Hikari
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File: DROD bar chart 4-7-13.png (28.5 KB)
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mrimer wrote:

Hikari wrote:
Is it just me, or does the bar's trajectory in the last week seem to imply a June release if it's carried forward with no attention given to the pre-April readings?

We need visual aids or you're just spreading rumors

OK, fine, May 30.


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[Last edited by Hikari at 04-08-2013 09:50 AM]

mrimer
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See, the bar knows what it's doing.

I'd stick with the prediction that started in April 2012, since more data is theoretically more accurate. In theory.

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Hikari
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One should be careful about making claims like that, though. That -9000 kind of throws things off, hmm? Shouldn't TSS have been released a week ago?

And yes, I know that was a joke.

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mrimer
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That -9000 is quite relevant!

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The spitemaster
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Well at least it wasn't -9001 because that would be UNDER NINE THOUSAND!!!#@!

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TripleM
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File: bar.png (72.4 KB)
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We need more bar-riddle-solvers - may be a correlation here!

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[Last edited by TripleM at 04-14-2013 02:00 AM]

TripleM
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I was wrong.

In other news, 48!

rman
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Well, I said I’d abandon one of the predictions, but given the amount of time that passed, they show different days once again. So let’s do both…

It took the Bar 258 days (from August 3, 2012 to April 18 2013) to advance by 34.5% (from 13.5% to 48%). At this rate (7.5 days per percent, previously 7.4), it will reach 100% in 389 more days, i.e. on May 12, 2014 (was previously May 3, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 358 days (from April 25, 2012 to April 18, 2013) to advance by 48%. This way (7.5 days per percent, previously 7.4) it will reach 100% in 388 days, i.e. on May 11, 2014 (was previously May 3, 2014).

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west.logan
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Oh no! We've regressed!

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mrimer
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west.logan wrote:
Oh no! We've regressed!

Argh! The pressure!

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Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

The Architest
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Oh no, it is hastening in sector TSSBAR to speed 49%!

rman
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It took the Bar 258 days (from August 3, 2012 to April 18 2013) to advance by 35.5% (from 13.5% to 49%). At this rate (7.268 days per percent, previously 7.478), it will reach 100% in 371 more days, i.e. on April 24, 2014 (was previously May 12, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 358 days (from April 25, 2012 to April 18, 2013) to advance by 49%. This way (7.306 days per percent, previously 7.458) it will reach 100% in 373 days, i.e. on April 26, 2014 (was previously May 11, 2014).

Hm, the second one is now later than the first one.

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mrimer
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rman wrote:
Hm, the second one is now later than the first one.

You just can't trust statistics.

Or extrapolations.

Or interpolations.

Or functions that go in an S-curve.

Or any kind of mathematical system within certain domains.

But I do believe in me.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

The spitemaster
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49.5%
The new code that was added was describing how much Beethro likes Apple Cake Sauce.

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TripleM
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File: barpredict.png (11.7 KB)
Downloaded 583 times.
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My line of best fit is currently putting the release date on precisely New Year's Day. Graph:

hyperme
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49.75%

I'm going to assume every other update represents a new puzzle.

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mrimer
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hyperme wrote:
I'm going to assume every other update represents a new puzzle.

That's a decent assumption. This game is getting large (in a good way). It's probably accurate to assume that each percentage point is roughly equivalent to an entire level (or an analogous amount of related feature work or other game content).

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

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[Last edited by mrimer at 04-23-2013 06:56 PM]

DyRsOfDh14
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Delicious 50%

stigant
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So is the bar half full or half empty? Are we half way to TSS or half way to GatEB?

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hyperme
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stigant wrote:
So is the bar half full or half empty? Are we half way to TSS or half way to GatEB?

Half full, since it's being filled. If we were emptying The Bar, it would be half empty.

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skell
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hyperme wrote:

stigant wrote:
So is the bar half full or half empty? Are we half way to TSS or half way to GatEB?

Half full, since it's being filled. If we were emptying The Bar, it would be half empty.

Actually it's at the same time "still half-empty" and "already half-full". That's my point of view. I hate this pessimist-optimist, chose your enemy crapfest.

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rman
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Busy as I was yesterday, I didn’t even have time to check the Bar! (Forgive me, oh Great Bar!) Here goes:

It took the Bar 263 days (from August 3, 2012 to April 23, 2013) to advance by 36.5% (from 13.5% to 50%). At this rate (7.205 days per percent, previously 7.268), it will reach 100% in 360 more days, i.e. on April 18, 2014 (was previously April 24, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 363 days (from April 25, 2012 to April 23, 2013) to advance by 50%. This way (exactly 7.26 days per percent, previously 7.306) it will reach 100% in 363 days, i.e. on April 21, 2014 (was previously April 26, 2014).

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Red-XIII
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So basically it took 1 year for an half. This means that it will take another year for the other half, not bad at all

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west.logan
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Alright, only a year to wait until TSS!

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hyperme
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50.25%

PROGRESS FOR THE PROGRESS BAR.
PUZZLES FOR THE PUZZLE THRONE.

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robin
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50,50%!
We're getting closer

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RabidChild
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50.75!

The spitemaster
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So fast!

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navithmastero
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51%

-nm

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rman
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It took the Bar 270 days (from August 3, 2012 to April 30, 2013) to advance by 37.5% (from 13.5% to 51%). At this rate (exactly 7.2 days per percent, previously 7.205), it will reach 100% in 353 more days, i.e. on April 18, 2014 (was previously April 18, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 370 days (from April 25, 2012 to April 30, 2013) to advance by 51%. This way (7.255 days per percent, previously exactly 7.26) it will reach 100% in 356 days, i.e. on April 21, 2014 (was previously April 21, 2014).

(The dates didn’t change.)

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