bradwall
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One of my predictions is now missing from the tracking thread in the general forum. It is the one that was already marked as "True" (you finding the dime in your sofa). Is there a reason why it is gone?

Zmann
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bradwall wrote:
One of my predictions is now missing from the tracking thread in the general forum. It is the one that was already marked as "True" (you finding the dime in your sofa). Is there a reason why it is gone?

ErikH2000 wrote:
Also in general, I've just decided to stop taking predictions that rely on me or somebody else to divulge private information in order for it to be publicly verifiable. So DiMono's hat prediction is out, because it relies on DiMono making his private information public. (DiMono, BTW, I shipped your hat last week. You should have it soon.) The predictions made by BradWall and ZMann that don't rely on publicly verifiable sources--well, they are reasonable submissions but I am taking them out for consistency.

bradwall
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Zmann wrote:

bradwall wrote:
One of my predictions is now missing from the tracking thread in the general forum. It is the one that was already marked as "True" (you finding the dime in your sofa). Is there a reason why it is gone?

ErikH2000 wrote:
Also in general, I've just decided to stop taking predictions that rely on me or somebody else to divulge private information in order for it to be publicly verifiable. So DiMono's hat prediction is out, because it relies on DiMono making his private information public. (DiMono, BTW, I shipped your hat last week. You should have it soon.) The predictions made by BradWall and ZMann that don't rely on publicly verifiable sources--well, they are reasonable submissions but I am taking them out for consistency.

*Sniff* That was a good one too. Verifiable by asking Erik if it worked. I do have to say that it was a clever one and that I hope it could be reconsidered.
(*A tear drops from Brad’s eye and falls softly on the delicate skin of his quivering arm while typing*).

ErikH2000
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bradwall wrote:
*Sniff* That was a good one too. Verifiable by asking Erik if it worked. I do have to say that it was a clever one and that I hope it could be reconsidered.
(*A tear drops from Brad’s eye and falls softly on the delicate skin of his quivering arm while typing*).

It was a good one, but I want to be consistent that predictions must be verifiable with public information. If we get a bunch of predictions that rely on certain individuals reporting private information to the forum, then it will slow the process down and put pressure on those individuals to report things when maybe they are busy or don't want to be involved.

That reminds me that I also need to remove this prediction of Krammer's:

4. I predict that Mattcrampy will become ill, but not seriously ill. (not yet verified)

I would like to warn everyone participating that this contest may not be terribly fair. I am trying, but with the large number of predictions, it is necessary to make snap decisions about what is acceptable. You all will just have to bear with me and accept that a bit of bad luck might push you out of the winner's circle. To describe a complete set of objective rules up front would require me to have a staff of lawyers and philosophers on hand. And maybe a few consultations with Noam Chomsky.

-Erik

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ErikH2000
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eytanz wrote:

wackhead_uk wrote:
Just one from me: I predict that no-one will use the emoticon within the next week.

That's either about the forums (and thus illegal), or about the entire internet (and thus unverifiable).

Yep, Eytan's right.

-Erik

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RoboBob3000
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That and its appearance in its subsequent quoting has rendered it untrue.

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eytanz
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Well, no, because both Erik and myself quoted it in the same week as the post was made, and he specified it being next week.

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Rabscuttle
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I predict that a JtRH screenshot will be released (before the end of the competition) showing the spawn counter on 16.

I predict that the "Eric Conveys an Emotion" website (http://www.emotioneric.com/) will not be fixed before the end of the competition.

I predict that there will be a new Strong Bad e-mail released next week (it will be the one above "dreamail" at http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail.html) where the e-mail answered will not include a two-letter American state abbreviation at the end.

DiMono
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ErikH2000 wrote:

DiMono wrote:
I Predict I will not receive my DROD hat by the time this contest is over.

I can accept this prediction if you oblige yourself to report whether or not you receive the hat, otherwise there is not an easily verifiable source available to most forum members.

See, the real question here was whether and when you sent the hat. If you hadn't sent it yet, I wouldn't be receiving it. If you want to keep the prediction in the pool, I can bind myself to honestly reveal if/when it arrives.

I Predict 1+1 will continue to equal 5.
I Predict Courtney Love will find herself in the news again due to drugs and/or the law.
I Predict that exactly 3 of my predictions, not including this one, will come true.
I Predict January 20 will arrive later than January 19

[Edited by DiMono at Local Time:01-16-2005 at 02:46 AM]

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ErikH2000
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DiMono wrote:
See, the real question here was whether and when you sent the hat. If you hadn't sent it yet, I wouldn't be receiving it. If you want to keep the prediction in the pool, I can bind myself to honestly reveal if/when it arrives.

Nope, the prediction was taken out along with others of it's type.

I Predict 1+1 will continue to equal 5.

