Nintendo is hardly going to go bust. They don't sell their consoles at a loss, so they make money from every console and game sold, and the DS is the cash cow of the industry. Yes, even more so than the PS2, which sold a lot of units but sold a lot of them at a loss.
So Nintendo are in a strong financial position.
Sony, on the other hand... the only part of Sony that I understand is making money is the PlayStation division, and it's currently propping up the company. If people don't buy into the PS3, it's feasible (but unlikely) that Sony will go bust.
The key here is whether developers will take to the PS3 (my forecast: almost definitely, as in Japan the Xbox 360 is a non-starter and it's stupid to assume everyone will want to develop for the Wii) and whether consumers will (a much trickier question - how many of you really want to say goodbye to DVD? Or pay out US$600 for a games machine and a DVD player that you a) need all new DVDs for and b) might not even get support in 5 years?)
Things might change if Blue Dragon sets Japan on fire, though. It's quite probably Japan's Halo, and if it does well, Sony are in a whole mess of trouble. Even more so if Microsoft does a deal with DoCoMo to bring Live Anywhere to Japan and the Xbox 360 has sales figures above five digits there.
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×Lost.