Mattcrampy wrote:
But Alefbet has it. Although I'm personally waiting for someone to go, hang on, it's fifty-fifty, so we can actually get an explanation people understand.
Matt
Here's a quick explanation:
- Lets imagine the doors are labelled 1, 2 and 3.
- Since the doors are otherwise identical, lets say you choose door #1.
- The car has a 1/3 chance of being behind door #1, a 1/3 chance of being behind door #2, and a 1/3 chance of being behind door #3.
-- If the car was behind door #1, then the host can either open door #2 or door #3. Either way, the remaining door will not contain a car behind it. Therefore, if the car was behind door #1, switching will make you lose.
-- If the car was behind door #2, then the host can't open door #1 (because you chose it), nor door #2 (because that will reveal the car). He must open door #3. If he does so, switching makes you choose door #2, and you get the car.
-- If the car was behind door #3, then the host can't open door #1 (because you chose it), nor door #3 (because that will reveal the car). He must open door #2. If he does so, switching makes you choose door #3, and you get the car.
So, if the car was behind door #1 switching makes you lose, and behind doors #2 and #3 switching makes you win. So switching is twice as likely to make you win as not switching.
The same logic applies if you choose doors #2 or #3.
____________________________
I got my avatar back! Yay!