Doom
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298, it is. I didn't see that Beef Row was going to interrupt Watcher's route earlier, so it looked like a certain 305. No more choices for me.

Chaco
Level: Smitemaster
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Doom is doomed!

Well, my plan worked out. With a few more strategic bumps and jumps I can use the upper left area to my own advantage (which should help, as a lot of snakes in the center are dying now)

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Chris
Level: Master Delver
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RabidChild can still be saved, if Hikari goes into the dead end instead of him.

Hikari
Level: Smiter

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I'm more worried about whether it's possible to save *myself* than saving RabidChild... I'm searching and searching and not finding a way out

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Chris
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We now have 4 certain deaths coming soon:

Beef Row dies on move 288
Watcher dies on move 289
kie dies on move 297
Doom dies on move 298

Hikari
Level: Smiter

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Given that I'm the one making the decisions that affect these two players, and don't plan on changing from what I've already set as my commands, I will hereby give the following deaths:

RabidChild 299
Syril Ram 300

I think I counted right...

Sorry, guys, but my goal has changed from 'win the game' to 'kill everyone in that subarena with me'.

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-11-2006 08:01 AM]

Chris
Level: Master Delver
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You're missing these 2:

zex20913 dies on move 290
Sergenth dies on move 300

Also, note that RabidChild's death is still not certain.

Hikari
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Chris wrote:
Also, note that RabidChild's death is still not certain.

Yes. it is. I'm the only one who can stop it, and I'm telling you flat-out, I'm not going to. Same with Syril Ram's.

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-11-2006 08:25 AM]

Chris
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Hikari wrote:

Chris wrote:
Also, note that RabidChild's death is still not certain.

Yes. it is. I'm the only one who can stop it, and I'm telling you flat-out, I'm not going to. Same with Syril Ram's.

What I mean is that it's not certain in the same way that the others are.

Sergenth is going to die on move 300 whatever the other snakes do.

But RabidChild's fate depends on the actions of at least one other snake.

See the distinction?

Hikari
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:sighs: The only snake able to affect RabidChild or Syril Tam's life/death is mine, and I'm purposefully causing them both to go to their deaths. There's no way for them to prevent it, and I'm not going to change my path. Why're you arguing with that?

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jbluestein
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Hikari wrote:
:sighs: The only snake able to affect RabidChild or Syril Tam's life/death is mine, and I'm purposefully causing them both to go to their deaths. There's no way for them to prevent it, and I'm not going to change my path. Why're you arguing with that?

I see the distinction that Chris is trying to make. I'm trying to draw a line between predicting other snakes' actions and providing as much information on snake death as I can. As such, while I won't list NiroZ's death until we're clear on exactly when it's going to be, I have no problem with listing RabidChild and Syril Ram's death based on Hikari's claim that he's going to jump on turn 294. If he doesn't jump, well...



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Hikari
Level: Smiter

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I jumped.

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Hikari
Level: Smiter

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Rabscuttle, 308

Unless I'm mistaken, Chaco 313
EDIT: Ack, collisioned by Rabscuttle while editing >.<

NiroZ can't survive any longer than 317 if I'm reading right...

goldenlion, likewise, is doomed no later than 317, but possibly on 309 if eytanz suicides...

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-12-2006 09:05 AM]

Rabscuttle
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2502
Registered: 09-10-2004
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Chaco 313

eytanz
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2708
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Hikari wrote:
goldenlion, likewise, is doomed no later than 317, but possibly on 309 if eytanz suicides...

I can see how I can shorten goldenlion's life, but I can't see why that would be suicide - it seems to me that even in a worst-case scenario of other serpents' choices, this path will be approximately as long as my other choice. What am I missing?

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jbluestein
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eytanz wrote:

Hikari wrote:
goldenlion, likewise, is doomed no later than 317, but possibly on 309 if eytanz suicides...

I can see how I can shorten goldenlion's life, but I can't see why that would be suicide - it seems to me that even in a worst-case scenario of other serpents' choices, this path will be approximately as long as my other choice. What am I missing?

I don't think it's suicide at all.

I mean, being a snake is kind of like suicide to begin with, but you certainly don't die immediately if you take out goldenlion.



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jbluestein
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I'm putting Pinnacle on the Dead Snakes list.

Projected time of death: Turn 309.

Although...he does have other options.

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Chris
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jbluestein wrote:

      Pinnacle       309
      Rabscuttle     309
      Chaco          314

I think I would correct that to:

      Rabscuttle     308
      Chaco          313

I think I might still be missing the point of this 'due to die soon' list. Why did you add Pinnacle to it when you already know his time of death isn't yet fixed?

jbluestein
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Chris wrote:

jbluestein wrote:

      Pinnacle       309
      Rabscuttle     309
      Chaco          314

I think I would correct that to:

      Rabscuttle     308
      Chaco          313

I think I might still be missing the point of this 'due to die soon' list. Why did you add Pinnacle to it when you already know his time of death isn't yet fixed?

Right. For some reason I miscounted those earlier.

As for Pinnacle, he is definitely going to die by that turn -- he may choose to die earlier. If you detect some inconsistency in how I'm doing things, that's probably because I'm behaving inconsistently. I'm not trying to be too rigorous. Just doin' what feels right.

Josh

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eytanz
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Goldenlion will die on turn 309. This is contingent on me bumping next turn, which I will.

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Hikari
Level: Smiter

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Well, my reign of chaos is over... But not before I directly kill three snakes.

Pinnacle, 309 (already mentioned in thread)
Tuttle, 310
Kevin, 318

and then...

Hikari, 324

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[Last edited by Hikari at 09-12-2006 10:23 PM]

jbluestein
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Hikari wrote:
Well, my reign of chaos is over... But not before I directly kill three snakes.

Pinnacle, 309 (already mentioned in thread)
Tuttle, 310
Kevin, 318

and then...

Hikari, 324

Interestingly, had Pinnacle jumped instead of bumped on turn 307, he would have died on turn 308, but then you would have been killed by Tuttle instead of the other way around.


____________________________
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eytanz
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I think I'm dead on turn 318.

Well, at least I made the top 10

If I had bumped instead of jumping last turn, I may have survived several more turns, depending on the actuals on Mikko, Tyrion, and Goldenlion. But I jumped because if Mikko had jumped 3 turns ago, I would also have survived longer than any other path available to me, making it a worthwhile gambit in my opinion.

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Hikari
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I'm actually pretty sure that if Tuttle had bumped instead of jumped at his last choice point, I would've not only killed everyone but gotten into a position to escape to the open areas to the north and survive for another few days. Alas, it didn't happen.

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Hikari
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I don't see how you're dead on 318, eytanz. I see you dead on 328, though.

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Chris
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Hikari wrote:
I don't see how you're dead on 318, eytanz. I see you dead on 328, though.

I guess it was a typo.

eytanz dies on move 328 whatever happens.

eytanz
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Yup, that certainly was a typo. Thanks!

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jbluestein
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10 snakes left, and we have fully-defined paths for five of them.

The five remaining snakes:

Mikko
michthro
trick
Ostegolectr1c
Chris

Of these, I predict that the last three will be michthro, Ostegolectr1c and Chris.

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Timo006
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I think that Mikko will die on turn 342. I can'th see any escape for him. However, If he tries to jump on turn 333, then he will die on turn 337.

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trick
Level: Legendary Smitemaster
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Mikko can survive until turn 346, actually.

- Gerry

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[Last edited by trick at 09-14-2006 03:19 PM : typo]