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Doom
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icon Re: Dead Snakes (0)  
298, it is. I didn't see that Beef Row was going to interrupt Watcher's route earlier, so it looked like a certain 305. No more choices for me.
09-10-2006 at 04:07 PM
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Chaco
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Doom is doomed! :P

Well, my plan worked out. With a few more strategic bumps and jumps I can use the upper left area to my own advantage (which should help, as a lot of snakes in the center are dying now)

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09-10-2006 at 04:40 PM
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Chris
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icon Re: Dead Snakes (0)  
RabidChild can still be saved, if Hikari goes into the dead end instead of him.
09-10-2006 at 08:18 PM
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Hikari
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I'm more worried about whether it's possible to save *myself* than saving RabidChild... I'm searching and searching and not finding a way out :|

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09-10-2006 at 08:33 PM
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Chris
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We now have 4 certain deaths coming soon:

Beef Row dies on move 288
Watcher dies on move 289
kie dies on move 297
Doom dies on move 298

09-10-2006 at 11:47 PM
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Hikari
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Given that I'm the one making the decisions that affect these two players, and don't plan on changing from what I've already set as my commands, I will hereby give the following deaths:

RabidChild 299
Syril Ram 300

I think I counted right...

Sorry, guys, but my goal has changed from 'win the game' to 'kill everyone in that subarena with me'.

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-11-2006 08:01 AM]
09-11-2006 at 07:56 AM
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Chris
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icon Re: Dead Snakes (0)  
You're missing these 2:

zex20913 dies on move 290
Sergenth dies on move 300

Also, note that RabidChild's death is still not certain.
09-11-2006 at 08:04 AM
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Hikari
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quote:
Chris wrote:
Also, note that RabidChild's death is still not certain.


Yes. it is. I'm the only one who can stop it, and I'm telling you flat-out, I'm not going to. Same with Syril Ram's. ;)

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-11-2006 08:25 AM]
09-11-2006 at 08:24 AM
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Chris
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icon Re: Dead Snakes (0)  
quote:
Hikari wrote:
quote:
Chris wrote:
Also, note that RabidChild's death is still not certain.


Yes. it is. I'm the only one who can stop it, and I'm telling you flat-out, I'm not going to. Same with Syril Ram's. ;)

What I mean is that it's not certain in the same way that the others are.

Sergenth is going to die on move 300 whatever the other snakes do.

But RabidChild's fate depends on the actions of at least one other snake.

See the distinction?
09-11-2006 at 10:17 AM
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Hikari
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:sighs: The only snake able to affect RabidChild or Syril Tam's life/death is mine, and I'm purposefully causing them both to go to their deaths. There's no way for them to prevent it, and I'm not going to change my path. Why're you arguing with that? :?

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09-11-2006 at 12:11 PM
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jbluestein
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quote:
Hikari wrote:
:sighs: The only snake able to affect RabidChild or Syril Tam's life/death is mine, and I'm purposefully causing them both to go to their deaths. There's no way for them to prevent it, and I'm not going to change my path. Why're you arguing with that? :?


I see the distinction that Chris is trying to make. I'm trying to draw a line between predicting other snakes' actions and providing as much information on snake death as I can. As such, while I won't list NiroZ's death until we're clear on exactly when it's going to be, I have no problem with listing RabidChild and Syril Ram's death based on Hikari's claim that he's going to jump on turn 294. If he doesn't jump, well...



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09-11-2006 at 02:04 PM
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Hikari
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I jumped. ;)

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09-11-2006 at 08:58 PM
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Hikari
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Rabscuttle, 308

Unless I'm mistaken, Chaco 313
EDIT: Ack, collisioned by Rabscuttle while editing >.<

NiroZ can't survive any longer than 317 if I'm reading right...

goldenlion, likewise, is doomed no later than 317, but possibly on 309 if eytanz suicides...

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-12-2006 09:05 AM]
09-12-2006 at 08:49 AM
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Rabscuttle
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Chaco 313
09-12-2006 at 08:54 AM
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eytanz
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quote:
Hikari wrote:
goldenlion, likewise, is doomed no later than 317, but possibly on 309 if eytanz suicides...


I can see how I can shorten goldenlion's life, but I can't see why that would be suicide - it seems to me that even in a worst-case scenario of other serpents' choices, this path will be approximately as long as my other choice. What am I missing?

