Fafnir
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 315
Registered: 11-05-2004
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This is just to prove that I haven't edited the new prediction:

10. I predict that at least two new (computer) pieces of malware will be created (this includes virii, trojans, worms, adware etc.)

____________________________
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Absolute stupidity
Kills absolutely.

DiMono
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1181
Registered: 09-13-2003
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I Predict that the JtRH Progress Bar will reach 90%
I Predict that there will be a snowfall greater than three inches in Toronto
I Predict that there will be a bombing in Iraq in which an American soldier is killed
I Predict someone will try to steal money from a Tsunami charity
I Predict that episode 47 of Red vs Blue will be released publicly on sunday, January 16

There's a few for me, if I think of any more I'll add them.

Edit: Had to include the word publicly in my last prediction, since sponsors get the video a couple days early.

[Edited by DiMono at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 02:37 PM]

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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
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leroy00 wrote:
1. I predict that the Israelis and Palestinians will not let themselves be distracted from the peace process by the attack by palestinian terrorists last night. (Keep your fingers crossed.)

This doesn't seem verifiable to me. You would need to describe a more concrete event before I would accept this, such as a certain statement from a public official.

2. I predict that GWBush will say something stupid OR choke on something edible and pass out. He may or may not be permanently injured.

The first part ("say something stupid") is subjective, so I can't accept this one.

-Erik

____________________________
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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
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Fafnir wrote:
I'll be using this post to note the verification of my predictions.

I'd rather you guys post new replies. It's really impractical to scan through the entire topic to look for new edits. Don't be surprised if I miss them and you have to call attention to them.

4. I predict that the press will find something out about at least one celebrity that he/she didn't want them to know.

Do you count Prince Harry's Nazi sympathies?

The burden of proof is on you to show that he didn't want people to know about that snazzy outfit of his.

Thanks for the update on your predictions, Fafnir.

-Erik

____________________________
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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
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Joker, can you pick out 30 or less predictions from your big list? I will add these to the tracking page. If I don't hear back from you before Local Time:01-15-2005 at 12:00 AM, I plan to take the first thirty as submissions. I am worried about some of your predictions becoming true during this time between your first post and me waiting for you to pick a subset, in which case some of your predictions would unfairly go to waste.

-Erik

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TripleM
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1377
Registered: 02-05-2003
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Yay, Australia beat West Indies. (easily verifiable by a search)

I'm allowed to make more predictions now, right?

ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
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TripleM wrote:
I'm allowed to make more predictions now, right?

Yeah, sure--up to 30 total.

-Erik

____________________________
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Fafnir
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 315
Registered: 11-05-2004
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Actually, I'd like to up the stakes slightly on my last prediction. Make it at least ten pieces of malware - that should impress a few people.

____________________________
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Absolute stupidity
Kills absolutely.

ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
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Fafnir wrote:
Actually, I'd like to up the stakes slightly on my last prediction. Make it at least ten pieces of malware - that should impress a few people.

Okay, no problem, but only because it is not Local Time:01-15-2005 at 12:00 AM yet. In negative 1042 weeks, 3 days, changes and retractions won't be allowed.

-Erik

____________________________
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DiMono
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1181
Registered: 09-13-2003
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I Predict I will not receive my DROD hat by the time this contest is over.
I Predict my next prediction will come true.
I Predict my previous prediction will be false.

____________________________
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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
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DiMono wrote:
I Predict I will not receive my DROD hat by the time this contest is over.

I can accept this prediction if you oblige yourself to report whether or not you receive the hat, otherwise there is not an easily verifiable source available to most forum members.

I Predict my next prediction will come true.
I Predict my previous prediction will be false.

Bleh. Stupid paradoxes. I do not like them.

-Erik

____________________________
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rowrow
Level: Smiter
Rank Points: 432
Registered: 08-17-2004
IP: Logged

I love the "keeping Idiots busy style" Who doesn't?

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Doom
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 3323
Registered: 07-05-2004
IP: Logged

I'm just saying that this whole prediction thing is getting far too confusing. All messy things about editing predictions, changing them, adding them, deciding if they're acceptable, Erik trying to keep track of them. I'm not going to enter in this one.

And DiMono, what's a DROD hat?

ErikH2000 wrote
otherwise there is not an easily verifiable source available to most forum members.

Some Citizen thing? Bleh. If I can't even know what's it about, I can't rate it properly.

