading the snakes right...

I'm afraid I don't quite see how Pinnacle's gonna get into my area, though.

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09-10-2006 at 12:18 AM
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McFrugal
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Syril Ram could enter the lower-left area alongside Pinnacle if he wanted. Also, I don't think techant is going to die. Due to move order, Pinnacle will not be in the way when techant hits the dead end and gets her turn. After that, she's going to do a u-turn after Pinnacle and Syril Ram jump (and Syril Ram *will* jump if he wants to survive), which will eventually lead her into one of two other areas, depending on what tyrion does next.

Edit: oh wait, Eytanz is going to interfere.
[Last edited by McFrugal at 09-10-2006 12:28 AM]
09-10-2006 at 12:25 AM
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jbluestein
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Hikari wrote:
Hate to break it to you, techant, but I see Pinnacle killing you on 275, if I'm reading the snakes right...

I'm afraid I don't quite see how Pinnacle's gonna get into my area, though.

Nope, Pinnacle will move out of techant's way in time, allowing her to jump north. Pinnacle and Syril Ram will have a faceoff which will allow Pinnacle to jump north out of the central arena, and Syril Ram as well...if I'm reading it right. Believe it or not, I can't predict immediate death for any of the three snakes in that area -- they all seem to have escape paths.



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09-10-2006 at 12:28 AM
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Chris
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Doom wrote:
My final moveset is "BBJBBJBJJ", and won't be interrupted by other snakes.

Watcher can interfere with that path just before your first 'J'.

It's probably suicide for Watcher to do so, but it could happen.
09-10-2006 at 12:33 AM
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Hikari
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:facepalms: OK, I had Pinnacle a turn slower than he actually is.

Huh.

I'll have to adjust my plans for almost completely filling up that area, then.

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09-10-2006 at 01:07 AM
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zex20913
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Watcher will die in either 10, 14, or 16 moves from the time of this post, depending on how Doom chooses to die.

Watcher may still have an impact though.

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09-10-2006 at 02:12 AM
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techant
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jbluestein wrote:
Hikari wrote:
Hate to break it to you, techant, but I see Pinnacle killing you on 275, if I'm reading the snakes right...

I'm afraid I don't quite see how Pinnacle's gonna get into my area, though.

Nope, Pinnacle will move out of techant's way in time, allowing her to jump north. Pinnacle and Syril Ram will have a faceoff which will allow Pinnacle to jump north out of the central arena, and Syril Ram as well...if I'm reading it right. Believe it or not, I can't predict immediate death for any of the three snakes in that area -- they all seem to have escape paths.


It's eytanz that I am worried about. :blush As he comes across he will block my only way of escape. So then I die. :weep

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09-10-2006 at 03:56 AM
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Beef Row
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Well, I'm pretty sure its over for me at this point. I can get out of where I am, but only to an absurdly tight space.

Getting to the left side never worked out for me, and the fact that I was trying to plan my attempt to get to the right side at least in 5 minute breaks between classes led to a couple of errors and a really awful position.

Which raises the question: Chris, how many snakes can you still simulate wins for now? Is it only for snakes on the left, or do any in the right or center still have a chance?

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09-10-2006 at 04:00 AM
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eytanz
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I don't think Chris runs through all possible scenarios - he runs random simulations and sees who wins in them, but he can't tell if other serpents have ways of winning or not.

That said, I believe it is impossible for me to win, though I may survive for a while.

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[Last edited by eytanz at 09-10-2006 04:01 AM]
09-10-2006 at 04:01 AM
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Beef Row
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eytanz wrote:
I don't think Chris runs through all possible scenarios - he runs random simulations and sees who wins in them, but he can't tell if other serpents have ways of winning or not.

That said, I believe it is impossible for me to win, though I may survive for a while.

Yeah, I know its not exhaustive, but I was curious if any of the random results are still winners from anywhere beside the left section. I have no idea if he's running enough samples to make good guesses about which snakes can still win though, beyond the obvious 'this snake won in simulation x, therefore it can win'.

EDIT: Also, my situation may not be quite as terminal as it first appeared.

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[Last edited by Beef Row at 09-10-2006 07:00 AM]
09-10-2006 at 06:47 AM
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NiroZ
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@ Chris X2

RE post about 3 pages back
Really? I really don't see how, unless i manage to outlive everyone else without escaping the right corner, which is a pretty low possilbity.
Can anyone else see this possilbity?

