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Caravel Forum : Caravel Boards : Contests : Predict the Future. (Our first contest of the new year.)
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RoboBob3000
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I'm just keeping this post next to my prediction post to edit as I please to keep track of my success.
NFL:

I predict that the Jets will defeat the Steelers.
False They missed TWO potential game winning field goals!
I predict that the Vikings will defeat the Eagles.
False
I predict that the Falcons will defeat the Rams.
True
I predict that the Colts will defeat the Patriots.
False

NBA:

I predict that the Hornets will lose their next four games, which are against the Blazers, the Raptors, the Sixers, and the Pacers.
False They won their first.
I predict that the Bulls will win their next four games, two against the Knicks, and one each against the Celtics and the Hawks.
False They lost to the Celtics.
I predict that the Sonics will win their next four games, against the Warriors, the Cavaliers, The Nuggets, and the Timberwolves.
False They lost to the Nuggets.

1/7. I rule.

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01-27-2005 at 12:07 AM
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gamer_extreme_101
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quote:
joker5 wrote:
I predict that Microsoft will be mentioned in five or more articles in non-Microsoft-centered publications on the Internet. TRUE as far as I can tell. A few blogs
If you look hard, various sites ([url www.neowin.net]Neowin.net, for example) had coverage on the MSN Messenger outage that hit on Sunday. Not sure whether they would count or not, but you could search them for Microsoft-related stories.

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01-27-2005 at 02:26 AM
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masonjason
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quote:
I wrote:
1. I predict that Disasterlabs' "Evil on the Attack" will be released on 21 Jan 2005.


FALSE. The release was delayed by a day.
quote:

2. I predict that Martin Luther King will rise from his grave on 17 Jan 2005.


FALSE.
quote:

3. I predict that at least one of my two predictions above will not come true.


TRUE.
quote:

4. I predict that in the MMORPG Kingdom of Loathing there will be a player with an ID number greater than 380000.


TRUE. SSCShadow12 (#380001)
quote:

5. I predict that in said MMORPG, the feature known as Ascension will have been implemented.


FALSE.
quote:

6. I predict that a mathematical paper concerning differential operators will be published by S. Coriasco, E. Schrohe and J. Seiler.


FALSE.
quote:

7. I predict, on a similar note, that Goldbach's Conjecture will be proven.


FALSE.
quote:

8. I predict that the Jan 17 issue of Time Magazine will feature a flower-like atom design with a smiley face at its nucleus.


TRUE. http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,1101050117,00.html (copy-paste link)
quote:

9. I predict that the Jan 24 issue of Time Magazine will feature a portrait of a female person between the ages of 30 and 40 climbing a ladder.


FALSE.
quote:

10. I predict that Ann McCaffrey will release a novel. Not that I read her books, mind you.


FALSE, according to Amazon.
11. I predict that any surjective function will be conceived of on the 19th of January that takes {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} to {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} will also be injective. (TRUE!)
quote:

12. I predict that Stjepan Mesić will win the second round of the Croatian presidential election.


TRUE. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Presidential_elections_of_Croatia


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01-27-2005 at 05:22 PM
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Strabo
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I predict that on 23/01/05 the JtRH will _still_ be at 89.35%
>>True
I predict that the Moonsorrow album 'Verisäkeet' will be released
>>False
I predict that there will in major flooding in a European country
>>False
I predict that Tony Blair will visit a middle eastern country
>>False
I predict that the rover currently running around on mars will stop responding.(I can't remember its name! Is it 'Oportunity'?)
>>False

It's official, I'm rubbish.



01-28-2005 at 01:17 PM
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krammer
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quote:
krammer wrote:
I predict that Aston Villa will be 11th in the Premiership on January the 23rd.
TRUE - check here. They've not played any games since 22nd Jan.
quote:
I predict that it will rain in London at some time between January the 14th and January the 17th.
TRUE - see earlier post.
quote:
I predict that DROD will not be mentioned on the BBC homepage www.bbc.co.uk) on January 20th.
MOOT - I'm almost certain it is true, but I forgot to check. However the BBC search facility cannot find any mention of DROD and it's very unlikely it would disappear from the site altogether after a week.
quote:
I predict that Mattcrampy will become ill, but not seriously ill.
This one was banned by Erik.

So - 2.5 out of 3. Not too awful I suppose.

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01-28-2005 at 05:24 PM
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ErikH2000
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I think I'm caught up with tracking all the prediction posts made so far. The following people still need to provide a resolution for their predictions:

Joker5 (see previous post here)
leroy00
Mattcrampy
MeckMeck GRE
noaht
robertstar20
rowrow
scambigol
Skell
stigant

The deadline for doing this is Local Time:02-01-2005 at 12:00 AM which is negative 763 weeks away. You guys need to respond or your unresolved predictions will default to being false, won't go into the impressiveness poll, and bring your accuracy rating down.

