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Caravel Forum : Caravel Boards : Contests : Vote for most impressive predictions. (A multiple question poll)
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RankEntryAverageStandard Deviation
1334.09523809523812.2867061340082
213.90476190476191.6302135970118
3423.38095238095242.3396416183882
3473.38095238095242.5350155531821
533.33333333333332.6246692913373
6543.28571428571432.1412692529445
7533.23809523809522.0909046095333
7453.23809523809521.6302135970118
9553.19047619047622.0614153163727
10493.14285714285711.2830660557436
11231.9760470401187
113832.6547352123364
114032.1602468994693
14192.9523809523812.1263917677872
15562.90476190476192.1135562877307
16412.71428571428572.0963200669576
16142.71428571428571.9552823969188
18462.57142857142862.5740727146171
18212.57142857142862.2375885951373
18572.57142857142861.3299276232161
21432.52380952380951.4013275209107
22242.42857142857142.1060327988091
22442.42857142857141.9656921371953
2452.38095238095242.058112646188
24502.38095238095242.1707183466746
24312.38095238095242.1707183466746
27372.33333333333332.0548046676563
28302.28571428571432.073480100674
28182.28571428571432.0033984731393
30272.23809523809522.0448486241508
30342.23809523809522.0214271692182
32322.09523809523812.0909046095333
32202.09523809523811.9977311393717
32162.09523809523811.9737506453393
35172.0476190476191.9874892147342
35262.0476190476192.3396416183882
375221.9518001458971
372321.9518001458971
39151.9523809523811.9633836312465
40481.90476190476192.6350162537632
41511.85714285714291.9587584572574
42281.80952380952381.9424836242258
43221.76190476190481.9494751895675
44251.71428571428571.9059520091609
44361.71428571428571.9307747554965
4681.66666666666671.9840634910476
4691.66666666666671.9840634910476
48351.57142857142861.941315915299
49391.52380952380951.9178124348193
49121.52380952380951.9178124348193
51291.47619047619051.9178124348193
51111.47619047619051.9178124348193
5341.42857142857141.9166296949998
5361.42857142857141.9166296949998
53101.42857142857141.9166296949998
53131.42857142857141.9166296949998
5371.42857142857141.9166296949998
Have you read the instructions for this poll?
Yes! Onward! PollPollPoll 14 63.64%
No, and I really need to do that. PollPollPoll 2 9.09%

1
12345678910
Average Vote 3.9047619047619
Standard Deviation 1.6302135970118

2
12345678910
Average Vote 3
Standard Deviation 1.9760470401187

3
12345678910
Average Vote 3.3333333333333
Standard Deviation 2.6246692913373

4
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 1.9166296949998

5
12345678910
Average Vote 2.3809523809524
Standard Deviation 2.058112646188

6
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 1.9166296949998

7
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 1.9166296949998

8
12345678910
Average Vote 1.6666666666667
Standard Deviation 1.9840634910476

9
12345678910
Average Vote 1.6666666666667
Standard Deviation 1.9840634910476

10
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 1.9166296949998

11
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4761904761905
Standard Deviation 1.9178124348193

12
12345678910
Average Vote 1.5238095238095
Standard Deviation 1.9178124348193

13
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 1.9166296949998

14
12345678910
Average Vote 2.7142857142857
Standard Deviation 1.9552823969188

15
12345678910
Average Vote 1.952380952381
Standard Deviation 1.9633836312465

16
12345678910
Average Vote 2.0952380952381
Standard Deviation 1.9737506453393

17
12345678910
Average Vote 2.047619047619
Standard Deviation 1.9874892147342

18
12345678910
Average Vote 2.2857142857143
Standard Deviation 2.0033984731393

19
12345678910
Average Vote 2.952380952381
Standard Deviation 2.1263917677872

20
12345678910
Average Vote 2.0952380952381
Standard Deviation 1.9977311393717

21
12345678910
Average Vote 2.5714285714286
Standard Deviation 2.2375885951373

22
12345678910
Average Vote 1.7619047619048
Standard Deviation 1.9494751895675

23
12345678910
Average Vote 2
Standard Deviation 1.9518001458971

24
12345678910
Average Vote 2.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 2.1060327988091

