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Caravel Forum : Caravel Boards : Contests : Predict the Future. (Our first contest of the new year.)
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rowrow
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Look at Weather.com for Los Angeles.

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01-19-2005 at 01:27 AM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
rowrow wrote:
Look at Weather.com for Los Angeles.

Ah, now that's what I'm talking about--thanks.

Your prediction, made on the 13th, was:
quote:
rowrow wrote:
2 I predict that it won't rain in Los Angeles until end of the week.(my prediction ends there)


...and now I am thinking about how ambiguous this is. I can see what I said earlier about no rain at the beginning of the week shouldn't count, because you made the prediction on Thursday. I guess what you meant was not that it would rain at the end of the week, after not raining since the 13th, but instead that there would be no rain for the rest of the week.

Yeah, that must be what you meant. I'll mark the prediction as accurate.

-Erik

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01-19-2005 at 01:52 AM
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DiMono
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Looking out my window, Toronto got more than 3 inches of snow today, which makes one of my predictions correct. Tomorrow I'll go hunting for a website that demonstrates this.

Edit: For some reason, the Toronto weather website refuses to udpate their data for January 19 from 4.6mm, even though about 4 inches fell. The best I can do to verify this prediction is to take a photo and post it. I presume that will not suffice?

[Edited by DiMono at Local Time:01-21-2005 at 05:00 PM]

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01-20-2005 at 04:51 AM
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Fafnir
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My ten new pieces of malware are here:

Trojan.Tannick.B
VBS.Swerun
PWSteal.Trojan.L
W32.Bropia
W32.Mydoom.AL@mm
Trojan.Admincash
Bloodhound.Exploit.23
PWSteal.Formglieder
W32.Zar.A@mm
VBS.Rowam.A

My scientific discovery is here - BSE prions have been discovered in organs other than mad cows' brains, spinal cords and immune systems. It's in Nature, so it should be current.

Also, I don't think you noticed this post of mine Erik - my prediction isn't marked as true in the general section.

quote:
Fafnir wrote:
quote:
4. I predict that the press will find something out about at least one celebrity that he/she didn't want them to know.


See here. I'd call the guy a celebrity, and I doubt he wanted anyone to find out he was guilty of tax evasion, press included.

One other thing - can we have one or two days after the deadline to do research for predictions? For example, I'll have to scrounge up ten pieces of malware, and that will be much easier if I can start past the 23rd so I can survey the full range of the contest. In addition, negative predictions (e.g. the Harry Potter book won't be delayed) can only be proved past the deadline, so we'll need extra time to prove those (e.g. in the Harry Potter case by posting a current link to JK Rowling and her publisher's websites)


And all my other predictions can only be verified after the 23rd has passed except the Microsoft security hole. I'm doing fairly well!

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01-21-2005 at 06:03 PM
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Tim
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Oh, I almost forgot my predictions...
Hope it's not too late...

I predict that at Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM, that is in negative 752 weeks, 1 day the BBC news main web page: http://news.bbc.co.uk/ will contain at least one of the following words: "Resignation", "Bombing", "Peace", "Notes", "DROD", and "Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch"

I predict that from now till Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM all of the following will happen
a) an earthquake
b) GWB will announce that he will not go for another term
c) Erik will be winning an award
d) pigs fly
provided JtRH is released (officially) before that time.

I predict that at Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM all of the following persons (I mean the well-known people with that name, not other people that happen to have that name as well) will still be alive*):
a) George W. Bush
b) Tony Blair
c) Britney Spears
d) Madonna
*) Since proving someone being alive is a bit difficult, I hope it's also sufficient to prove that there will be no announcement of the death of any of these people on the BBC web site ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/) (I hope you'll all agree that when any of these famous people dies, it will be headlines on almost every news site.)

-- Tim

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01-21-2005 at 11:14 PM
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Oneiromancer
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quote:
Tim wrote:

I predict that from now till Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM all of the following will happen

b) GWB will announce that he will not go for another term



Psst...this is his 2nd term, he's not allowed to run for a third one...consecutively, at least. Unless he tries to pass a Constitutional Amendment repealing the previous one that limits presidential terms.

