navithmastero
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Thirty-nine and a half!

-nm

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Red-XIII
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And now it's 40%!

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rman
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It took the Bar 232 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 23, 2013) to advance by 26.5% (from 13.5% to 40%). At this rate (about 8.8 days per percent, previously about 8.9), it will reach 100% in approximately 525 more days, i.e. on August 30, 2014 (was previously September 15, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 332 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 23, 2013) to advance by 40%. This way (8.3 days per percent, previously about 8.4) it will reach 100% in 498 days, i.e. on August 3, 2014 (was previously August 14, 2014).

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mrimer
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Ooh, now both predictions fall within the same month!

Looks like everything is aligning quite nicely.

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The Architest
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40.25, maybe?

bdwing
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40.5

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navithmastero
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40.75!

-nm

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Blondbeard
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41% It goes so fast!

rman
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It took the Bar 236 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 27, 2013) to advance by 27.5% (from 13.5% to 41%). At this rate (about 8.6 days per percent, previously about 8.8), it will reach 100% in approximately 506 more days, i.e. on August 15, 2014 (was previously August 30, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 336 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 27, 2013) to advance by 41%. This way (about 8.2 days per percent, previously about 8.3) it will reach 100% in about 484 days, i.e. on July 24, 2014 (was previously August 3, 2014).

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west.logan
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File: pred.PNG (37.3 KB)
Downloaded 662 times.
License: Public Domain

For interested parties, here is rman's recent predictions plotted out.



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-Logan

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[Last edited by west.logan at 03-27-2013 02:58 PM]

mrimer
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I say let's stick to the alternate completion prediction. It considers more data.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 03-27-2013 03:55 PM]

The spitemaster
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I just wonder how arbitrary the scale on that graph is?

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RoboBob3000
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Has anybody here considered an April 2013 release? My money's on that.

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bdwing
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41.25%.

That still leaves 58.75% and only four days left if they are going to be ready by this April Fools Day.

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west.logan
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The spitemaster wrote:
I just wonder how arbitrary the scale on that graph is?

Not arbitrary at all. It's set for 30.5 day increments starting at the first of the month. So each line corresponds to a month. 30.5 is chosen to average to 12 months a year.

October has 31 days so the second October is really November 1st. The second December is really January 1st, and January is really February 1st. I don't care to bother trying to label more accurately in Excel. This is for my own amusement.

Nevertheless, there is method to this madness!

____________________________
-Logan

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[Last edited by west.logan at 03-28-2013 02:30 PM]

mrimer
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I think you're quoting the wrong post there, but I like your methods.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 03-28-2013 02:29 PM]

west.logan
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Aha! You are correct. I was wondering how arbitrary that quotation was...

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hyperme
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41.5%

I predict the game will have floors. And maybe walls.

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mrimer
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hyperme wrote:
I predict the game will have floors. And maybe walls.

You could very well be right. You should chime in on the "What do you know about TSS?" thread on the General board!

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Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
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The spitemaster
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41.75%

I wonder what .25% of things done looks like. 15 Lines of Finnished Code.

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The Architest
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The spitemaster wrote:
41.75%

I wonder what .25% of things done looks like. 15 Lines of Finnished Code.

FINLAND MENTIONED, OH GOD!

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[Last edited by The Architest at 03-30-2013 04:37 PM]

mrimer
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I was going to settle for typing an "I see what you did there", but I like your response much better!

There's a lot of effort going into each 0.25% of TSS. We're talking several man-hours of work for each quarter percent. For argument's sake, let's say it's four hours on average per quarter-percent.

If one was typing 15 lines of code in those four hours, with about 50 characters per line of code, on average, then that would end up 15*50=750 characters/4 hours, or about 3 bytes/minute. Now, some people around here might have internet connections at that speed, but not us! We seriously are cranking out mountains of key and button clicks during that time.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

Red-XIII
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mrimer wrote:
There's a lot of effort going into each 0.25% of TSS. We're talking several man-hours of work for each quarter percent. For argument's sake, let's say it's four hours on average per quarter-percent.

Thats' amazing! It looks like TSS will be a pretty big game (bigger than TCB?) with this little information.
Just for curiosity, how many guys are in the TSS's project?

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There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay.
There's just this one, just this rock.
-33th Skywatcher

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[Last edited by mrimer at 03-30-2013 09:30 PM]

mrimer
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Good question. I count that we currently have sixteen people, plus or minus a couple, involved in TSS development. This game is shaping up to be bigger than TCB.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 03-30-2013 09:42 PM]

The spitemaster
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I actually thought that a reasonable number of lines of code for the whole project would be 100000-200000 lines of code. I did 15*4*100=6000 to be funny. Order of magnitudes always work.

Also the Finnish people are very productive. I know at least 5 of them and that is a very good sample size.

____________________________
Last night upon a stair
I met a man that wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish that man would stay away

mrimer
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The spitemaster wrote:
I actually thought that a reasonable number of lines of code for the whole project would be 100000-200000 lines of code. I did 15*4*100=6000 to be funny. Order of magnitudes always work.

Aw, man. You're quite right, but it sounds too much like what some individuals actually do at work, so your joke was lost on me.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

Red-XIII
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And now we're up to 42! The answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything.

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stigant
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What is six times nine?

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Jeff_Ray...
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Pardon me for being a picky person, but isn't it six times seven?

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stigant
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psst

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