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Caravel Forum : Caravel Boards : Contests : Predict the Future. (Our first contest of the new year.)
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ErikH2000
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quote:
stigant wrote:
It seems like we ought to get some bonus points for verifying hard to verify predictions in such a way that everybody agrees on them. For example, if I manage to prove that most of the rain in spain fell on the plains to everybody's satisfaction, that ought to make my prediction that much more impressive.

I think that will happen without making any special rules because there are many people here who will be inclined to mod posts up if they are clever, insightful, funny, etc.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 10:11 PM
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masonjason
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MasonJason wrote:
I predict that Disasterlabs' "Evil on the Attack" will be released on 21 Jan 2005.
I predict that Martin Luther King will rise from his grave on 17 Jan 2005.

I predict that at least one of my two predictions above will not come true.
I predict that in the MMORPG Kingdom of Loathing there will be a player with an ID number greater than 380000.
I predict that in said MMORPG, the feature known as Ascension will have been implemented.
I predict that a mathematical paper concerning differential operators will be published by S. Coriasco, E. Schrohe and J. Seiler.
I predict, on a similar note, that Goldbach's Conjecture will be proven.
I predict that the Jan 17 issue of Time Magazine will feature a flower-like atom design with a smiley face at its nucleus.
I predict that the Jan 24 issue of Time Magazine will feature a portrait of a female person between the ages of 30 and 40 climbing a ladder.
I predict that Ann McCaffrey will release a novel. Not that I read her books, mind you.
I predict that any surjective function will be conceived of on the 19th of January that takes {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} to {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} will also be injective.
I predict that Stjepan Mesić will win the second round of the Croatian presidential election.
I predict that the population of Strasbourg will take a jump to 2,000,000 (not including tourists).


Hm. Heavy on the mathematics and the KoL, but it's still full of goodness. Good luck, me.

:)

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01-13-2005 at 10:21 PM
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ErikH2000
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masonjason wrote:
I predict that any surjective function will be conceived of on the 19th of January that takes {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} to {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} will also be injective.

I don't have a math background sufficient to understand this one. Is there already some proof that the above is always true?
quote:
I predict that the population of Strasbourg will take a jump to 2,000,000 (not including tourists).

Is there a census there in the next few weeks? Otherwise how is this verifiable?

-Erik


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01-13-2005 at 10:59 PM
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RoboBob3000
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NFL:

I predict that the Jets will defeat the Steelers.
I predict that the Vikings will defeat the Eagles.
I predict that the Falcons will defeat the Rams.
I predict that the Colts will defeat the Patriots.

NBA:

I predict that the Hornets will lose their next four games, which are against the Blazers, the Raptors, the Sixers, and the Pacers.
I predict that the Bulls will win their next four games, two against the Knicks, and one each against the Celtics and the Hawks.
I predict that the Sonics will win their next four games, against the Warriors, the Cavaliers, The Nuggets, and the Timberwolves.



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01-13-2005 at 11:10 PM
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RoboBob3000
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I'm just keeping this post next to my prediction post to edit as I please to keep track of my success.
NFL:

I predict that the Jets will defeat the Steelers.
False They missed TWO potential game winning field goals!
I predict that the Vikings will defeat the Eagles.
False
I predict that the Falcons will defeat the Rams.
True
I predict that the Colts will defeat the Patriots.
False

NBA:

I predict that the Hornets will lose their next four games, which are against the Blazers, the Raptors, the Sixers, and the Pacers.
False They won their first.
I predict that the Bulls will win their next four games, two against the Knicks, and one each against the Celtics and the Hawks.
False They lost to the Celtics.
I predict that the Sonics will win their next four games, against the Warriors, the Cavaliers, The Nuggets, and the Timberwolves.
False They lost to the Nuggets.

[Edited by RoboBob3000 at Local Time:01-19-2005 at 07:13 AM]

So I'm one for seven? That should get me some sort of recognition.

