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Caravel Forum : Caravel Boards : Contests : Predict the Future. (Our first contest of the new year.)
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ErikH2000
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icon Predict the Future. (+2)  
Any chumpie can make guesses about the future, but who can truly predict it? I want to find out, and this time I won't get taken in by the huckster phonies out there. No, I mean it! If you say the world is ending in 2006, I'm not automatically going to pull out my credit card and ask if you are selling a book.

To find the true prophets among us, I propose a challenge: you make predictions and we see how many come true.

Rules

1. To submit a prediction to the contest, you should post it here in a reply to this topic. In the body of the message you must prefix your prediction with "I predict ", as in "I predict George W. Bush will resign from his presidency." If you omit this prefix, your prediction will not be considered submitted.

2. You must submit a minimum of three predictions to be entered into the contest. No more than 30 predictions may be submitted.

3. No predictions may be retracted or edited once submitted.

4. Predictions may not be submitted after Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM. That is in negative 765 weeks, 2 days.

5. Any type of discussion about predictions is allowed at any time.

6. The prediction must indicate something that will happen between the time of submission and Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM. It must be possible for most people on the forum to easily verify the truthfulness of the prediction. A prediction that doesn't meet these criteria won't be used in later evaluation.

7. The prediction should be something outside of the contestant's control. It should be, practically speaking, impossible for the contestant to influence the event which has been predicted. To avoid problems related to this, no predictions involving the forum will be accepted.

8. You are allowed to specify a margin of error for predictions, i.e. "I predict Microsoft stock will fall 50 points by 1/22, give or take 10 points."

9. Some time after 1/23 all of the predictions that have come true will be put into a poll. Everyone will be asked to rate each prediction on a scale of 1 to 10 by its impressiveness, or in other words, to what extent the successful prediction seems to indicate amazing capabilities of the predictor.

10. Contestants are obligated to rate their own predictions as "10".

11. Each contestant will be given an overall rating that is the product of impressiveness and accuracy. Accuracy is determined by dividing the number of successful predictions by the total number of predictions submitted by that person. Impressiveness is the mean average of the ratings on individual predictions.

12. The contestant with the highest overall rating is the first place winner. And we will get two runner-ups using the same criterion.

Prizes

First prize winner gets a copy of the DROD: Journey to Rooted Hold CD or an item of his choosing from the DROD Store. He also gets 100 rank points. Second and third prize winners get 50 and 25 rank points, respectively. If you have never entered a DROD contest before and make the three required submissions for this contest, then you will receive a rookie bonus of 10 rank points.

I can't wait to expose you all for the despicable frauds you are!

Update 1/13: You can see all the accepted predictions in one place here.

-Erik

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[Last edited by ErikH2000 at 07-03-2006 04:11 AM]
01-13-2005 at 05:05 AM
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TripleM
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How 'big' must these predictions be? Like, I could predict someone will be born in the next week. Thats a bit too obvious of an example, but there should be some way of deciding whether a prediction is too easy or not.
Great idea for the contest anyway!
01-13-2005 at 05:27 AM
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ErikH2000
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Hmm. That's a good question.

Let's say a "10" of impressiveness would be things like predicting an earthquake. Around "5" are things like predicting a sports team will win a game. "1" is stuff that is really obvious or likely to happen, like "it will rain someplace in the United States". These are just ideas of how things could be rated--people will vote how they like.

You want to go for more impressive predictions for a better overall rating, but if you get too risky, they will be inaccurate and bring your overall rating down. So it's up to you to find the balance.

Also, anyone may submit a prediction at any time. Somebody must have the courage to be the first!

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 05:42 AM
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MeckMeck GRE
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Ok, 5 things ? Well....

I predict A big single act of terror will happen bringing hundrets of peoples to death.

(Sounds too bad)

I predict The new leader of Palästina will make peace in Israel

I predict Europa will be hitten by a heavy snow fall.

I predict A accident with EMP will turn of a whole citys power supply

I predict VfB Stuttgard (German Football Club) will be 2nd at the 31. Jan

Thats all.

[Edited by MeckMeck GRE at Local Time:01-13-2005 at 06:33 PM]

[Edited by MeckMeck GRE at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 01:08 PM: Got a Email which said I should classificate my predictions]
01-13-2005 at 03:32 PM
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Doom
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I'll see if my crystal ball shows anything interesting during the next few days...

Oh, and MeckMeck GRE. There are a few things in the rules.
quote:
Ok, 5 things ? Well....
2. You may make any number of predictions you wish, but to be officially entered into the contest, you must submit a minimum of three predictions.
quote:
Erik will get at least +8 Ranks Points for that game
7. The prediction should be something outside of the contestant's control. It should be, practically speaking, impossible for the contestant to influence the event which has been predicted. To avoid problems related to this, no predictions involving the forum will be accepted.
01-13-2005 at 03:41 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
MeckMeck GRE wrote:
Ok, 5 things ? Well....