-Erik

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01-28-2005 at 07:14 PM
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rowrow
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My other predictions Eytan said were true. I don't know where he got it from.
quote:
eytanz wrote:
Some random observation regarding prediction outcomes:

True predictions:
Rowrow's prediction #1 (I predict that there won't be more than 300,000 deaths from tsunamis by the end of the week) - prediction was made Friday the 14th, was true by the end of that week(Sun 16th).
Rowrow's prediction #3 (I predict that there won't be more than 50 states in America by the end of the week) - prediction was made Friday the 14th, was true by the end of that week (Sun 16th).

Eytanz, where did you get them from?

[Edited by rowrow at Local Time:01-28-2005 at 07:33 PM]

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01-28-2005 at 07:32 PM
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RoboBob3000
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I'd like Eytan to know that I personally became the 51st state last weekend. So yeah, your prediction is false.

Verifiability? I don't know what that word means.

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01-28-2005 at 07:40 PM
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eytanz
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quote:
rowrow wrote:
My other predictions Eytan said were true. I don't know where he got it from.
quote:
eytanz wrote:
Some random observation regarding prediction outcomes:

True predictions:
Rowrow's prediction #1 (I predict that there won't be more than 300,000 deaths from tsunamis by the end of the week) - prediction was made Friday the 14th, was true by the end of that week(Sun 16th).
Rowrow's prediction #3 (I predict that there won't be more than 50 states in America by the end of the week) - prediction was made Friday the 14th, was true by the end of that week (Sun 16th).

Eytanz, where did you get them from?

[Edited by rowrow at Local Time:01-28-2005 at 07:33 PM]


Just mainstream media. Note that I read that the "death by tsunamis" prediction was talking about deaths that occured between the time of the prediction and Friday the 16th. Since no tsunamis occured at that time, the number was 0. If the prediction was actually talking about something else (such as deaths by tsunami from the beginning of time, or the beginning of 2004, or something) it may well be false.

In both cases, I'm going by the principle Erik instated for my martian prediction - if it's a monumental event that certainly would be reported on the news, we can read lack of reports to mean lack of events.

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01-28-2005 at 08:12 PM
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rowrow
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I meant The Tsunamis
Oh and (Robo)bob(3000)
quote:
RoboBob3000 wrote:
I'd like Eytan to know that I personally became the 51st state last weekend. So yeah, your prediction is false.

Verifiability? I don't know what that word means.

How else do you think the 50 states came to be? :)

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01-28-2005 at 08:16 PM
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MeckMeck GRE
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1. I predict A big single act of terror will happen bringing hundrets of peoples to death. (False)

2. I predict The new leader of Palästina will make peace in Israel (False)

3. I predict Europa will be hitten by a heavy snow fall.
(FALSE)

4. I predict A accident with EMP will turn of a whole citys power supply (FALSE)

5. I predict VfB Stuttgard (German Football Club) will be 2nd at the 31. Jan (FALSE)

6. I predict that the Dax rises above 4400
(FALSE)

7. I predict that the rebel regime in south Asia lets more help in.(FALSE)

8. I predict FC Bayern will win the first next match
(TRUE!)

9. I predict VIVA will stop sending because of financel problems
(FALSE)

10. I predict that no predictions above (6, 7, 8, 9) will get true (FALSE)

I predict that the German law "Hartz 4" will be proved by the Bundes Constitution Court.

(FALSE)

I predict that someone is winning this competition

(TRUE)

I predict that a big company will get in serious financel trouble

(FALSE)

I predict that more than 80 predictions will be made.

(TRUE)

I predict that a 512 MB Grafic Card will come soon (till end of that Competition)

(FALSE)

I predict that J.K. Rolling will say some facts about H.P. 6

(FALSE)

I predict that VALVE will remove some user hostile rules of Steam (That thing that you need to play HL2)

(FALSE)

I predict that no big company will get in serious financel troubles and that there will be no 512 MB Grafics Card and no new info about HP6 and no userfriendly changes in steam.

(TRUE)

[Edited by MeckMeck GRE at Local Time:01-30-2005 at 06:14 PM]
01-30-2005 at 06:11 PM
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ErikH2000
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Just updated the tracking post again. The following people still need to provide a resolution for their predictions:

Joker5 (see previous post here)
leroy00
Mattcrampy
noaht
robertstar20
scambigol
Skell
stigant

The deadline for doing this is Local Time:02-01-2005 at 12:00 AM which is negative 763 weeks away. You guys need to respond or your unresolved predictions will default to being false, won't go into the impressiveness poll, and bring your accuracy rating down.