(And yes, I know that the prediction was facetious anyway.)

Game on,

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01-21-2005 at 11:29 PM
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bradwall
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My prediction about my plane being late was false... it actually came early.
My prediction about PostgreSQL came true (full version being released): http://www.postgresql.org/about/news.277

01-21-2005 at 11:49 PM
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Tim
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quote:
Oneiromancer wrote:
quote:
Tim wrote:

I predict that from now till Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM all of the following will happen

b) GWB will announce that he will not go for another term



Psst...this is his 2nd term, he's not allowed to run for a third one...consecutively, at least. Unless he tries to pass a Constitutional Amendment repealing the previous one that limits presidential terms.


Actually, I find this part of the prediction will very likely happen. I think, in an interview, he will say something like this as an reasons why everything he does from now on is really good for you.

The reason I put this inside a simple prediction is that I have no access to US television, so I can't prove it.

-- Tim

[Edited by Tim at Local Time:01-22-2005 at 04:54 PM: changed the word "argument" into "reason" (argument means reason in dutch)]

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01-22-2005 at 12:05 AM
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Rabscuttle
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quote:
Rabscuttle wrote:
I predict that there will be a new Strong Bad e-mail released next week (it will be the one above "dreamail" at http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail.html) where the e-mail answered will not include a two-letter American state abbreviation at the end.


Teen Girl Squaded!
Ow! My prediction!

There was no e-mail this week, which means this one is false.
01-22-2005 at 12:12 AM
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DiMono
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Update: January 20 did indeed arrive after January 19

New predictions:

I predict episode 48 of Red vs Blue will not be made publicly available before the time to enter predictions for this contest passes

I predict I will receive a phone call from the police by tuesday telling me they have caught the person who cut in front of me to cause my accident

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01-22-2005 at 04:28 AM
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Fafnir
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Well, it's almost the deadline, and here's the state of play as regards my predictions:

1. I predict that at least one company will fire more than twenty people at once.
TRUE!

2. I predict that there will be at least one scientific discovery.
TRUE!

3. I predict that there will be at least one tectonic event.
TRUE!

4. I predict that the press will find something out about at least one celebrity that he/she didn't want them to know.
TRUE!

5. I predict that the ID card scheme in the UK will remain on track.
Looks like it's going to be TRUE! If something had gone wrong, The Register or Yahoo would have reported it.

6. I predict that the Dow Jones index will fall by 2% or more (going by Yahoo's stats).
Not yet - it's down about 1.5% so far. Probably FALSE!

7. I predict that no delay will be announced regarding the new Harry Potter book (a bit more risky, this one)
TRUE! Any delay would have been confirmed here

8. I predict that a new 'issue' with one of Micro$oft's products' security will be discovered.
Looks like it's FALSE! That should have been a sure thing!

9. I predict that if an act of terror occurs, George Bush will try to use it to justify the war in Iraq. Yes, I know there's no connection.
MOOT! There has been no act of terror, ergo the prediction can't be proven true or false, and so probably shouldn't count towards accuracy.

10. I predict that at least ten new (computer) pieces of malware will be created (this includes virii, trojans, worms, adware etc.)
TRUE!

7/9 (discounting moot prediction) - not too shabby! Expect a best-seller sometime soon... Or maybe a cult...

And I think your last prediction might be unverifiable, DiMono.

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01-22-2005 at 10:17 PM
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TripleM
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Heres the rest of the results of my predictions:

3. I predict Liverpool will beat Man United this weekend. FALSE

4. I predict West Indies will beat Pakistan tomorrow. (cricket) FALSE

5. I predict Australia will beat West Indies on the 21st. FALSE :( it rained.

6. I predict Manchester United will beat Aston Villa. TRUE

7. I predict Chelsea will beat Portsmouth. TRUE

8. I predict there will be at least one draw in the round (not including the Arsenal v Newcastle match, which I think is after the cutoff.) TRUE (only one, and it was 4-4!!)
01-22-2005 at 11:02 PM
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eytanz
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First, I'd like to correct a typo in my predictions:

2 should read: I predict that either it will rain in Spain on Saturday, Jan 22nd, or not.