[Edited by Doom at Local Time:01-17-2005 at 05:38 AM]

Stuwy
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 212
Registered: 04-10-2003
IP: Logged

- I predict that something very obscure, yet awesome will change today's trashy music fad and slowly build up a new era of it.

- I predict that somebody in 3 months will die from "DROD Fever". By playing DROD for over 24 hours he will beat and smite his way through Dugan's Dungeon. (JTRL?) After his relief he will have a heart attack from his excitement causing a quick and bad way to die. DRODers will honour him for his bravery in delving in the dungeon and clearing it in under a day.

[Edited by Stuwy at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 11:11 PM]

ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Stuwy wrote:
- I predict that something very obscure, yet awesome will change today's trashy music fad and slowly build up a new era of it.

Sorry, but there is no way to objectively evaluate what constitutes "today's trashy music fad" or when a new era of "it" will have arrived.

- I predict that somebody in 3 months will die from "DROD Fever". By playing DROD for over 24 hours he will beat and smite his way through Dugan's Dungeon. (JTRL?) After his relief he will have a heart attack from his excitement causing a quick and bad way to die. DRODers will honour him for his bravery in delving in the dungeon and clearing it in under a day.

This prediction goes against the rule about time limit, so it can't be accepted either.

-Erik

____________________________
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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
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Thanks for pruning, Joker.

joker5 wrote:
I predict that the reader of this prediction will see at least one hobo before the due date if they walk through the downtown area of the nearest urban area for at least five minutes.
I predict that there will be no hailstorms that the reader of this prediction experiences before the due date.

These aren't acceptable. Each one is actually a multitude of predictions, one for each reader of the prediction. This makes them not easily verifiable.

Also in general, I've just decided to stop taking predictions that rely on me or somebody else to divulge private information in order for it to be publicly verifiable. So DiMono's hat prediction is out, because it relies on DiMono making his private information public. (DiMono, BTW, I shipped your hat last week. You should have it soon.) The predictions made by BradWall and ZMann that don't rely on publicly verifiable sources--well, they are reasonable submissions but I am taking them out for consistency.

-Erik

____________________________
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Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2388
Registered: 05-29-2003
IP: Logged

I predict that:

Australia, or a team with an Australian player in it, will be defeated in a game of cricket (twenty-twenty, one day or test) that begins within the next two weeks.

Something will come to light regarding the misuse of donations by a charity working in the Indian Ocena tsunami-affected region.

There will not be any new moves, serious or otherwise, by an American Democrat politician to either bring President Bush's term to a premature end or to raise candidates for the 2008 election. Any moves that have been made before this prediction are not covered, and can't really be "predicted".

The current #1 song on the American charts will change twice in the next two weeks.

"Forum Games" will have at least 50 topics.

There will be a major health scare in the United States within the next month.

Matt

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Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2388
Registered: 05-29-2003
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Mattcrampy wrote:
"Forum Games" will have at least 50 topics.
Matt

I should clarify - "Forum Games" will have at least 50 topic within the next two weeks.

Matt

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eytanz
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2708
Registered: 02-05-2003
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Mattcrampy wrote:

Mattcrampy wrote:
"Forum Games" will have at least 50 topics.
Matt

I should clarify - "Forum Games" will have at least 50 topic within the next two weeks.

Matt

That's an illegal prediction as it involves the forums.

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eytanz
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2708
Registered: 02-05-2003
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Some more predictions by me:

I predict that no American senator will be photographed any time this weekend reading the book "The Grammar of Time Reference in Yukatek Maya" by J. Bohnemeyer.

I predict that neither the American nor the British legislature will pass a law that will add a new letter to the English alphabet between S and T.

I predict that the population of Portugal will not exceed that of India.

I predict that Paris Hilton won't do anything that can be described, without irony, as "a stunning display of artistic talent"

I predict that if one martian lands on Earth next week wearing a helmet, all the martians that land next week will wear helmets.




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NoahT
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1150
Registered: 06-17-2003
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For now I'll just do three, but I may do more later.

I predict the Banda Aceh shore will not grow in size within the next two weeks.

I predict at least 45 US soldiers in Iraq will be killed within the next two weeks.

I predict the basketball team of my hometown will lose their next game against the basketball team of Erik's hometown (Warriors vs. Sonics).

