RoboBob, I presume it is too late for noma to change her mind now? Because sadly, while my logic was indeed completely flawed, voting for me was actually the wrong thing to do..
noma, in the tiny chance RoboBob allows you to change your vote, consider this. Suppose kie + I vote for you. The best thing for you to do is actually vote for kie, not me. If you did vote for me it is a 1/3 chance of winning as mentioned above.
If you had voted for kie, we get the following:
1/3 of the time you are knocked out immediately, so we only consider the other 2/3.
1/2 the time kie is knocked out. noma will be left with 2 unhit regions, me 1. 1/2 of the time you win instantly, the other 1/2 it is split 50/50, so probability here = 1/2 * 3/4 = 3/8.
1/2 the time kie is not knocked out. noma has 2 unhit regions, kie and I 1 - the probabilities here are a lot more complex, but you definitely have a better chance of winning than either of us. So probability here is more than 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6.
Overall, that gives you a probability of more than 2/3 * (3/8 + 1/6) = 13/36
which is greater than 1/3.
So sadly, your logic was the flawed one
Oh well, it's probably too late now.
[Last edited by TripleM at 05-02-2009 12:42 AM]
And since I missed, I guess I'd better try again. 
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