(The old wording should be disqualified - there was no Tuesday, Jan 22nd this year, so it couldn't be checked within the proper timeframe). Fortunately, I have an hour before the end of the contest to post my revised prediction.

My prediction progress:

1. I predict that something will happen, at somepoint, to someone, in a manner that totally doesn't involve the DROD forum. (TRUE - something did.)

2. I predict that either it will rain in Spain on Saturday[, Jan 22nd, or not. (TRUE)

3. I predict that the New York Times will not use the word "Rutabaga" anywhere on the front page on any day not starting with a T between tomorrow (Friday the 14th) and the 22nd. (TRUE, according to the Time's search feature the word wasn't used anywhere at all in the newspaper this week, let alone the front page)

4. I predict that the New York Times will not use the word "Rutabaga" anywhere on the front page on days starting with T, either. (TRUE, see above)

5. I predict that no player in the New York Mets will win the Miss America pageant at any point next week. (TRUE)

6. I predict that neither the American nor the British legislature will pass a law that will add a new letter to the English alphabet between S and T. (TRUE)

7. I predict that the population of Portugal will not exceed that of India. (TRUE)

8. I predict that if one martian lands on Earth next week wearing a helmet, all the martians that land next week will wear helmets. (TRUE by default as no martians landed)

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01-22-2005 at 11:13 PM
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Tim
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Let's see what happened on my news predictions...

quote:
I predict that at Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM, that is in negative 752 weeks, 1 day the BBC news main web page: http://news.bbc.co.uk/ will contain at least one of the following words:
"Resignation", "Bombing", "Peace", "Notes", "DROD", and "Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch"

Let's say that I just visited the BBC news home page, and yes, one of the words did show up: "Notes" ;) "Bombing" was just removed some 10 minutes ago.
quote:
I predict that at Local Time:01-23-2005 at 12:00 AM all of the following persons (I mean the well-known people with that name, not other people that happen to have that name as well) will still be alive*):
a) George W. Bush b) Tony Blair c) Britney Spears d) Madonna

Well, according to the site, no one's dead yet!

-- Tim

[Edited by Tim at Local Time:01-23-2005 at 01:16 AM]

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01-23-2005 at 01:13 AM
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DiMono
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Update: Today Toronto was in a blizzard. At LEAST a foot of snow fell downtown.

Episode 48 has not been released to the public

January 20 came after January 19

That means exactly three of my predictions came true, which makes my prediction that exactly three predictions will come true, correct.

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01-23-2005 at 02:39 AM
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Rabscuttle
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quote:
Rabscuttle wrote:
I predict that a JtRH screenshot will be released (before the end of the competition) showing the spawn counter on 16.



False.

quote:

I predict that the "Eric Conveys an Emotion" website (http://www.emotioneric.com/) will not be fixed before the end of the competition.



True.


01-23-2005 at 07:06 AM
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Mattcrampy
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Well, my prediction regarding Australia losing at cricket came true - the World XI, which had the Australian fast bowler Shane Warne as part of the side, was defeated by the New Zealand XI in a game that does credit to the Kiwis. Well done, and thank you.

As for my other predictions, I'm not sure. Yet.

Matt

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01-24-2005 at 12:57 AM
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TripleM
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quote:
Mattcrampy wrote:
the Australian fast bowler Shane Warne


Cough.

01-24-2005 at 02:08 AM
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joker5
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My update:

