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Tim
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I've got a puzzle to post:

According to the news, the Bulgarian lottery has the same six numbers were drawn in two consecutive rounds.

Let me take some quotes from there:
The numbers - 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 - were chosen by a machine live on television on 6 and 10 September.
A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million.
The lottery organisers described it as a freak coincidence and pointed out that the numbers were drawn in a different order.
The puzzle is very simple: use the quotes to deduce how many balls they used.

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09-23-2009 at 03:36 AM
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TripleM
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Hah, how strange.

Click here to view the secret text

09-23-2009 at 12:01 PM
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Blondbeard
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TripleM wrote:
Hah, how strange.

Click here to view the secret text

Yeah, but that is provided that there are only one ball of every number. An information I suspect Tim forgot to give us.
09-23-2009 at 12:49 PM
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Rabscuttle
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I saw another source that says one in 14 million, which gives a slightly more definite answer
Click here to view the secret text


Can anyone find a source that actually gives the number of balls? I am curious now.

I am betting that given the total number of draws in all the lotteries everywhere, it's not too surprising that something like this has come up.
09-23-2009 at 01:18 PM
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jbluestein
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Rabscuttle wrote:
I am betting that given the total number of draws in all the lotteries everywhere, it's not too surprising that something like this has come up.

And the word is...stochasticity!

Very interesting stuff.

Josh

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[Last edited by jbluestein at 09-23-2009 04:48 PM]
09-23-2009 at 03:19 PM
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brian_s
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Not that hard, it just took me a little probability and the calculator on Windows.

Click here to view the secret text

09-23-2009 at 03:26 PM
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Tim
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Here's a link to the Bulgarian Lottery "History of withdrawals" page:

http://74.125.77.132/translate_c?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=bg&tl=en&u=http://www.toto.bg/index.php%3Flang%3D1%26pid%3D6%26sid%3D36

(Google translated link)

Edit: I doubt it's the mathematician (Mihail Konstantinov) who got it wrong. It's more likely that the journalist (not worthy of mention) is wrong here.

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09-23-2009 at 04:16 PM
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stigant
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a record 18 people guessed all six numbers in the 10 September draw.
Each will win 10,164 leva (£4,700).

So I note 2 things:
1. This wasn't a very large lottery. Assuming that they split the prize evenly 18 ways (how else?) and that they split the entire prize, the original prize was only 84600 pounds (about $138000). Although, I suppose that in Bulgaria, that might be quite a bit of money.
2. Conventional wisdom is that you shouldn't pick last week's numbers because they'll never come up. This is of course theoretically (and now empirically) false as the lottery doesn't have memory meaning that any combination (including last week's numbers) is as likely to come up as any other combination. So of course, there are always the people who will play last week's numbers to make the point. Which I guess paid off, but don't they still look a little silly since they now have to split the pay 18 ways?

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09-24-2009 at 02:05 AM
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TripleM
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stigant wrote:
2. Conventional wisdom is that you shouldn't pick last week's numbers because they'll never come up. This is of course theoretically (and now empirically) false as the lottery doesn't have memory meaning that any combination (including last week's numbers) is as likely to come up as any other combination. So of course, there are always the people who will play last week's numbers to make the point. Which I guess paid off, but don't they still look a little silly since they now have to split the pay 18 ways?

Yup. For the same reason, you should never pick 1 2 3 4 5 6 if you enter the lottery, since if you did happen to win, you'd share the prize with a huge number of statisticians trying to prove a point, so you wouldn't get that much money :)
09-24-2009 at 02:44 AM
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DanielFishman
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On a similar note, you want to avoid the likes of 7, 13 and (particularly) 17, as these are the numbers humans tend to pick when choosing numbers at random.
http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/is_17_the_most_random_number.php
09-25-2009 at 11:23 PM
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brian_s
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This is a relativly simple cryptarithm puzzle:

Each of the letters A,E,F,H,O,R,T,W,and X represents a different digit from 0 to 9 in the addition below (none of E,T,or W are zero). Can you find out which letters represent which digits?
 WORTH
   THE
+EXTRA
------
EFFORT

Hint:
Click here to view the secret text

09-29-2009 at 02:26 AM
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Nuntar
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It's impossible.

Firstly, W + E is at most 17, so EF cannot be > 19, so E = 1.