Huh? Why would 1+1 currently equal 5, unless you were listening to a certain Pet Shop Boys song, and even in that case, I point out that he wasn't exactly certain.

-Erik

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MeckMeck GRE
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OK, ill do some more.

I predict that the Dax rises above 4400
I predict that the rebel regime in south Asia lets more help in.
I predict that JtrH will not be deliverd at time (it gets delayed)
I predict FC Bayern will win the first next match
I predict VIVA will stop sending because of financel problems
I predict the next global disaster comes soon
I predict that no predictions above will get true

Look also at the update of my sooner post (Clarification of 2 predictions)

Strabo
Level: Delver
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I predict that on 23/01/05 the JtRH will _still_ be at 89.35%
I predict that the Moonsorrow album 'Verisäkeet' will be released
I predict that there will in major flooding in a European country
I predict that Tony Blair will visit a middle eastern country
I predict that the rover currently running around on mars will stop responding.(I can't remember its name! Is it 'Oportunity'?)

wackhead_uk
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eytanz wrote:
That's either about the forums (and thus illegal), or about the entire internet (and thus unverifiable).

RoboBob3000 wrote:
That and its appearance in its subsequent quoting has rendered it untrue.

Plus the fact that I wrote it in the post, therefore it was immediately wrong.

I suppose I'll have to be a bit more obvious with my jokes in the future.

ErikH2000
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wackhead_uk wrote:
Plus the fact that I wrote it in the post, therefore it was immediately wrong.

I considered that, but you said "in the next week", which could be taken to mean uh... next week.

-Erik


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ErikH2000
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MeckMeck GRE wrote:
I predict that JtrH will not be deliverd at time (it gets delayed)

Since we haven't declared any definite time for release, this isn't verifiable.

I predict the next global disaster comes soon

You should be more specific. Eytan thinks Paris Hilton is a global disaster.

-Erik

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ErikH2000
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I would like to remind people that the burden will be on each contestant to show public sources verifying the accuracy of his predictions. So remember to follow up on your predictions when they become true (or false).

-Erik

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leroy00
Level: Master Delver

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leroy00 wrote:

1. I predict that the Israelis and Palestinians will not let themselves be distracted from the peace process by the attack by palestinian terrorists last night. (Keep your fingers crossed.)

Erik disallowed this prediction, although I think there are some objective ways of proving/disproving this. In any case, although the Palastinians are trying to distance themselves from the attack, I blew the prediction, as you can see in the following two articles.
link1 link2

ErikH2000 wrote:

2. I predict that GWBush will say something stupid OR choke on something edible and pass out. He may or may not be permanently injured.

The first part ("say something stupid") is subjective, so I can't accept this one.

I think we could probably all agree that George has said lots of stupid things in the past, but I won't argue the point. Using common sense as a guideline won't help much either, since it would result in my having to take a poll, so let me restate it: "I predict that GWBush will say something which blatently contradicts the rules of grammar of the English language OR choke on something edible and pass out." Is that acceptable?

4. I predict that Morgan Freeman and Meryl Streep will win Golden Globes this weekend.

I blew this one as well. Look here.

5. I predict that the space capsule Cassini-Huygens will crash on the surface of Titan (i.e. not carry out a controlled landing).

It took me a while to find a link stating explicitly that the probe had safely landed, but I did finally find one here. (I.e. this prediction is also wrong.)

Although I am tempted to make a few more predictions to up my score, this topic is crowded enough already, so I won't. So the record thus far is 3 predictions wrong, five predictions pending.

--leroy

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eytanz
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Some random observation regarding prediction outcomes:

True predictions:

Joker's prediction #20 (I predict a new Weebl and Bob episode.) - he made it on Jan 13th and a new episode came out Jan 14th.

Rowrow's prediction #1 (I predict that there won't be more than 300,000 deaths from tsunamis by the end of the week) - prediction was made Friday the 14th, was true by the end of that week (Sun 16th).

Rowrow's prediction #3 (I predict that there won't be more than 50 states in America by the end of the week) - prediction was made Friday the 14th, was true by the end of that week (Sun 16th).

False predictions:

DiMono's prediction #5 (I Predict that episode 47 of Red vs Blue will be released on sunday, January 16) - the episode has been released on Monday, Jan 17th.


[Edited by eytanz at Local Time:01-17-2005 at 02:04 PM]

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rowrow
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My prediction about it not raining in los angeles is also true.

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krammer
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I wrote:
I predict that it will rain in London at some time between January the 14th and January the 17th.

Looking at the BBC London weather centre indicates that it's rainy today - not quite sure how else to confirm that.

United beat Liverpool as well - so one to whoever said that (I think that was predicted by someone.

And is it too late to add any more predictions?

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NoahT
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krammer wrote:
And is it too late to add any more predictions?

4. Predictions may not be submitted after 01/22/2005 4:00PM.

And I have another prediction:

I predict George Bush will lie at least three times on TV within the next week.