I predict that Bush will continue supporting his changes to the government. TRUE. He has not made any apologies, and we all know how steadfast he is.
I predict that there will be no terrorist attack in the U.S. in North America, but I'm not saying anything about any U.S. Embassies. TRUE. We would have been told about it.
I predict that Putin will not take more action centralizing his power in Russia. TRUE. Nothing on the news, no major legistlative changes.
I predict that the Dow will gain 2 percent or more barring any terrorist action in the world. FALSE See Fafnir's prediction of a drop of 2%.
I predict that Microsoft stock will rise at least 5 points.FALSE It dropped a few points.
I predict that we will hear nothing of Guantanamo Bay, Saddam Hussein, or Osama bin Laden from any major newspapers or any White House statements until and unless Bush mentions them in a speech. TRUE/MOOT No newspapers I've seen have said anything about these topics. I'm not sure if Bush mentioned them in his speech.
I predict that there will be either a hurricane or a tornado somewhere in the U.S.A. probably TRUEKansas usually gets quite a few.
I predict that the reader of this prediction will see at least one hobo before the due date if they walk through the downtown area of the nearest urban area for at least five minutes.
I predict that there will be no hailstorms that the reader of this prediction experiences before the due date. MOOT! This was slashed.
I predict that there will be snow somewhere in Africa.TRUE. There is still snow on a few mountains.
I predict that there will be a taciturn/implied/non-official confirmation of a sequel to JtRH. No feature list will be released or confirmed. TRUE/moot This is kinda about the forum, but there have been mentions of a sequel to JtRH on the forum (not by me).
I predict The RIAA will not make a crackdown on movie sharers. TRUE. We would have heard about it.
I predict no major games that are being produced by a brand name company (Like Lionhead, Rare, etc) or by first party groups will be delayed. No clue! I don't keep up with this kind of news, but as far as I can tell all major games are on schedule. Any counter-examples?
I predict that Bush will not 'press the offensive' against Iran or North Korea. TRUE. We have recieved no plans about any kind of offensive, either diplomatic or military, from the Bush administration.
I predict that one or more major staples of network television (Like The Simpsons) will drop in ratings. TRUE I believe ER dropped to seventh place this week. Also, Friends's reruns have been getting lower ratings each week.
I predict that Gmail will not leave the beta phase. TRUE It didn't.
I predict that Microsoft will be mentioned in five or more articles in non-Microsoft-centered publications on the Internet. TRUE as far as I can tell. A few blogs mentioned it.
I predict that no third-world countries will declare that they possess WMD. TRUE. We would have heard about it.
I predict that no third-world countries will deny that they have WMD. TRUE. We would have heard about it.
I predict that no one on this forum will hear anything about the Native Americans unless they are studying American History. MOOT! Not a prediction; it involves the forums.
I predict that over one hundred pounds of pie will be bought or consumed worldwide. TRUE. I personally know that the local grocery stores in the Seattle area have sold over one hundred pounds of pie.
I predict a new Weebl and Bob episode. TRUE
I predict two; not more or less, Neko the Kitty comics. FALSE More than 2; I think it's 4.
I predict 6 or more new Bob and George comics. TRUE They're daily!
I predict one new Eight-Bit Theater comic.TRUE What? There is.

So I'm batting somewhere between 17 and 20 for 22 valid predictions.

Not bad if I do say so myself!

~joker5

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01-24-2005 at 02:31 AM
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MeckMeck GRE
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Something new to predict !

I predict that the German law "Hartz 4" will be proved by the Bundes Constitution Court.

I predict that someone is winning this competition

I predict that a big company will get in serious financel trouble

I predict that more than 80 predictions will be made.

I predict that a 512 MB Grafic Card will come soon (till end of that Competition)

I predict that J.K. Rolling will say some facts about H.P. 6

I predict that VALVE will remove some user hostile rules of Steam (That thing that you need to play HL2)

I predict that no big company will get in serious financel troubles and that there will be no 512 MB Grafics Card and no new info about HP6 and no userfriendly changes in steam.

So these are my last.
01-24-2005 at 05:29 PM
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TripleM
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Its a bit too late to make any predictions - the cutoff time for making them was about 2 days ago.
01-24-2005 at 07:55 PM
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Mattcrampy
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quote:
TripleM wrote:
quote:
Mattcrampy wrote:
the Australian fast bowler Shane Warne


Cough.



Spin bowler! Spin bowler!

Oh great, there goes my Australian citizenship.

Did the top song in the US change in the last two weeks?

Matt

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01-25-2005 at 10:51 AM
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DiMono
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quote:
Mattcrampy wrote:
Did the top song in the US change in the last two weeks?
Top song on which list? There are about seven hundred of them.