Re second post to do with time
There have been problems with post times (post something, then edit it, and the chances are you will have edited it 1 hour or so before your post, according to the forum.Its quite possible its something to do with this.
09-10-2006 at 07:58 AM
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Doom
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Actually... I think Watcher isn't dead for sure just yet. Note that Beef Row moves before him.

And yes, Watcher may affect me by suiciding himself to my path, in which case we'll die on turns 288 (Watcher) and 289 (Me).
09-10-2006 at 08:07 AM
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techant
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NiroZ wrote:
@ Chris X2

RE post about 3 pages back
Really? I really don't see how, unless i manage to outlive everyone else without escaping the right corner, which is a pretty low possilbity.
Can anyone else see this possilbity?

I can get you down to the next section but you die there, so it is just what give you the most turns.

From turn 276 BJBJJ NOW JUMP Over the snake body (even though the exit looks blocked it isn't, there is an empty space below). So that is BJBJJJ.

edit add- you could also loop around somemore and wait to do that death leap when you can't do anymore. Just leave yourself the launching area.:lol

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[Last edited by techant at 09-10-2006 08:54 AM : more added]
09-10-2006 at 08:50 AM
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Chris
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Beef Row wrote:
Yeah, I know its not exhaustive,

There are something like 100 real binary (bump-or-jump) choices left. An exhaustive search would have to examine 2^100 positions. That's around 10^30 - a big number. If I could examine a billion positions per second it would take around 40 trillion years to run.

but I was curious if any of the random results are still winners from anywhere beside the left section. I have no idea if he's running enough samples to make good guesses about which snakes can still win though, beyond the obvious 'this snake won in simulation x, therefore it can win'.

EDIT: Also, my situation may not be quite as terminal as it first appeared.

At the time of posting, I have been able to simulate wins for all remaining players other than:

Doom, who I've seen finish no better than 9th,
NiroZ, who I've seen finish no better than 4th, and
techant, who I've seen finish no better than 23rd.

In other news, the first "fixed move death" for a while has just come up:

techant will die on move 283.
[Last edited by Chris at 09-10-2006 11:06 AM : fixed the maths]
09-10-2006 at 10:35 AM
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Chris
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NiroZ wrote:
@ Chris X2

RE post about 3 pages back
Really? I really don't see how, unless i manage to outlive everyone else without escaping the right corner, which is a pretty low possilbity.
Can anyone else see this possilbity?

I don't know if you can still win, but back about 3 pages ago you could. I made a video of it happening at the time, and posted it on my YouTube page:

http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=dooglus

It's still there if you want to see it. I don't think such an escape path is still open. You can still come in 4th place if the other snakes all arrange to commit suicide before you run out of space in your corner.
09-10-2006 at 10:52 AM
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NiroZ
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Chris wrote:
NiroZ wrote:
@ Chris X2

RE post about 3 pages back
Really? I really don't see how, unless i manage to outlive everyone else without escaping the right corner, which is a pretty low possilbity.
Can anyone else see this possilbity?

I don't know if you can still win, but back about 3 pages ago you could. I made a video of it happening at the time, and posted it on my YouTube page:

http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=dooglus

It's still there if you want to see it. I don't think such an escape path is still open. You can still come in 4th place if the other snakes all arrange to commit suicide before you run out of space in your corner.

Ah, well. Its the closest i have come to winning a contest yet.
Its a pity that tuttle decided not to suicide on my behalf. I wonder why...
09-10-2006 at 11:07 AM
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eytanz
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If Kie jumps in her next move, she's dead. I'd strongly recommend that she bumps.

Edit: Scratch that. There's a way she can survive if she jumps.

Edit: Reinstate my original statement. If she jumps she's dead, she could only delay it.

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09-10-2006 at 08:30 PM
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eytanz
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And Kie bumped, prolonging both of our lives. Yay!

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09-10-2006 at 10:02 PM
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kie
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My pleasure, Eytan!

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09-10-2006 at 10:04 PM
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zex20913
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Watcher just saved Beef Row.

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09-10-2006 at 10:07 PM
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Watcher
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Nope - Mikko will block Beef Row's intended escape path. Beef Row will die in five turns, and I'll die on the turn after that.

My reason for jumping, by the way, was that I hoped that Beef Row would bump on this turn. This was also a possible escape path (although there's the same problem with Mikko getting in the way), and if he'd planned to take that route, I would've survived as well.

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09-10-2006 at 10:14 PM
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