[Edited by RoboBob3000 at Local Time:01-20-2005 at 07:16 AM]

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01-13-2005 at 11:12 PM
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ErikH2000
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MeckMeck GRE wrote:
I predict The new leader of Palästina will make peace in Israel

I don't see an objective way to verify this, but erring on the side of generosity, I'll call the prediction accurate if some public official has got enough chutzpah to actually say there is peace in Israel as a result of actions taken by the new leader.
quote:
I predict Germany will be hitten by a exapleless snow fall.

I am confused by the word "exapleless". Did you mean "exampleless"? As in this snowfall will be greater than any previous, so there will be no examples to compare it to?
quote:
I predict VfB Stuttgard will be 2nd at the 31. Jan

Is VfB Stuttgard a sports team?

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 11:14 PM
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ErikH2000
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krammer wrote:
I predict that this prediction will not win this contest. ;)

Not accepted. It is impossible to verify the accuracy of the statement. The prediction could contribute to some extent, the degree of which is not measurable. And there's a paradox in there somewhere.

-Erik

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01-13-2005 at 11:24 PM
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TripleM
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You haven't put my three predictions in the other thread yet, Erik ;)
01-13-2005 at 11:44 PM
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ErikH2000 wrote:
quote:
krammer wrote:
I predict that this prediction will not win this contest. ;)

Not accepted. It is impossible to verify the accuracy of the statement. The prediction could contribute to some extent, the degree of which is not measurable. And there's a paradox in there somewhere.

-Erik


Furthermore, even if that issue was somewhat resolved, this could only be verified after the end of the contest, not before it.

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01-13-2005 at 11:58 PM
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trick
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Heh, you actually made the prediction true by rejecting it :fun
01-14-2005 at 01:43 AM
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Zmann
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I predict that Erik has more than 20 cups in his house.
I predict that Erik has less than 20 cups in his house.
I predict there will be no precipitation in Seattle, Washington on January 18th.
I predict there will be precipitation in Seattle, Washington on January 18th.
I predict Erik has blue carpet somewhere in his house.
I predict Erik does not have blue carpet somewhere in his house.
I predict Erik knows someone who's name is "Kyle".
I predict Erik does not know someone who's name is "Kyle".
01-14-2005 at 01:45 AM
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ErikH2000
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trick wrote:
Heh, you actually made the prediction true by rejecting it :fun

AHHIHIHIHIHIDFGDFgddfgdgdfgeee!!!!!

Somehow I feel manipulated. :look

-Erik

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01-14-2005 at 01:48 AM
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ErikH2000
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Zmann wrote:
I predict that Erik has more than 20 cups in his house.
I predict that Erik has less than 20 cups in his house.
I predict there will be no precipitation in Seattle, Washington on January 18th.
I predict there will be precipitation in Seattle, Washington on January 18th.
I predict Erik has blue carpet somewhere in his house.
I predict Erik does not have blue carpet somewhere in his house.
I predict Erik knows someone who's name is "Kyle".
I predict Erik does not know someone who's name is "Kyle".

I've decided to treat any statements of fact as future tense to make them proper predictions. So "I predict Erik has blue carpet somewhere in his house" becomes "I predict Erik will have blue carpet somewhere in his house." Agreeable?

-Erik

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01-14-2005 at 01:51 AM
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Zmann
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ErikH2000 wrote:
I've decided to treat any statements of fact as future tense to make them proper predictions. So "I predict Erik has blue carpet somewhere in his house" becomes "I predict Erik will have blue carpet somewhere in his house." Agreeable?

-Erik

Sounds good.

[Edited by Zmann at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 01:54 AM]
01-14-2005 at 01:53 AM
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stigant
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ErikH2000 wrote:
quote:
masonjason wrote:
I predict that any surjective function will be conceived of on the 19th of January that takes {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} to {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} will also be injective.

I don't have a math background sufficient to understand this one. Is there already some proof that the above is always true?