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01-25-2005 at 07:33 PM
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joker5
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Well, on MY Top Songs list a few songs dropped. In particular, I got sick of the Green Greens theme and switched to "The Knights Come Marching Home Again". So yes, your prediction works. However, not to be harsh or anything but I'd have to give it a 2 for impressiveness. I mean it's like "One rock or more, when thrown up on planet Earth this year with a momentum of not more than 100kgm/s, will drop back to Earth".

~joker5

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01-26-2005 at 03:29 AM
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Mattcrampy
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quote:
DiMono wrote:
quote:
Mattcrampy wrote:
Did the top song in the US change in the last two weeks?
Top song on which list? There are about seven hundred of them.


Surely the US has a big ol' official one, possibly run by the RIAA or something. Otherwise, I've been assuming that the ARIA music list, regarded as the official Australian list, had a US equivalent and that makes it a bit tricky to evaluate.

Matt

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01-26-2005 at 07:44 AM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
joker5 wrote:
I predict that there will be either a hurricane or a tornado somewhere in the U.S.A. probably TRUEKansas usually gets quite a few.

I predict that there will be snow somewhere in Africa.TRUE. There is still snow on a few mountains.

I predict that one or more major staples of network television (Like The Simpsons) will drop in ratings. TRUE I believe ER dropped to seventh place this week. Also, Friends's reruns have been getting lower ratings each week.

I predict that Microsoft will be mentioned in five or more articles in non-Microsoft-centered publications on the Internet. TRUE as far as I can tell. A few blogs mentioned it.


I need a publicly verifiable source for each of these.
quote:

I predict that there will be a taciturn/implied/non-official confirmation of a sequel to JtRH. No feature list will be released or confirmed. TRUE/moot This is kinda about the forum, but there have been mentions of a sequel to JtRH on the forum (not by me).

Yeah, good point--it really is a forum-related prediction. I just took that prediction out and it won't count for or against your accuracy.

-Erik

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01-26-2005 at 08:48 PM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
MeckMeck GRE wrote:
Something new to predict !

Yeah, those were a day or two late, MeckMeck. I didn't put them in.

-Erik


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01-26-2005 at 08:50 PM
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Mattcrampy wrote:
Surely the US has a big ol' official one, possibly run by the RIAA or something. Otherwise, I've been assuming that the ARIA music list, regarded as the official Australian list, had a US equivalent and that makes it a bit tricky to evaluate.

Remember, the burden is on you to prove your prediction with a publicly verifiable source.

Suggestion: see what you can find on billboard.com.

-Erik

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01-26-2005 at 08:54 PM
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ErikH2000
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The tracking page is now updated with everything I know about. Let me know if I missed anything. In particular, check the predictions that you made to be certain I took into account all the information you posted.
http://www.drod.net/forum/viewtopic.php?TopicID=4885

Burden of proof is on the contestants to show a publicly verifiable source demonstrating the truth of their predictions. There are still many predictions that haven't been resolved yet. Everyone besides bradwall, DiMono, eytanz, rabscuttle, Tim, TripleM, and ZMann still need to show which way their predictions went and why.

The deadline for doing this is Local Time:02-01-2005 at 12:00 AM which is negative 750 weeks, 6 days away. After that, any predictions that haven't been resolved will be counted as false, no matter how obvious they might seem. This would bring down your accuracy rating, so you want to avoid this. Also, you want to get your prediction resolutions in early and check back for replies in case they are disputed.

Sometime soon after that date above I'll put up that monstrously huge "impressiveness" poll. And not to sound like hard case, but I am serious about the Local Time:02-01-2005 at 12:00 AM cutoff date. It may be unfair, but I won't go back and redo the poll or update accuracy ratings after that date, even if it is my fault because I didn't type something in that you posted. You have to pay attention to make sure your side is properly represented.

-Erik

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01-26-2005 at 09:15 PM
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eytanz
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Erik, why is my prediction (4) below marked as FALSE? It's true.

I predict that the New York Times will not use the word "Rutabaga" anywhere on the front page on days starting with T, either. (FALSE!)


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01-26-2005 at 10:38 PM
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