-Noah

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My stuff:

ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Mattcrampy wrote:
There will not be any new moves, serious or otherwise, by an American Democrat politician to either bring President Bush's term to a premature end or to raise candidates for the 2008 election. Any moves that have been made before this prediction are not covered, and can't really be "predicted".

I need something more concrete to verify. Also in general, anti-predictions, i.e. "this thing will not happen" are problematic. Who will read every single relevant article to determine if something did not happen? Other similar submitted predictions are probably going to get axed.

"Forum Games" will have at least 50 topics.

Can't predict things related to the forum.

-Erik

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dev journals | twitch stream | youtube archive (NSFW)

ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
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eytanz wrote:
I predict that no American senator will be photographed any time this weekend reading the book "The Grammar of Time Reference in Yukatek Maya" by J. Bohnemeyer.

An anti-prediction. In this case easy to guess the result, but very difficult to verify since nobody will be looking at every single photograph coming into print over the next few weeks. And to make matters worse, you said "photographed", so technically it would be necessary to prove that the photo had not been shot during the period, never mind published.

I predict that Paris Hilton won't do anything that can be described, without irony, as "a stunning display of artistic talent"

Yours and others' opinions of Paris Hilton's achievements would be subjective, so this is also not verifiable.

-Erik

____________________________
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eytanz
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2708
Registered: 02-05-2003
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Come to think of it, I don't think my martian prediction is verifyable either (since the martians may be landing in secret, and even if we hear about some martians landing, there may be others we don't know about).



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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
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A few more "anti-predictions" were removed following my thinking that they require a thorough examination of all the news to know that the event described did not occur.

If an event is so startling that it would certainly appear on the front page of every major newspaper, then I let this anti-prediction stay. For example, any news about the presence of martians would be completely ubiquitous, so a prediction concerning the lack of martians is verifiable. Or a more down-to-earth example: a prediction stating that the US does not send troups to a foreign country is easily verifiable.

From Joker5, I removed:

6. I predict that we will hear nothing of Guantanamo Bay, Saddam Hussein, or Osama bin Laden from any major newspapers or any White House statements until and unless Bush mentions them in a speech. (not yet verified)

11. I predict no major games that are being produced by a brand name company (Like Lionhead, Rare, etc) or by first party groups will be delayed. (not yet verified)

18. I predict that no one on this forum will hear anything about the Native Americans unless they are studying American History. (not yet verified)

16. I predict that no third-world countries will declare that they possess WMD. (not yet verified)

17. I predict that no third-world countries will deny that they have WMD. (not yet verified)

From noaht:

1. I predict the Banda Aceh shore will not grow in size within the next two weeks. (not yet verified)

I may reconsider removing this last one if Noah can describe how such a thing is verifiable.

-Erik

____________________________
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ErikH2000
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2796
Registered: 02-04-2003
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eytanz wrote:
Come to think of it, I don't think my martian prediction is verifyable either (since the martians may be landing in secret, and even if we hear about some martians landing, there may be others we don't know about).

Yeah, but...

It is hard to come up with consistent standards for this thing, and I'm not going put on my Bertrand Russell suit. If we get seriously metaphysical, then somebody is bound to ask that stupid question, "but how do *I* know that anything exists?" and then I will just shut down DROD.net forever. Dropkick the server off a cliff into the ocean if it comes to that.

-Erik

____________________________
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Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2388
Registered: 05-29-2003
IP: Logged

This is harder than I thought.

I guess I still have four predictions, though.

With all of my predictions, I assume that they would be covered in a nightly news bulletin or appear on Google News if they're of a newsworthy nature. I couldn't think of what I'd have to search on for the political one, so I guess that one would have to slide.

Matt

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Fafnir
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 315
Registered: 11-05-2004
IP: Logged

1. I predict that at least one company will fire more than twenty people at once.

Yup - Oracle's firing 5,000 over the course of 10 days. See here.

____________________________
Stupidity kills.
Absolute stupidity
Kills absolutely.

wackhead_uk
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 352
Registered: 06-21-2004
IP: Logged

Just one from me: I predict that no-one will use the emoticon within the next week.

eytanz
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2708
Registered: 02-05-2003
IP: Logged

wackhead_uk wrote:
Just one from me: I predict that no-one will use the emoticon within the next week.

That's either about the forums (and thus illegal), or about the entire internet (and thus unverifiable).

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