Doom's points I agree with, but also if you want to submit your entry you must prefix each prediction with "I predict". So if you say "I predict a big single act of terror will happen bringing hundrets of peoples to death." then it is submitted. Otherwise, you're just playing around, which is fine too.

-Erik


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01-13-2005 at 04:55 PM
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masonjason
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I predict that this prediction will not come true.
I predict that Disasterlabs' "Evil on the Attack" will be released on 21 Jan 2005.
I predict that Martin Luther King will rise from his grave on 17 Jan 2005.

Can I add to these later?

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01-13-2005 at 05:12 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
masonjason wrote:
I predict that this prediction will not come true.
I predict that Disasterlabs' "Evil on the Attack" will be released on 21 Jan 2005.
I predict that Martin Luther King will rise from his grave on 17 Jan 2005.

Can I add to these later?

Sure! I am not sure what to say about the first one, though.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 05:13 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
I predict that this prediction will not come true.

Ah, I figured out what to say! >>ahem<<

Since it is impossible for the prediction to come true, it won't be accepted as submission. (Note that I didn't say the prediction was false.) It will be accepted as an example of being too clever for one's own good.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 05:27 PM
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eytanz
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icon Re: Predict the Future. (+1)  
- I predict that something will happen, at somepoint, to someone, in a manner that totally doesn't involve the DROD forum.
- I predict that either it will rain in Spain on Tuesday, Jan 22nd, or not.
- I predict that the New York Times will not use the word "Rutabaga" anywhere on the front page on any day not starting with a T between tomorrow (Friday the 14th) and the 22nd.
- I predict that the New York Times will not use the word "Rutabaga" anywhere on the front page on days starting with T, either.
- I predict that the no player in the New York Mets will win the Miss America pageant at any point next week.

Removed on the grounds of being too difficult to confirm (note Erik's post on the matter below):
- that at least 3 out of a sample of any 5 random people surveyed on the street would say that it's more important that predictions be accurate than impressive.

[Edited by eytanz at Local Time:01-13-2005 at 11:21 PM]

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01-13-2005 at 05:43 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
eytanz wrote:
- I predict that at least 3 out of a sample of any 5 random people surveyed on the street would say that it's more important that predictions be accurate than impressive.

I'm not going to check this by going out on the street, but when I put the simple question "Is it more important for a prediction to be accurate or impressive?" to my wife, she said "impressive". My suggestion is that other forumites might ask the same question to different people and report back on results.

Eytan, it looks like your strategy is to have very good accuracy with unimpressive predictions. We will see how that works for you!

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 06:00 PM
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stigant
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I predict that if it does rain in spain, then the rain will fall mainly on the plain.

I predict that at least 20 people will die as a direct consequence of the fighting in Iraq between now and the end of this contest.

I predict that GWB will not pronounce "nuclear" correctly between now and the end of the contest.

I predict that the Nasdaq will top 2100 (currently at 2086) sometime in the next week.

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01-13-2005 at 06:29 PM
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Tim
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ErikH2000 wrote:
7. The prediction should be something outside of the contestant's control. It should be, practically speaking, impossible for the contestant to influence the event which has been predicted. To avoid problems related to this, no predictions involving the forum will be accepted.

Can I predict anything about JtRH? I'm not involved in it in any way.

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01-13-2005 at 06:30 PM
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eytanz
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quote:
ErikH2000 wrote:
quote:
eytanz wrote:
- I predict that at least 3 out of a sample of any 5 random people surveyed on the street would say that it's more important that predictions be accurate than impressive.

I'm not going to check this by going out on the street, but when I put the simple question "Is it more important for a prediction to be accurate or impressive?" to my wife, she said "impressive". My suggestion is that other forumites might ask the same question to different people and report back on results.


Was she on the street when you asked her the question? Otherwise, it doesn't count...

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01-13-2005 at 07:15 PM
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bradwall
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My predictions between now and when the competition is complete:

1) I predict that PostgreSQL will release their full version of their 8.0 database. Although it is scheduled to happen, they have pushed this date back and back every week for the past couple of months. They keep coming up with new beta versions and new release candidate versions. It is (what people say) just going to be pushed back again (probably early next month), but my prediction is that it will finally happen before this contest is over.

2) I predict that Erik will search his sofa(s) (in, under, around, between the cusions, etc.) and find between .03 and .99 cents. Look Erik... it is really there!

3) I predict that my flight from Portland to Salt Lake City will land at least 10 minutes late. The flight number is 1047 and is scheduled to land in Salt Lake City on January 21 at 3:40 PM.

