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noma
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
quote:
Dex Stewart wrote:
What do you people have against me?
Nothing, really. Well, except for the fact that, at that time, you were the only one without any broken mirrors. :D And since I missed, I guess I'd better try again.

Dex's 2nd mirror, left.
04-30-2009 at 11:27 PM
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Dex Stewart
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Well, I was actually worst off the beginning of this round since, on my two mirrors, there were 5 positions you guys hadn't yet hit. For kie the number was 6, for you it was 8 and for TripleM it was 9. Just sayin' :).

Also, it should be obvious that my second mirror is now destroyed. Only my third is left (hint: it's weak point is *not* at the bottom).
05-01-2009 at 12:05 AM
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kie
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Ignoring Dex's 'hint', I throw my rock at his third mirror, right.

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05-01-2009 at 12:30 AM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Noma's throw destroys Dex Stewart's second mirror.
Kie's throw destroys Dex Stewart's third mirror. Dex Stewart is eliminated.

Remaining:
kie: 13
noma: 12
TripleM: 13

Start round six.

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05-01-2009 at 12:37 AM
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kie
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
I throw my rock at TripleM's third mirror, middle.

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cheers, kie
05-01-2009 at 12:40 AM
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TripleM
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
kie's first mirror, middle.
05-01-2009 at 12:45 AM
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noma
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TripleM's 3rd mirror left.
05-01-2009 at 12:56 AM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Round 6:

Kie's throw destroys TripleM's third mirror.
TripleM's throw destroys kie's first mirror.

Remaining:
kie: 3
noma: 12
TripleM: 1

Begin Round 7.

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05-01-2009 at 12:57 AM
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TripleM
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noma's mirror 1, left.
05-01-2009 at 12:57 AM
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noma
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
kie's 3rd mirror bottom.
05-01-2009 at 01:07 AM
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kie
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
TripleM's first mirror bottom

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cheers, kie
05-01-2009 at 03:46 AM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Round 7:

No new breaks.

Remaining:
kie: 3
noma: 1 2
TripleM: 1

Begin Round 8.

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05-01-2009 at 04:03 AM
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TripleM
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noma's 2nd mirror top.
05-01-2009 at 04:43 AM
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kie
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noma's 1st middle

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cheers, kie
05-01-2009 at 05:43 AM
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noma
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I hit the left side of TripleM's 1st mirror.
05-01-2009 at 03:35 PM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Round 8:

Once again, we have no new broken mirrors.

Remaining:
kie: 3
noma: 1 2
TripleM: 1

Begin Round 9.

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[Last edited by RoboBob3000 at 05-01-2009 04:04 PM]
05-01-2009 at 04:03 PM
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TripleM
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
I will withhold my throw for a little while..

If kie targets me, I will target her back, which will give noma the victory when she also targets kie. So targetting me will lose you the challenge, kie :)

If noma targets me, kie and I can both target noma. This will knock out noma's mirror 1 and has a 1/3 chance of kie winning instantly; otherwise noma + kie will be in identical positions so a 50/50 chance from there. Overall, that gives kie a 1/3 + 1/2*2/3 = 2/3 chance of winning. So noma, targetting me will give you a 1/3 chance of victory only.

If you both target each other.. the odds are probably better for you both :)
05-01-2009 at 11:34 PM
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noma
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Ooh, blackmail! We'll see about that. ;)
05-02-2009 at 12:12 AM
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noma
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I think your odds and scenario are flawed TripleM. But it would keep you in for another round and a possible tie, so I understand the logic. :) However, I will still strike the right side of your 1st mirror, because, although I still might lose to chance, it leaves me the best odds of winning.
05-02-2009 at 12:35 AM
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TripleM
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RoboBob, I presume it is too late for noma to change her mind now? Because sadly, while my logic was indeed completely flawed, voting for me was actually the wrong thing to do..

noma, in the tiny chance RoboBob allows you to change your vote, consider this. Suppose kie + I vote for you. The best thing for you to do is actually vote for kie, not me. If you did vote for me it is a 1/3 chance of winning as mentioned above.

If you had voted for kie, we get the following:

1/3 of the time you are knocked out immediately, so we only consider the other 2/3.

1/2 the time kie is knocked out. noma will be left with 2 unhit regions, me 1. 1/2 of the time you win instantly, the other 1/2 it is split 50/50, so probability here = 1/2 * 3/4 = 3/8.

1/2 the time kie is not knocked out. noma has 2 unhit regions, kie and I 1 - the probabilities here are a lot more complex, but you definitely have a better chance of winning than either of us. So probability here is more than 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6.

Overall, that gives you a probability of more than 2/3 * (3/8 + 1/6) = 13/36 which is greater than 1/3.

So sadly, your logic was the flawed one :( Oh well, it's probably too late now.

[Last edited by TripleM at 05-02-2009 12:42 AM]
05-02-2009 at 12:42 AM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Once a throw has been thrown, that throw is a throw. No changing.

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05-02-2009 at 01:02 AM
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TripleM
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Oh well.

noma 1, right.
05-02-2009 at 01:08 AM
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Sillyman
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
However, the throw has not yet been thrown, as all throws are thrown simultaneously and the other two throws have not yet been aimed... confirm/deny?

Edit: Other one throw.

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FNORD

[Last edited by Sillyman at 05-02-2009 01:09 AM]
05-02-2009 at 01:08 AM
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RoboBob3000
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quote:
Sillyman wrote:
However, the throw has not yet been thrown, as all throws are thrown simultaneously and the other two throws have not yet been aimed... confirm/deny?

Edit: Other one throw.
And here I thought I was being clever with my wording.

I'm not going to let anybody change where they have aimed because I have already enforced it that way during this challenge (one instance, via PM).

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05-02-2009 at 01:12 AM
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TripleM
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(By the way, the only thing flawed about my first post was that you could just outlast me as the deadline was 3am my time. If I had been at the computer at the deadline it would have been correct.)
05-02-2009 at 01:33 AM
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kie
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OK, my rock flies at noma's 2nd mirror, bottom.

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cheers, kie
05-02-2009 at 03:09 AM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Round 9:

Noma's throw destroys TripleM's first mirror. TripleM is eliminated.
TripleM's throw destroys Noma's first mirror.

Remaining:
kie: 3
noma: 2

Coming down to the wire. Begin Round 10.

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05-02-2009 at 07:09 AM
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kie
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Eeny meeny, miny, mo
Left or right, where should I throw?

I ask my children and the vote is left.

So - I throw my rock at noma's 2nd mirror, left.

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cheers, kie
05-02-2009 at 07:23 AM
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noma
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Oh great. So now I'm throwing rocks at children!? Well, if there are tears, just remember it was your idea to bring them into the middle of this conflict. ;)

But I'll take your kids' advice: my rock hits your 3rd mirror, left.

[Last edited by noma at 05-02-2009 02:26 PM : Apostrophe needed]
05-02-2009 at 02:25 PM
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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: DROD Survivor 2 (0)  
Round 10 results:

Click here to view the secret text


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05-02-2009 at 06:47 PM
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