O + X is also at most 17, so FF cannot be 22 or more, so F = 0.

W then cannot be 9 (or O + X would have to be 0), nor can W be 7 or less (O + X + the carry from the hundreds cannot be 20) so W = 8.

Now, E = 1 means the carry from the units is at most 1, so either T + H = 10 or T + H + 1 = 10.

Case 1: T + H = 10. Then H < T (since there is no carry) and A = T - H - 1. Possible values for (H,T,A) are (2,8,5); (3,7,3); (4,6,1). All of these would repeat a digit.

Case 2: T + H + 1 = 10. Then T < H and A = T + 9 - H. Possible values for (H,T,A) are (5,4,8); (6,3,6); (7,2,4). Only the last of these does not repeat a digit.

But if T = 2 and there is a carry of 1 from the tens, either R + 5 = O or R - O = 5. None of the leftover digits (3, 5, 6 and 9) differ by 5.

As for your hint,
Click here to view the secret text


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09-29-2009 at 03:25 PM
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jbluestein
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Nuntar wrote:
It's impossible.


No, it's not.

Click here to view the secret text


Josh


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[Last edited by jbluestein at 09-29-2009 03:38 PM]
09-29-2009 at 03:37 PM
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Nuntar
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Hmm, must have missed that one.

Anyway, since you've given us the answer I guess that makes it my turn anyway :P

This puzzle originates from one of Raymond Smullyan's books, but I was never that happy about Smullyan's solution. (It meets his conditions, but you feel that it skips over what was interesting about the puzzle in the first place.) So I've added an extra condition that rules his solution out.

You are taken to the now-very-familiar island of Knights and Knaves, where the knights always tell the truth and the knaves always lie. The King has decided to test your intelligence in the following manner. When you come to him and say you are ready to take the challenge, the Vizier (whom you will not have had the opportunity of previously meeting) will appear before you, and you have to determine his type only by asking him questions. However, you may not ask him any question to which you at that point in time know the correct answer. In addition, once you have started asking questions, you may not gain information from any source other than his answers to your questions; for instance you cannot ask him "What colour underpants are you wearing?" and then take a peek to see whether he told the truth.

Can it be done?

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09-29-2009 at 03:59 PM
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noma
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I think it can be done in two or three questions.

Question 1: where were you born?
Answer: X

Question 2: Were you born in Y?
If answer = yes, then the Vizier is Knave
If answer = no, then the Vizier may be a Knight or - if he actually was born in Y - he may be a Knave

Question 3: Were you born in Z?
If answer = yes, then the Vizier is a Knave
If answer = no, then the Vizier is Knight


09-29-2009 at 04:23 PM
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Nuntar
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If the Vizier answers "no" to your second question, he must have been born in X if he's a knight or in Y if he's a knave. Either way, you know that "no" is the correct answer to the third question, so this solution doesn't fulfil the criteria.

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09-29-2009 at 05:24 PM
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DanielFishman
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Nuntar wrote:
If the Vizier answers "no" to your second question, he must have been born in X if he's a knight or in Y if he's a knave. Either way, you know that "no" is the correct answer to the third question, so this solution doesn't fulfil the criteria.
The same argument means that it is impossible. Because there must, at some point, be a final question, and there must be an answer to this question which means the Vizier is a knight, and (at least) one answer which means the Vizier is a knave. But the answer to the question which means the Vizier is a knight must be true one; so you know the true answer to this final question.
09-29-2009 at 06:05 PM
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Nuntar
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One of the characters in the book tried to use that argument ;) There is, however, a subtle flaw in it.

(I guess it's not giving too much away if I reveal at this point that it is possible.)

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09-29-2009 at 06:29 PM
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jbluestein
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Nuntar wrote:
One of the characters in the book tried to use that argument ;) There is, however, a subtle flaw in it.

(I guess it's not giving too much away if I reveal at this point that it is possible.)

Puzzles of this type usually involve some sort of bit-flipping such that a combination of Knight and Knave answers yields a different result. So far none of my doodling has come up with a functional answer, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that it was possible.

Can it be done in one question?

Josh

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09-29-2009 at 06:45 PM
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Nuntar
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jbluestein wrote:
Can it be done in one question?

Josh
No.