How to check my predictions:

1) Check PostgreSQL's web site to see if it is a download www.postgresql.org)

2) Ask Erik how much money he found.

3) Check http://www.slcairport.com on January 21st to see how the flight turned out. On the site, go to Flight Information, then to Arivals and Departures. On the 21st, you can check the flight number 1047.

01-13-2005 at 07:16 PM
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Accurate (probably):

I predict that at least one company will fire more than twenty people at once.
I predict that there will be at least one scientific discovery.
I predict that there will be at least one tectonic event.
I predict that the press will find something out about at least one celebrity that he/she didn't want them to know.
I predict that the ID card scheme in the UK will remain on track.
I predict that the Dow Jones index will fall by 2% or more (going by Yahoo's stats).
I predict that no delay will be announced regarding the new Harry Potter book (a bit more risky, this one)
I predict that a new 'issue' with one of Micro$oft's products' security will be discovered.
I predict that if an act of terror occurs, George Bush will try to use it to justify the war in Iraq. Yes, I know there's no connection.

Impressive:

I predict that the age of Aquarius will begin seven years early, and the Raelian mothership will come to take us true believers to a paradise beyond our wildest imaginings. Join us...
I predict that the Democrats will rise against Bush and form a separate nation.
I predict that JtRH will be delayed by a year.
I predict that a meteorite will fall, land in Matt's basement, and upon entry to infinite space immediately become discombobulated. The planet will be saved.
I predict that Richard Simmons will be discovered to be an alien cyborg, sent to test our pain resistance (see first prediction).
I predict that the person who invented the tie's diary will be found, and it will conclusively demonstrate that he intended it as a cruel practical joke on humanity.
I predict that, at the instant they have finished reading this prediction, every person on the forum will think: "Cheese!"

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01-13-2005 at 07:27 PM
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quote:
eytanz wrote:
- I predict that at least 3 out of a sample of any 5 random people surveyed on the street would say that it's more important that predictions be accurate than impressive.
Since you say *any* 5 random people, we can disprove this prediction by finding three people who will say, on the street, that it's more important for a prediction to be impressive than accurate, because those three people would be chosen to all be in *some* set of 5 random people together, given enough sets of 5 random people. If it were the first 5 people you see on the street, then it might be harder to disprove.

In effort to help decide if this was true or not, I asked three people over my lunch break, on the street, which was more important. The answers I got were: "Huh?", "What?", and "Impressive." And those first two looked really confused.

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01-13-2005 at 07:29 PM
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I predict that Aston Villa will be 11th in the Premiership on January the 23rd.
I predict that it will rain in London at some time between January the 14th and January the 17th.
I predict that DROD will not be mentioned on the BBC homepage www.bbc.co.uk) on January 20th.
I predict that Mattcrampy will become ill, but not seriously ill.

Note that the statement in this line will not win this contest.

[Edited by krammer at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 05:41 PM]

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01-13-2005 at 07:46 PM
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ErikH2000
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stigant wrote:
I predict that if it does rain in spain, then the rain will fall mainly on the plain.

I'm not accepting this one unless you can demonstrate that it is easily verifiable.

And I feel very silly about this response.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 08:34 PM
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ErikH2000
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Tim wrote:
Can I predict anything about JtRH? I'm not involved in it in any way.

I'm wary, but go ahead. If I don't like the prediction for some reason, I might decide not to accept it.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 08:38 PM
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ErikH2000
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eytanz wrote:
Was she on the street when you asked her the question? Otherwise, it doesn't count...

I changed rule #6 on you. I'm now asking that predictions be easily verifiable. I don't wanna go out on the street and ask random people what they think. Way too much work!

A strange thing about this contest is that I must evaluate silly predictions in a serious way.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 08:42 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
Fafnir wrote:
Impressive:

I predict that the age of Aquarius will begin seven years early, and the Raelian mothership will come to take us true believers to a paradise beyond our wildest imaginings. Join us...
I predict that the Democrats will rise against Bush and form a separate nation.
I predict that JtRH will be delayed by a year.
I predict that a meteorite will fall, land in Matt's basement, and upon entry to infinite space immediately become discombobulated. The planet will be saved.
I predict that Richard Simmons will be discovered to be an alien cyborg, sent to test our pain resistance (see first prediction).
I predict that the person who invented the tie's diary will be found, and it will conclusively demonstrate that he intended it as a cruel practical joke on humanity.
I predict that, at the instant they have finished reading this prediction, every person on the forum will think: "Cheese!"

These are funny, but I don't think you intended them to be real entries in the contest. I will give you a chance to fix them, if you like. Just remove "I predict" from the beginning and they won't be real.

In fact, everyone here who has already made "joke" predictions they don't really want entered has one opportunity to edit their posts to remove "I predict" from the beginning. Tomorrow, the opportunity is gone.

