Kevin_P86
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 535
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I'll guess 405,504.

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Lardarse
Level: Delver

Rank Points: 56
Registered: 08-26-2005
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And now geomatrx is out as coppro moves into the winning position...

Btw, matt: My guess in the first post is listed as being 508435, but it's actually 508405. Any chance you could fix that? [fixed - mrimer]

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[Last edited by mrimer at 09-27-2006 07:40 PM]

Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2388
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Bah! Mike messed up my messed-up tags. But I can't be too mad at him because he did an admirable job of holding the fort.

It'll be a while until the next knock-out, so we'll see you all then!

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BDR
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 106
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Hmm.. presuming that the bar clicks hit 260K on the 27th, and gained 5K in the last 6 days, and that this is useful as an average, this means that there are about 35 clicks an hour for 840 clicks a day. I figure it will take somewhere between 3-4 more months to finish TCB even though it's at 86% (considering that the Summer 06 SMS CDs still haven't come out yet, let alone the Fall 06 ones), thus I say... 356,602 clicks.

Ok, so the ifs involved don't make it much better than random. Doesn't mean I can't dream!

EDIT: What happens if someone guesses the exact number? Not that I think it will happen....

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[Last edited by BDR at 10-04-2006 04:52 AM]

Rabscuttle
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2518
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EDIT: What happens if someone guesses the exact number? Not that I think it will happen....

They win.

BDR
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 106
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Rabscuttle wrote:

They win.

Mmph, right... imprecise question. Does anything *special* happen if someone guesses the exact number of clicks?

NiroZ
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1302
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BDR wrote:

Rabscuttle wrote:

They win.

Mmph, right... imprecise question. Does anything *special* happen if someone guesses the exact number of clicks?

We would then applaud the winnners precision and luck

DebbyVH
Level: Roachling
Rank Points: 10
Registered: 07-14-2005
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My guess will be: 300001.

RoboBob3000
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1982
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BDR wrote:

Rabscuttle wrote:

They win.

Mmph, right... imprecise question. Does anything *special* happen if someone guesses the exact number of clicks?

We will click on the bar once and claim that they lied.

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BDR
Level: Master Delver

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RoboBob3000 wrote:

BDR wrote:

Rabscuttle wrote:

They win.

Mmph, right... imprecise question. Does anything *special* happen if someone guesses the exact number of clicks?

We will click on the bar once and claim that they lied.

Doesn't that assume the bar is still working at the time (and the final number of clicks hasn't already been announced)?

Mattcrampy
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And coppro is out! But it won't be long until RoboBob falls as well! Keep clicking, true believers!

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davis
Level: Roachling
Rank Points: 11
Registered: 12-13-2005
IP: Logged

I guess 551893.

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y=mx+b

Maurog
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File: thelivingbar.jpg (9.8 KB)
Downloaded 998 times.
License: Public Domain

And Lst6 has lost! The new winner (for now) is Jason!



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Paint the sky in crimson red!

Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

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There is one guess I haven't added and don't intend to add in its current form: DebbyVH's guess of 300,001, which tramples all over Jatopian's guess. Because I'm a terrible totalitarian, I'm saying that's not fair on Jatopian and I'm not counting it as a guess, but then I undo all that totalitarian stuff by throwing it open to the floor: guys, what do you think I should do with this guess instead?

(Of course, if Jatopian wants to have just the number 300,000, this can also be arranged, but don't feel pressured to give up your turn, bud!)

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mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

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Mattcrampy wrote:
There is one guess I haven't added and don't intend to add in its current form: DebbyVH's guess of 300,001, which tramples all over Jatopian's guess. Because I'm a terrible totalitarian, I'm saying that's not fair on Jatopian and I'm not counting it as a guess, but then I undo all that totalitarian stuff by throwing it open to the floor: guys, what do you think I should do with this guess instead?