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09-29-2009 at 06:55 PM
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DanielFishman
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The argument I gave in my previous post shows that you can't get the answer in less than n questions for some previously known n.

However, take some countably infinite set of properties X, which the Vizier is known to possess (at least) one of. (And, to be pedantic, take an enumeration Y(n=1...inf) of X).

Now, for each n=1...inf, ask the Vizier:
"Are the following statements both true: 'you are a knight' and 'you do not possess property Y(n)'?"
A knave will always answer "yes" to this; a knight will answer "yes" also, unless he does possess property Y(n), in which case he will answer "no".
Then ask
"Is either of the following statements false: 'you are a knave' and 'you do not possess property Y(n)'?"
A knight will always answer "yes"; a knave will also answer "yes" if he does not possess property Y(n), but "no" if he does.

So you will keep getting answers of "yes", until you reach the first property the Vizier does have. At which point, the Vizier will answer "no" to the first question if he is a knight, and "no" to the second question if he is a knave. But because you don't know whether the Vizier has a given property or not, you will never know the correct answer to a question until he does answer "no" to a question. And because X is countably infinite and Y(n) is an enumeration of it you will eventually reach a property the Vizier does possess.

Where I'm stumped, however, is in finding a suitable set X. Age in days?
09-29-2009 at 08:49 PM
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jbluestein
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DanielFishman wrote:
The argument I gave in my previous post shows that you can't get the answer in less than n questions for some previously known n.

However, take some countably infinite set of properties X, which the Vizier is known to possess (at least) one of. (And, to be pedantic, take an enumeration Y(n=1...inf) of X).

Now, for each n=1...inf, ask the Vizier:
"Are the following statements both true: 'you are a knight' and 'you do not possess property Y(n)'?"
A knave will always answer "yes" to this; a knight will answer "yes" also, unless he does possess property Y(n), in which case he will answer "no".
Then ask
"Is either of the following statements false: 'you are a knave' and 'you do not possess property Y(n)'?"
A knight will always answer "yes"; a knave will also answer "yes" if he does not possess property Y(n), but "no" if he does.

So you will keep getting answers of "yes", until you reach the first property the Vizier does have. At which point, the Vizier will answer "no" to the first question if he is a knight, and "no" to the second question if he is a knave. But because you don't know whether the Vizier has a given property or not, you will never know the correct answer to a question until he does answer "no" to a question. And because X is countably infinite and Y(n) is an enumeration of it you will eventually reach a property the Vizier does possess.

Where I'm stumped, however, is in finding a suitable set X. Age in days?

I think that the problem with your approach is that it requires some external form of knowledge, which the parameters of the puzzle explicitly prohibit. I can't say "Are you a knight with blond hair?", and any question about properties is essentially a variation on that theme. At least, that's the way I understand that.

Josh

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09-29-2009 at 09:15 PM
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Nuntar
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Excellent answer. As for finding a suitable property, age in days would certainly do it (so long as your first question is "are you a knight younger than n days?" for a suitable n; starting at 1 day wouldn't fulfil the criteria). The questioning might take a while though! Age in years would be better. Even though the number of possibilities is finite, all you need for it to work is the reasonable assumption that whatever his age really is, it could have been one more. Another couple of ideas that work are amount of money in his pocket, number of siblings, etc... you know the idea.

Over to you.

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09-29-2009 at 09:15 PM
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Nuntar
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jbluestein wrote:
I think that the problem with your approach is that it requires some external form of knowledge, which the parameters of the puzzle explicitly prohibit. I can't say "Are you a knight with blond hair?", and any question about properties is essentially a variation on that theme. At least, that's the way I understand that.

(1) The puzzle only prohibits obtaining knowledge from external sources after beginning questioning. You could ask "Are you a knight with blond hair?" since you can see his hair colour before you start.

(2) In the case of age in days, you are not gaining knowledge about his age from anything other than the answers to his questions, so the criterion is met.

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09-29-2009 at 09:18 PM
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jbluestein
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Nuntar wrote:
jbluestein wrote:
I think that the problem with your approach is that it requires some external form of knowledge, which the parameters of the puzzle explicitly prohibit. I can't say "Are you a knight with blond hair?", and any question about properties is essentially a variation on that theme. At least, that's the way I understand that.