Sorry to seem so humorless. I do appreciate the jokes, but I think it's going to be hard to keep this all straight unless I play the stickler.

-Erik

[Edited by ErikH2000 at Local Time:01-13-2005 at 09:20 PM]

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01-13-2005 at 08:48 PM
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stigant
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quote:
quote:
quote:

stigant wrote:
I predict that if it does rain in spain, then the rain will fall mainly on the plain.


I'm not accepting this one unless you can demonstrate that it is easily verifiable.

And I feel very silly about this response.

-Erik



Hmmmm, ok. If I can verify that it didn't rain in Spain, then my prediction is true, right?

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01-13-2005 at 09:30 PM
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ErikH2000
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stigant wrote:
Hmmmm, ok. If I can verify that it didn't rain in Spain, then my prediction is true, right?

That is true, but otherwise you'd be obliged to provide some sources showing where it rained and that the land was mostly flat in the places that it did rain. These sources would need to be something most of the people on the forum could easily see themselves, i.e. a report on the internet understandable to English speakers. Complicated, eh? If you wish, you may withdraw your prediction by removing the "I predict" or the whole prediction. But like I said before, you and other people can only do that today as a little grace period for getting comfortable with the rules.

Hey, is Spain mostly flat? If that is true, then this is probably moot. :-O

-Erik

[Edited by ErikH2000 at Local Time:01-13-2005 at 09:38 PM]

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01-13-2005 at 09:37 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
krammer wrote:
I predict that DROD will not be mentioned anywhere on the front page of any British daily newspaper in the next week.

This is not easily verifiable. It would take access to many resources, knowledge of UK publications, and several hours to verify the claim.

However, if you were to state specific papers and they all had an online presence, then it would be acceptable.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 09:41 PM
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stigant
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If you wish, you may withdraw your prediction by removing the "I predict" or the whole prediction. But like I said before, you and other people can only do that today as a little grace period for getting comfortable with the rules.



bah! where's the fun in that?

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01-13-2005 at 09:52 PM
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TripleM
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Seeing as I'm from New Zealand, I'll probably find it easiest just to predict some sports results from around here.

I predict that Australia will beat the West Indies in this afternoons one-day cricket game. (If you don't know anything about cricket, I'll tell you Australia are the world champions, but West Indies are another very good team).

I predict that the New Zealand Breakers will win tonights game against the Melbourne Tigers in NBL basketball. (Breakers are last (11th), Melbourne are 4th, and just beat 3rd. Almost impossible, the way we're playing.)

I predict Liverpool will beat Man United this weekend.

(First two results can be found on [url www.thescore.com.au, as one example.)


By the way, how will you get accurate 'impressiveness'es? If we will be making all ours 10/10, and everyone else in the competition will make them 1/10, ..


01-13-2005 at 10:00 PM
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stigant
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It seems like we ought to get some bonus points for verifying hard to verify predictions in such a way that everybody agrees on them. For example, if I manage to prove that most of the rain in spain fell on the plains to everybody's satisfaction, that ought to make my prediction that much more impressive.

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01-13-2005 at 10:03 PM
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ErikH2000
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Sorry to make so many fracking posts next to each other, but I want to state a few more things for clarity.

Rule 3 is...

3. No predictions may be retracted or edited once submitted.

...but we're going to suspend that rule until Local Time:01-15-2005 at 12:00 AM (used Schik's "localtime" to show the cutoff time adjusted to your timezone).

If you understand the rules, it will follow that making impressive but impossible predictions is not a winning strategy. Only correct predictions will be entered into the poll. So if you make a bunch of incorrect, but very impressive, predictions it will only hurt you. As an example, say that my predictions are:

1. The sun will come out tomorrow.
2. At least one man named "Bob" will have a birthday.
3. Five thousand woodchucks will confront Larry King in an alley and steal his suspenders.

And say that, #1 and #2 come true, but #3 doesn't because only 4000 woodchucks show up. Only #1 and #2 would be entered into the "impressiveness" poll. Neither is very impressive and would probably get an average around "1". So my overall rating would be 6% (66% accuracy * 10% impressiveness). If I hadn't made the third impressive-but-inaccurate prediction my overall rating would be 10% (100% accuracy * 10% impressiveness). So don't make predictions solely for their impressiveness if you wish to win.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 10:03 PM
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ErikH2000
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icon Re: Predict the Future. (0)  
quote:
TripleM wrote:
By the way, how will you get accurate 'impressiveness'es? If we will be making all ours 10/10, and everyone else in the competition will make them 1/10, ..

You are at the whim of the masses, my friend. But consider that even people competing with each other have a sense of honor and can mostly be expected to vote their honest opinion, not just what will benefit them. If that fails us, there are also many people that will vote who aren't contestants.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 10:08 PM
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