Yes. A surjection is a function which "covers" the output set. In other words, for each element in the output set, o, there is an element in the input set, i, which maps to o. An injection is a function in which each element in the input set maps to a different element in the output set. Since there are 50 elements in both sets, if every element in the output set is hit at least once, each element must be hit exactly once (otherwise there wouldn't be enough inputs to hit all the outputs).

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01-14-2005 at 02:33 AM
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ErikH2000
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stigant wrote:
quote:
ErikH2000 wrote:
quote:
masonjason wrote:
I predict that any surjective function will be conceived of on the 19th of January that takes {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} to {1, 2, 3, ..., 50} will also be injective.

I don't have a math background sufficient to understand this one. Is there already some proof that the above is always true?



Yes. A surjection is a function which "covers" the output set. In other words, for each element in the output set, o, there is an element in the input set, i, which maps to o. An injection is a function in which each element in the input set maps to a different element in the output set. Since there are 50 elements in both sets, if every element in the output set is hit at least once, each element must be hit exactly once (otherwise there wouldn't be enough inputs to hit all the outputs).

Okay, then I guess masonjason's prediction is true whether or not someone actually makes a surjective function on 1/19.

-Erik

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01-14-2005 at 02:45 AM
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Uh,yeah, ok, umm what did he say?


I don't have any math background other than adding, subtracting, etc. You are not alone, Sir Erik!

[Edited by sharonk at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 02:48 AM]

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01-14-2005 at 02:47 AM
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ErikH2000
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I am tracking the predictions over at this topic. The burden of proof really lies on authors to report when predictions become true or false and give sources, but if anybody notices that a prediction has been resolved, please post here with your findings. We can discuss it and I can update the tracking topic.

-Erik

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01-14-2005 at 02:50 AM
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Zmann
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Zmann wrote:
quote:
ErikH2000 wrote:
I've decided to treat any statements of fact as future tense to make them proper predictions. So "I predict Erik has blue carpet somewhere in his house" becomes "I predict Erik will have blue carpet somewhere in his house." Agreeable?

-Erik

Sounds good.

Actually, now that I think about it, I would like all my statements to be applicable to the date "January 18th". For example: "I predict Erik will have 20 cups in his house" is now changed to "I predict Erik will have 20 cups in his house on January 18th".
01-14-2005 at 03:01 AM
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eytanz
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Erik - there's a typo (my fault) in my last prediction; it should read "I predict that no player...", not "I predict that the no player..."



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01-14-2005 at 03:05 AM
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joker5
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I predict that Bush will continue supporting his changes to the government.
I predict that there will be no terrorist attack in the U.S. in North America, but I'm not saying anything about any U.S. Embassies.
I predict that Putin will not take more action centralizing his power in Russia.
I predict that the Dow will gain 2 percent or more barring any terrorist action in the world.
I predict that Microsoft stock will rise at least 5 points.
I predict that we will hear nothing of Guantanamo Bay, Saddam Hussein, or Osama bin Laden from any major newspapers or any White House statements until and unless Bush mentions them in a speech.
I predict that there will be either a hurricane or a tornado somewhere in the U.S.A.
I predict that the reader of this prediction will see at least one hobo before the due date if they walk through the downtown area of the nearest urban area for at least five minutes.
I predict that there will be no hailstorms that the reader of this prediction experiences before the due date.
I predict that there will be snow somewhere in Africa.
I predict that there will be a taciturn/implied/non-official confirmation of a sequel to JtRH. No feature list will be released or confirmed.
I predict The RIAA will not make a crackdown on movie sharers.
I predict no major games that are being produced by a brand name company (Like Lionhead, Rare, etc) or by first party groups will be delayed.
I predict that Bush will not 'press the offensive' against Iran or North Korea.
I predict that one or more major staples of network television (Like The Simpsons) will drop in ratings.
I predict that Gmail will not leave the beta phase.
I predict that Microsoft will be mentioned in five or more articles in non-Microsoft-centered publications on the Internet.
I predict that no third-world countries will declare that they possess WMD.
I predict that no third-world countries will deny that they have WMD.
I predict that no one on this forum will hear anything about the Native Americans unless they are studying American History.
I predict that over one hundred pounds of pie will be bought or consumed worldwide.
I predict a new Weebl and Bob episode.
I predict two; not more or less, Neko the Kitty comics.
I predict 6 or more new Bob and George comics.
I predict one new Eight-Bit Theater comic.