-Noah

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My stuff:

eytanz
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NoahT wrote:

krammer wrote:
And is it too late to add any more predictions?

4. Predictions may not be submitted after 01/22/2005 4:00PM.

And I have another prediction:

I predict George Bush will lie at least three times on TV within the next week.

-Noah

I'm not sure that's verifiable in the current phrasing. I mean, George Bush (the president? his dad?) may well say 3 things that you and I think are lies, but that doesn't mean that they actually are lies. Maybe he'll say "Saddam had WMDs", and we won't believe him, but actually Saddam was just really good at hiding them.

Furthermore, there's always the chance that he'll say stuff we believe, but are actually lies. He may say "This morning I had a cup of coffee" when he actually did not.

Also, he may say stuff that's wrong, but believe it himself. Does that count as a lie?

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TripleM
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I predict West Indies will beat Pakistan tomorrow. (cricket)
I predict Australia will beat West Indies on the 21st.

Now I'm pretty sure that the English premier league soccer games will be played by the cutoff time.. if I'm wrong, then you can ignore these:

I predict Manchester United will beat Aston Villa.
I predict Chelsea will beat Portsmouth.
I predict there will be at least one draw in the round (not including the Arsenal v Newcastle match, which I think is after the cutoff.)

ErikH2000
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Leroy, thanks for verifying your predictions. I added your GWB prediction. I still consider the Israel/Palestine prediction to be too vague for verification.

-Erik

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ErikH2000
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rowrow wrote:
My prediction about it not raining in los angeles is also true.

Do you have some public sources to back that up? Note that you said that it wouldn't rain until the end of the week, so we are looking for proof that it didn't rain from Sunday to oh... Wednesday, and that it rained at least once on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. I will also accept no rain from Monday to Thurday with rain on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday (using Sunday as end of week instead of beginning).

-Erik

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ErikH2000
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NoahT wrote:
I predict George Bush will lie at least three times on TV within the next week.

Noah, I have to agree with Eytan. Sometimes I find it pretty amazing how impossible it seems to show that a politician has lied, even when he does it all the time in obvious ways. They can redefine words, feign ignorance and memory loss, blame underlings, go "off the record", talk about something else that is "more important", or just simply ignore whoever is accusing them. There will never be a headline in a major newspaper that says "George [W.] Bush Lied".

-Erik

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ErikH2000
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TripleM wrote:
Now I'm pretty sure that the English premier league soccer games will be played by the cutoff time.. if I'm wrong, then you can ignore these:

I predict Manchester United will beat Aston Villa.
I predict Chelsea will beat Portsmouth.
I predict there will be at least one draw in the round (not including the Arsenal v Newcastle match, which I think is after the cutoff.)

Hmm. Well, you have to understand that I don't follow sports in general, let alone UK sports. Could you either submit these predictions at a later time when it is clear to you they are relevant, or if you prefer, rewrite them so that the extra condition is inside of the prediction. (I would do that myself, I'm likely to botch it due to my ignorance.)

-Erik

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Fafnir
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4. I predict that the press will find something out about at least one celebrity that he/she didn't want them to know.

See here. I'd call the guy a celebrity, and I doubt he wanted anyone to find out he was guilty of tax evasion.

One other thing - can we have one or two days after the deadline to do research for predictions? For example, I'll have to scrounge up ten pieces of malware, and that will be much easier if I can start past the 23rd so I can survey the full range of the contest. In addition, negative predictions (e.g. the Harry Potter book won't be delayed) can only be proved past the deadline, so we'll need extra time to prove those (e.g. in the Harry Potter case by posting a current link to JK Rowling and her publisher's websites)

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TripleM
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ErikH2000 wrote:

TripleM wrote:
Now I'm pretty sure that the English premier league soccer games will be played by the cutoff time.. if I'm wrong, then you can ignore these:

I predict Manchester United will beat Aston Villa.
I predict Chelsea will beat Portsmouth.
I predict there will be at least one draw in the round (not including the Arsenal v Newcastle match, which I think is after the cutoff.)

Hmm. Well, you have to understand that I don't follow sports in general, let alone UK sports. Could you either submit these predictions at a later time when it is clear to you they are relevant, or if you prefer, rewrite them so that the extra condition is inside of the prediction. (I would do that myself, I'm likely to botch it due to my ignorance.)

-Erik

OK, after strenuous calculations of time zones.. .. yeah, they're OK. The games finish around 7-10 hours before the cutoff time.

ErikH2000
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TripleM wrote:
OK, after strenuous calculations of time zones.. .. yeah, they're OK. The games finish around 7-10 hours before the cutoff time.

Oh, you were talking about the contest cutoff time. I was thinking it was something else related to the sport that I didn't get. Apologies for the confusion. I'll add those new predictions for you.

-Erik

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