-Erik

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01-30-2005 at 09:34 PM
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joker5
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Dream may be over for reality TV

With 10 more hours on networks, reality ratings are falling, scripted TV finds a wider audience.
October 14, 2004: 10:47 AM EDT

money.cnn.com/2004/10/14/news/fortune500/reality_tv/. Proof that a major network staple has dropped in ratings (Not recently though. I'm sure Friends has been dropping, I just can't find a reference >.<)



Mathematical proof that pie consumption exceeded 100 pounds in this month: Suppose a pie weighs a quarter of a pound (Quite small, for a pie). Suppose each grocery store in the US sold on average .5 pies; that is, every 2 stores sold one pie. This is TINY compared to what my local grocer says he sold, and Kirkland isn't exactly a pie-centric neighborhood. Consider that National Pie Day is 1/23, which is after my prediction.

Consider how many grocery stores you know.

Yeah, there we go. Can't find actual numbers on the American Pie Council's site without being a member, however. But does this work as proof of prediction?



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01-31-2005 at 03:04 PM
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ErikH2000
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Yes, I will take these. They aren't perfect, but... well, I feel like I've been holding you to a slightly higher standard than some of the other people, and I should let up a bit.

Still need sources for:

7. I predict that there will be either a hurricane or a tornado somewhere in the U.S.A.

8. I predict that there will be snow somewhere in Africa.

15. I predict that Microsoft will be mentioned in five or more articles in non-Microsoft-centered publications on the Internet.

-Erik

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01-31-2005 at 08:02 PM
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Mattcrampy
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2. Something will come to light regarding the misuse of donations by a charity working in the Indian Ocean tsunami-affected region.

While there's been plenty of scammers, there hasn't been any actual misuse of funds by a charity that's actually working in the area. False.

3. The current #1 song on the American charts will change twice in the next two weeks.

Unless "My Boo" was on the no. 1 position two weeks ago, this one's false.

4. There will be a major health scare in the United States within the next month.

The largest I can find is a scare over Pheonix's water supply. I'll leave it up to Erik to decide if this counts:

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0131ruelas31.html

Matt

[Edited by Mattcrampy at Local Time:01-31-2005 at 11:45 PM]

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01-31-2005 at 11:43 PM
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joker5
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A few seconds too late, I submit a few blogs on Neowin.com.

I also submit a few photos from google for African mountains; they have snow on them.

Finally, I bring forth the fact that there are pretty much daily dust devils and so forth in several of the western states. Still can't find any recent tornado watches or anything for Kansas... I guess this one is False.

And the reason these are late is because my mother passed out, so I was too busy to actually do any more work in verifying these thing. They probably won't work, but I gotta try, right?

And don't worry about the high standard thing; if my predictions don't pass the high standards you set they're probably not that useful anyway. Anyway, culling out the bad predictions should just raise my score in the end (or so I hope.)

~joker5

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02-01-2005 at 01:04 AM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
joker5 wrote:
And don't worry about the high standard thing; if my predictions don't pass the high standards you set they're probably not that useful anyway. Anyway, culling out the bad predictions should just raise my score in the end (or so I hope.)

I wasn't perfectly happy with the concreteness of your sources in this last message, but on the other hand I do appreciate your making an effort and I feel a little short on time myself for responding back and getting a clarification from you. So I'm going to make a compromise here--I will just remove these last three predictions of yours and they won't count for or against your accuracy.

Note that this is the end of accepting prediction resolutions for all the contestants. Any messages coming after this one won't be used to update prediction tracking.

-Erik

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02-01-2005 at 01:24 AM
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ErikH2000
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Final accuracy results are up on the prediction tracking topic. Unfortunately, some people didn't resolve their predictions and got dropped from the contest. These are:

leroy00
noaht
robertstar20
scambigol
Skell
stigant

Sad!

Bradwall and ZMann only have two accepted predictions. I will put their correct predictions in the impressiveness poll for fun, but since they didn't have the minimum of three predictions, they aren't eligible to win the contest.

Also sad!

When I get a little time I'll make the impressivenes poll which will contain all correct predictions for rating.

-Erik

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02-01-2005 at 01:43 AM
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Arkeva
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I hate to say this but I feel I must ! I have been predicting earthquakes and disasters a long time now ! I just have'nt told any one other than family members !

Within 2 months a tsunami will hit the east coast of America.
Florida will be the hardest.
The hole east coast will have lost many lives.
I don't wish it but it will come to pass.