(1) The puzzle only prohibits obtaining knowledge from external sources after beginning questioning. You could ask "Are you a knight with blond hair?" since you can see his hair colour before you start.

Well, quoting you above, I see:

However, you may not ask him any question to which you at that point in time know the correct answer.

...which seemed to me to pretty clearly prohibit questions about externalities. But perhaps I was just misunderstanding you.

Josh


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[Last edited by jbluestein at 09-29-2009 09:38 PM]
09-29-2009 at 09:37 PM
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Nuntar
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Okay, I wasn't entirely clear in my last post. If he doesn't have blond hair, you can't ask "Are you a knight with blond hair?" since you know the correct answer is no. But if he has blond hair, you can ask that question since you don't know the correct answer (since you don't know his knight/knave status). It wouldn't help you, of course, since if he's known to have blond hair then it's really tantamount to asking "Are you a knight?", which is never useful because all knights or knaves will answer yes.

In the case of age in days, though, since you don't know his age or his knight/knave status and you aren't finding information out from an external source, the question is legitimate.

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09-29-2009 at 10:04 PM
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noma
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Nuntar wrote:
If the Vizier answers "no" to your second question, he must have been born in X if he's a knight or in Y if he's a knave. Either way, you know that "no" is the correct answer to the third question, so this solution doesn't fulfil the criteria.
:? I'm approaching this more from a practical perspective than a mathematical one, so I apologize for my obtuseness. A Knave must always lie, right? And I'm assuming there are more than two cities in the Kingdom. So if the Vizier is a Knave, then to any question "Were you born in (city)?" that doesn't name the city he actually was born in, his answer must always be "Yes." And since you can't be born in more than one city -- well, unless you're some kind of magic multi ;) -- then once he agrees to being born in more than one city, you've clearly established he is a Knave, no?

I know most of you don't need this spelled out but it helps me, so... For example, you ask, "What city were you born in?" He answers, "Munson." At this point you can't determine his orientation. Next you ask, "Were you born in Spokane?" If he is a Knave, and was not born in Spokane, he must lie and answer "Yes" At this point, you don't need to ask another question, since he can't have been born in Munson and in Spokane, and therefore must be a Knave. But if he's a Knight he will answer, "No." Or if he was a Knave who was actually born in Spokane, he must lie and also answer "No." So now you need to ask about another question to be sure. "Where you born in Zzyzx?" If he is a Knight, he will once again answer "No." But if he is a Knave he must answer "Yes." So now you have a Vizier that has clearly said he was born in two different cities -- Munson and Zzyzx: an impossibility. Therefore clearly indicating he is a Knave.

This /seems/ pretty straightforward to me. In fact, I think it would work with other things you can only have one of, like first names. But there's probably an obviousness I'm missing, so if someone could explain, I'd appreciate it. (Without the n's please. :))
09-30-2009 at 12:32 AM
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Nuntar
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noma wrote:
But there's probably an obviousness I'm missing, so if someone could explain, I'd appreciate it. (Without the n's please. :))

I'm not sure what you mean by "without the n's" -- that you want someone without any n's in their name, i.e. not me, to explain? Ah well, I'll give it a shot anyway.

The point is that the conditions of the problem prohibit you from asking question to which you, at that point (i.e. as opposed to at the beginning of your series of questions) know the correct answer. Now, if he says "No" to your second question "Were you born in Spokane?" then he is -- as you correctly explained -- either a knight (and was therefore born in Munson, since he said so) or a knave who was born in Spokane. Either way, the correct answer to "Were you born in Zzyzx?" is "no", so you may not ask that question now.

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09-30-2009 at 12:54 AM
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Nuntar wrote:
I'm not sure what you mean by "without the n's" -- that you want someone without any n's in their name, i.e. not me, to explain? Ah well, I'll give it a shot anyway.
I assume he means "avoiding the mathematical notation Daniel used" :blush

(I haven't forgotten, btw, that I need to post a puzzle - I am trying to think of one)
09-30-2009 at 01:10 AM
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noma
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Nuntar wrote:
The point is that the conditions of the problem prohibit you from asking question to which you, at that point (i.e. as opposed to at the beginning of your series of questions) know the correct answer.
Ah. Thank you. So the obviousness is that I need to brush up on my reading comprehension skills. :D
09-30-2009 at 01:35 AM
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