(Of course, if Jatopian wants to have just the number 300,000, this can also be arranged, but don't feel pressured to give up your turn, bud!)

If this type of play is not allowed, then it should have already been a rule of the game. It's a well-known strategy to play one number higher than an opponent, so I say it's no fair to add a new rule about this in the middle of a long-established game.

____________________________
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Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

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[Last edited by mrimer at 11-02-2006 05:07 PM]

jjohn7418
Level: Master Delver
Rank Points: 161
Registered: 08-24-2003
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I think the guess of 300,001 should be allowed. That is the chance you take making a guess. Look at all of those contestants on "The Price is Right" that used the same strategy to win prizes.

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zex20913
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I think it's a fair guess, but I'd like to give it a disincentive somehow--like if you trample somebody's guess by less than 1,000 (or some fixed number), then you can only choose half of your expected range. Lower half/upper half, evens/odds, something should be in play to discourage this--especially because we're letting the guessing for those who haven't guessed go on until TCB come. The previous phrase, I think, I will use to replace "'til kingdom come", if I were to ever use that phrase.

But yeah--since there are technically a world-sized population of possible guessers, there has to be some sort of guess-protection. Maybe sharing guesses could be allowed?

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Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

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Jason's time is up!

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Krissan
Level: Delver

Rank Points: 89
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I'll go with 385000

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jbluestein
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zex20913 wrote:
I think it's a fair guess, but I'd like to give it a disincentive somehow--like if you trample somebody's guess by less than 1,000 (or some fixed number), then you can only choose half of your expected range. Lower half/upper half, evens/odds, something should be in play to discourage this--especially because we're letting the guessing for those who haven't guessed go on until TCB come. The previous phrase, I think, I will use to replace "'til kingdom come", if I were to ever use that phrase.

Speaking of which...look who has a guess that's less than 1000 higher than mine?

Mine must have been a good guess.

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Mattcrampy
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Ha! Now we're into the business end of the lottery - guesses start getting only a couple of thousand clicks apart, so we should have a new winner every few days. (Also, I'm thinking that the problems I had deciding what to do re: the 300001 guess are probably going to be resolved before TCB comes out.)

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UrAvgAzn
Level: Smiter

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As I speak (err.. type), there are exactly 14362 clicks 'til my number. Gah! The suspense is killing me!

Keep posting,

____________________________
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Such grief, such joy, to live at all."
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Maurog
Level: Smitemaster

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The crown moves from gamer_extreme_101 to Ezlo.

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Mattcrampy
Level: Smitemaster

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Okay, I've made a decision on what to do about DebbyVH's guess:

In the event that the bar stops before it reaches Mouse, I'll either flip a coin to determine the winner or split the prize between them.

Actually, what I'd prefer to happen is run a random number generator so the odds of one of them winning depends on how far away the bar got from their guess. But that involves programming so I'm giving myself an escape clause.

In any case, at least she gets to play now, which I think is also sort of the point.

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Rabscuttle
Level: Smitemaster

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What, what have I missed here?

...

pfft. If you're going to change the rules mid-contest and mess with people's strategies, you could at least change it fairly - so that everyone who guesses below the bar gets a chance of winning inversely proportional to the amount that they are off by.

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[Last edited by Rabscuttle at 12-06-2006 06:52 AM]

Mattcrampy
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Well, two things: I'm not willing to shut Jatopian out of the game through no fault of his own, which is what everyone appears to be calling for, and it probably won't matter because I doubt the bar will stop before 303000 anyway.

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Rabscuttle
Level: Smitemaster

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Given the (original) rules of the game, it is entirely his fault - he voted early and voting early means that you are going to be open for someone to one-up you.

Maurog
Level: Smitemaster

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It moved again... jbluestein has it, but not for long.

____________________________
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Bunches
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 192
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mrimer is wining!

Kevin_P86
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 535
Registered: 06-28-2005
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He should release TCB quick before it gets to 300,000, then! *hint* *hint*

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