Edit: Pruned now!
~joker5

[Edited by joker5 at Local Time:01-14-2005 at 11:17 PM]

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01-14-2005 at 03:14 AM
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skell
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Wow, I never started in any contest:)
But there always must be... no matter. I don't know how it will be.:)

ok:

I predict that anybody from this forum won't eat his socks with Ketchup or/and Mayonnaise
I predict that I predict something.
I predict that I Don't predict anything.
I predict that Terrorist won't kill Alexander Kwasniewski in Poland
I predict that Moon will Eat my Pants
I predict that there is a Ziggy D. Bomb on the mars(Watch the "Demented Cartoon Movie")
I predict that I won't born a child.
I predict that I wont be an Moderator on Drod Forum.
I predict that I will Finish my game "Kulkis 2".
I predict that Unhappy Potatoes will Rule the whole Garden
I predict that somebody on this forum will use ":)"
I predict that I don't kiss with any girl
I predict that Somebody Somewhere Do Something to Somebody who killed Somebody

Ok Its end.
I thing(and Hope) you will ask about
"...that I predict something.
...that I Don't predict anything"
Well, if I will predict somethink, no problem.
But if not, it will lead to paradox(Guess why).

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01-14-2005 at 03:23 AM
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ErikH2000
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joker5 wrote:
I predict that

Okay, new rule...

Each contestant is capped at 30 predictions. I have to think about each one to see if it is acceptable. I have to consider if each one is accurate or not. I have to enter each one into a poll. The time adds up!

So I'm going to ask you to please go through your list and pick out your favorites to bring the count down. Anyone else may retract predictions to make room for better ones if they wish up until Local Time:01-15-2005 at 12:00 AM. (This is the same deadline and arrangement I described before.)

My apologies for not considering this earlier.

-Erik

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01-14-2005 at 05:12 AM
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ErikH2000
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skell wrote:
I predict that I predict something.
I predict that I Don't predict anything.
I predict that I won't born a child.
I predict that I will Finish my game "Kulkis 2".
I predict that I don't kiss with any girl


These can't be accepted because they are things under your control.
quote:
I predict that I wont be an Moderator on Drod Forum.
I predict that somebody on this forum will use ":)"


No forum-related predictions allowed.
quote:
I predict that Unhappy Potatoes will Rule the whole Garden

This is not something specific enough that we could verify.

-Erik

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01-14-2005 at 05:22 AM
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1 I predict that there won't be more than 300,000 deaths from tsunamis by the end of the week.(my prediction ends there)
2 I predict that it won't rain in Los Angeles until end of the week.(my prediction ends there)
3 I predict that there won't be more than 50 states in America by the end of the week.(my prediction ends there).


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01-14-2005 at 05:37 AM
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I predict that the Chievo-Roma score will be 1-4 (game on the 16th)

I predict that it will snow in Rome on the 18th

I predict that '12 angry men' will move in the top 20 of the table on http://us.imdb.com/chart/top (currently it's 21st)

I predict that Botswana will be in the news for some reason

I predict that someone called Thomas will become instantly famous


01-14-2005 at 06:55 AM
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robertstar20
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I predict Manchester United will beat Liverpool this weekend. ( http://www.premierleague.com/ )

I predict that Prince Harry will make some sort of verbal apology (press conference, some sort of video thingee, whatever) about his recent misbehavings. ( Any reputable news website )

