Any chumpie can make guesses about the future, but who can truly predict it? I want to find out, and this time I won't get taken in by the huckster phonies out there. No, I mean it! If you say the world is ending in 2006, I'm not automatically going to pull out my credit card and ask if you are selling a book.
To find the true prophets among us, I propose a challenge: you make predictions and we see how many come true.
Rules
1. To submit a prediction to the contest, you should post it here in a reply to this topic. In the body of the message you must prefix your prediction with "
I predict "
, as in "
I predict George W. Bush will resign from his presidency."
If you omit this prefix, your prediction will not be considered submitted.
2. You must submit a minimum of three predictions to be entered into the contest. No more than 30 predictions may be submitted.
3. No predictions may be retracted or edited once submitted.
4. Predictions may not be submitted after
Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM. That is in
negative 1041 weeks, 1 day.
5. Any type of discussion about predictions is allowed at any time.
6. The prediction must indicate something that will happen between the time of submission and
Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM. It must be possible for most people on the forum to easily verify the truthfulness of the prediction. A prediction that doesn't meet these criteria won't be used in later evaluation.
7. The prediction should be something outside of the contestant's control. It should be, practically speaking, impossible for the contestant to influence the event which has been predicted. To avoid problems related to this, no predictions involving the forum will be accepted.
8. You are allowed to specify a margin of error for predictions, i.e. "
I predict Microsoft stock will fall 50 points by 1/22, give or take 10 points."
9. Some time after 1/23 all of the predictions that have come true will be put into a poll. Everyone will be asked to rate each prediction on a scale of 1 to 10 by its impressiveness, or in other words, to what extent the successful prediction seems to indicate amazing capabilities of the predictor.
10. Contestants are obligated to rate their own predictions as "
10"
.
11. Each contestant will be given an overall rating that is the product of impressiveness and accuracy. Accuracy is determined by dividing the number of successful predictions by the total number of predictions submitted by that person. Impressiveness is the mean average of the ratings on individual predictions.
12. The contestant with the highest overall rating is the first place winner. And we will get two runner-ups using the same criterion.
Prizes
First prize winner gets a copy of the
DROD: Journey to Rooted Hold CD or an item of his choosing from
the DROD Store. He also gets 100 rank points. Second and third prize winners get 50 and 25 rank points, respectively. If you have never entered a DROD contest before and make the three required submissions for this contest, then you will receive a rookie bonus of 10 rank points.
I can't wait to expose you all for the despicable frauds you are!
Update 1/13: You can see all the accepted predictions in one place
here.
-Erik
____________________________
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[Last edited by ErikH2000 at 07-03-2006 04:11 AM]