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09-12-2006 at 03:40 PM
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jbluestein
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quote:
eytanz wrote:
quote:
Hikari wrote:
goldenlion, likewise, is doomed no later than 317, but possibly on 309 if eytanz suicides...


I can see how I can shorten goldenlion's life, but I can't see why that would be suicide - it seems to me that even in a worst-case scenario of other serpents' choices, this path will be approximately as long as my other choice. What am I missing?


I don't think it's suicide at all.

I mean, being a snake is kind of like suicide to begin with, but you certainly don't die immediately if you take out goldenlion.



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09-12-2006 at 05:39 PM
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jbluestein
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I'm putting Pinnacle on the Dead Snakes list.

Projected time of death: Turn 309.

Although...he does have other options.

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09-12-2006 at 05:42 PM
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Chris
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quote:
jbluestein wrote:
      Pinnacle       309
      Rabscuttle     309
      Chaco          314




I think I would correct that to:
      Rabscuttle     308
      Chaco          313


I think I might still be missing the point of this 'due to die soon' list. Why did you add Pinnacle to it when you already know his time of death isn't yet fixed?
09-12-2006 at 06:31 PM
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jbluestein
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quote:
Chris wrote:
quote:
jbluestein wrote:
      Pinnacle       309
      Rabscuttle     309
      Chaco          314




I think I would correct that to:
      Rabscuttle     308
      Chaco          313


I think I might still be missing the point of this 'due to die soon' list. Why did you add Pinnacle to it when you already know his time of death isn't yet fixed?


Right. For some reason I miscounted those earlier.

As for Pinnacle, he is definitely going to die by that turn -- he may choose to die earlier. If you detect some inconsistency in how I'm doing things, that's probably because I'm behaving inconsistently. I'm not trying to be too rigorous. Just doin' what feels right.

Josh

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09-12-2006 at 08:05 PM
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eytanz
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Goldenlion will die on turn 309. This is contingent on me bumping next turn, which I will.

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09-12-2006 at 08:37 PM
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Hikari
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Well, my reign of chaos is over... But not before I directly kill three snakes.

Pinnacle, 309 (already mentioned in thread)
Tuttle, 310
Kevin, 318

and then...

Hikari, 324

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-12-2006 10:23 PM]
09-12-2006 at 10:11 PM
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jbluestein
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quote:
Hikari wrote:
Well, my reign of chaos is over... But not before I directly kill three snakes.

Pinnacle, 309 (already mentioned in thread)
Tuttle, 310
Kevin, 318

and then...

Hikari, 324


Interestingly, had Pinnacle jumped instead of bumped on turn 307, he would have died on turn 308, but then you would have been killed by Tuttle instead of the other way around.


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09-13-2006 at 12:08 AM
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eytanz
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I think I'm dead on turn 318.

Well, at least I made the top 10 :)

If I had bumped instead of jumping last turn, I may have survived several more turns, depending on the actuals on Mikko, Tyrion, and Goldenlion. But I jumped because if Mikko had jumped 3 turns ago, I would also have survived longer than any other path available to me, making it a worthwhile gambit in my opinion.

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09-13-2006 at 03:08 AM
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Hikari
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I'm actually pretty sure that if Tuttle had bumped instead of jumped at his last choice point, I would've not only killed everyone but gotten into a position to escape to the open areas to the north and survive for another few days. Alas, it didn't happen.

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09-13-2006 at 03:51 AM
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Hikari
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I don't see how you're dead on 318, eytanz. I see you dead on 328, though.

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09-13-2006 at 08:59 AM
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Chris
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quote:
Hikari wrote:
I don't see how you're dead on 318, eytanz. I see you dead on 328, though.

I guess it was a typo.

eytanz dies on move 328 whatever happens.
09-13-2006 at 01:07 PM
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eytanz
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Yup, that certainly was a typo. Thanks!

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09-13-2006 at 02:04 PM
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jbluestein
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10 snakes left, and we have fully-defined paths for five of them.

The five remaining snakes:

Mikko
michthro
trick
Ostegolectr1c
Chris

Of these, I predict that the last three will be michthro, Ostegolectr1c and Chris.

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09-13-2006 at 03:15 PM
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Timo006
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I think that Mikko will die on turn 342. I can'th see any escape for him. However, If he tries to jump on turn 333, then he will die on turn 337.

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09-14-2006 at 06:28 AM
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trick
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Mikko can survive until turn 346, actually.

- Gerry

[Last edited by trick at 09-14-2006 03:19 PM : typo]
09-14-2006 at 03:17 PM
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