I should of posted about the tsunami that hit Asia but I did'nt and many lives has been lost ! You can believe me or not but I really do not like this gift I have but I might as well do something with it. Any and every gift is a gift from Our Lord Jesus Christ through him we pray !
11-23-2005 at 09:53 AM
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Mattcrampy
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quote:
Arkeva wrote:
I hate to say this but I feel I must ! I have been predicting earthquakes and disasters a long time now ! I just have'nt told any one other than family members !

Within 2 months a tsunami will hit the east coast of America.
Florida will be the hardest.
The hole east coast will have lost many lives.
I don't wish it but it will come to pass.

I should of posted about the tsunami that hit Asia but I did'nt and many lives has been lost ! You can believe me or not but I really do not like this gift I have but I might as well do something with it. Any and every gift is a gift from Our Lord Jesus Christ through him we pray !


It probably wouldn't have helped, in the case of the Boxing Day tsunami. And really, natural disasters aren't all that hard to predict, as they're so frequent. For instance, saying that the east coast of the US, particularly Florida, will be hit by a natural disaster isn't so mystical. Then again, tsunamis are caused by underwater earthquakes, basically, so I'm wondering if that can't be pinpointed on a map.

In any case, we'll see.

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11-23-2005 at 02:51 PM
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b0rsuk
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Oh no, not a deadline.

I was going to predict there will be at least one roach clone in DROD:TCB* . But you outlawed that.


* roach clone is a creature which moves and kills exactly like a roach. Spiders are roach clones by my definition.

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11-23-2005 at 03:42 PM
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Banjooie
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...well, if you're Christian, you should know that telling fortunes is a sin.

So sorry.
11-23-2005 at 05:50 PM
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Oneiromancer
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Wow, a presumably Google-based, misconstrued, old contest thread resurrection. This person must have had no idea. How sad...and hilarious.

Game on,

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11-23-2005 at 05:55 PM
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agaricus5
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quote:
Oneiromancer wrote:
Wow, a presumably Google-based, misconstrued, old contest thread resurrection. This person must have had no idea. How sad...and hilarious.

Game on,

Actually, I saw the subtitle "Our first contest of the new year" and immediately assumed it was a new contest.

I then became increasingly confused as...

1. I discovered first that it already had 6 pages (why did Erik not use a new thread for this one?).
2. I realised it is still November (what happened to the December contest?).
3. I couldn't find Erik's announcement post reopening the contest.
4. I discovered no-one had posted anything about entering the contest.
5. I read this in Neil's post: "Wow, a presumably Google-based, misconstrued, old contest thread resurrection."

After reading it, it took me nearly 10 seconds to realise what he actually meant. *groan*

I guess I should look carefully next time before getting too excited about a new "contest". :)

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[Last edited by agaricus5 at 11-23-2005 11:59 PM]
11-23-2005 at 07:38 PM
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Znirk
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quote:
agaricus5 wrote:
I guess I should look carefully next time before getting too excited about a new "contest". :)

Would you say that the thread was taken out of contest?
11-23-2005 at 11:06 PM
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NekoIncardine
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No analysis or anything, I make seven predictions.

1) I predict that Nintendo's Revolution will be announced to launch in March, April, or May 2006.

2) I predict that, by January 1st, the X-Box 360 will sell LESS than three million units in the US.

3) I predict that the highest-selling X-Box 360 game by the end of the year will be Project Gotham Racing 3.

4) I predict that the highest-selling Nintendo DS game by the end of the year will be a version of Nintendogs. This counts the bundle version now available.

5) I predict that the Nintendo DS will continue to sell more games than Sony's Playstation Portable.

6) I predict that the ENGLISH Wikipedia will have 900,000 Articles by the end of January.

I am fully aware this is an old contest. But it's fun to predict things.

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[Last edited by NekoIncardine at 11-24-2005 07:22 AM]
11-24-2005 at 07:21 AM
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Banjooie
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quote:
Arkeva wrote:
Within 2 months a tsunami will hit the east coast of America.
Florida will be the hardest.
The hole east coast will have lost many lives.
I don't wish it but it will come to pass.



Deadly Necro of Death!

Looks like she was wrong, eh?
05-23-2006 at 06:39 PM
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Doom
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I'm thinking that predicting the winner of this year's Eurovision Song Contest would've been worth a lot points :lol
05-23-2006 at 07:07 PM
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krammer
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quote:
Doom wrote:
I'm thinking that predicting the winner of this year's Eurovision Song Contest would've been worth a lot points :lol

Bah. Don't remind me. I was so hoping for a Lithuanian victory. Amazing song.

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05-23-2006 at 08:15 PM
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Caravel Forum : Caravel Boards : Contests : Predict the Future. (Our first contest of the new year.)
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