I predict that Microsoft Corp shares (MSFT) will be worth more than 26.4 at noon, 21st January. ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MSFT&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= )

Rating all of these predictions is gonna be one hell of a job.
01-14-2005 at 08:29 AM
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The breakers lost, so count that prediction against me :(

01-14-2005 at 09:01 AM
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First off, I am impressed by this contest idea, which surely is in no way jaded to my disability to particpate in contests which involve lots of outright work (i.e. building a larger hold/set of holds) due to a general lack of uncommitted time. Hardcore DRODiacs probably prefer more DROD-related contests, and I also appreciate contests which add to our knowledge of the world of the Eighth such as the World Map Contest. That being said, here is my first contest entry. I should probably say first, though, that I read several of the entries above, but I didn't have time to read all of them yet, however I wanted to get my predictions in before they all came true. So sorry in advance if any are repeats and they will probably have to be considered invalid. Although there is no explicit rule about double predictions as far as I know, I think common sense would disallow them.

1. I predict that the Israelis and Palestinians will not let themselves be distracted from the peace process by the attack by palestinian terrorists last night. (Keep your fingers crossed.)

2. I predict that GWBush will say something stupid OR choke on something edible and pass out. He may or may not be permanently injured.

3. I predict that Condolezza Rice will replace Colin Powell in GWBush's new cabinett.

4. I predict that Morgan Freeman and Meryl Streep will win Golden Globes this weekend.

5. I predict that the space capsule Cassini-Huygens will crash on the surface of Titan (i.e. not carry out a controlled landing).

6. I predict that the JtRH progress bar will show at least 89.67 % at the end of this contest.

7. I predict that the US Dollar will be worth less than 0.78 Euros at the close of this contest.

8. I predict that the Big Quake will come and California will fall into the Pacific Ocean. (This one was so obvious that someone had to say it.) Governor Arnie will be, by sheer coincidence, near the San Andreas Fault and will try to hold the fault closed with his bare hands but will fail. Thereafter, a new saying will be born: "It's Arnie's Fault."

I wanted to predict that the British royal family would do something to embarass itself (seriously!), but I heard on the radio this morning that Harry beat me to the punch. So be sure to get your predictions in quickly. Whereas prediction 6 violates that letter of the rules, I don't think it violates their spirit, as the bar is not likely to be jiggered with just for the sake of my predictions. However, I am aware it carries a high chance of being disallowed.

--leroy

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01-14-2005 at 11:02 AM
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Fafnir
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icon Re: Predict the Future. (0)  
Yeah, I'd probably better retract my 'Impressive' predictions... Thanks for giving me the option.

I'll be using this post to note the verification of my predictions.

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1. I predict that at least one company will fire more than twenty people at once.

Nothing yet.

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2. I predict that there will be at least one scientific discovery.

Nothing yet that I've found.

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3. I predict that there will be at least one tectonic event.

See here

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4. I predict that the press will find something out about at least one celebrity that he/she didn't want them to know.

Do you count Prince Harry's Nazi sympathies?

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5. I predict that the ID card scheme in the UK will remain on track.

Can only be verified by waiting.

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6. I predict that the Dow Jones index will fall by 2% or more (going by Yahoo's stats).

Down 1.15% today (14/01/05, here) - not yet.

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7. I predict that no delay will be announced regarding the new Harry Potter book (a bit more risky, this one)

Can only be verified by waiting.

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8. I predict that a new 'issue' with one of Micro$oft's products' security will be discovered.

Nothing yet, but I'm confident.

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9. I predict that if an act of terror occurs, George Bush will try to use it to justify the war in Iraq. Yes, I know there's no connection.

No act of terror yet, so prediction is moot.

One last prediction:

quote:
10. I predict that at least two new (computer) pieces of malware will be created (this includes virii, trojans, worms, adware etc.)

Obviously nothing yet.

____________________________
Stupidity kills.
Absolute stupidity
Kills absolutely.
01-14-2005 at 01:55 PM
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