25
12345678910
Average Vote 1.7142857142857
Standard Deviation 1.9059520091609

26
12345678910
Average Vote 2.047619047619
Standard Deviation 2.3396416183882

27
12345678910
Average Vote 2.2380952380952
Standard Deviation 2.0448486241508

28
12345678910
Average Vote 1.8095238095238
Standard Deviation 1.9424836242258

29
12345678910
Average Vote 1.4761904761905
Standard Deviation 1.9178124348193

30
12345678910
Average Vote 2.2857142857143
Standard Deviation 2.073480100674

31
12345678910
Average Vote 2.3809523809524
Standard Deviation 2.1707183466746

32
12345678910
Average Vote 2.0952380952381
Standard Deviation 2.0909046095333

33
12345678910
Average Vote 4.0952380952381
Standard Deviation 2.2867061340082

34
12345678910
Average Vote 2.2380952380952
Standard Deviation 2.0214271692182

35
12345678910
Average Vote 1.5714285714286
Standard Deviation 1.941315915299

36
12345678910
Average Vote 1.7142857142857
Standard Deviation 1.9307747554965

37
12345678910
Average Vote 2.3333333333333
Standard Deviation 2.0548046676563

38
12345678910
Average Vote 3
Standard Deviation 2.6547352123364

39
12345678910
Average Vote 1.5238095238095
Standard Deviation 1.9178124348193

40
12345678910
Average Vote 3
Standard Deviation 2.1602468994693

41
12345678910
Average Vote 2.7142857142857
Standard Deviation 2.0963200669576

42
12345678910
Average Vote 3.3809523809524
Standard Deviation 2.3396416183882

43
12345678910
Average Vote 2.5238095238095
Standard Deviation 1.4013275209107

44
12345678910
Average Vote 2.4285714285714
Standard Deviation 1.9656921371953

45
12345678910
Average Vote 3.2380952380952
Standard Deviation 1.6302135970118

46
12345678910
Average Vote 2.5714285714286
Standard Deviation 2.5740727146171

47
12345678910
Average Vote 3.3809523809524
Standard Deviation 2.5350155531821

48
12345678910
Average Vote 1.9047619047619
Standard Deviation 2.6350162537632

49
12345678910
Average Vote 3.1428571428571
Standard Deviation 1.2830660557436

50
12345678910
Average Vote 2.3809523809524
Standard Deviation 2.1707183466746

51
12345678910
Average Vote 1.8571428571429
Standard Deviation 1.9587584572574

52
12345678910
Average Vote 2
Standard Deviation 1.9518001458971

53
12345678910
Average Vote 3.2380952380952
Standard Deviation 2.0909046095333

54
12345678910
Average Vote 3.2857142857143
Standard Deviation 2.1412692529445

55
12345678910
Average Vote 3.1904761904762
Standard Deviation 2.0614153163727

56
12345678910
Average Vote 2.9047619047619
Standard Deviation 2.1135562877307

57
12345678910
Average Vote 2.5714285714286
Standard Deviation 1.3299276232161
Total Votes 28 100%
Poster Message
ErikH2000
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icon Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
All of these predictions came true. I would like you, the voter, to rate how impressive on a scale of 1 to 10 you believe each prediction is. Or in other words, to what extent does the success of the prediction indicate amazing abilities or luck of the predictor? "1" is something completely obvious, like the sun will come out tomorrow. "10" is something freakishly improbable, like Martin Luther King Jr. rising up from his grave.

Many of the predictions were too long to fit in the poll questions, so I just put a prediction# for each question. You can look up the corresponding prediction in the topic linked to above.

Oh, please, please, let me not have screwed up on this time-consuming poll. I predict that I did screw up on it and will have to do it all over again. :no

-Erik

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02-01-2005 at 08:04 PM
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krammer
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
How do you want us to rate our own predictions? As we feel they should be, or just giving them a fixed value?

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"Oook!"
02-01-2005 at 08:11 PM
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Schik
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
quote:
10. Contestants are obligated to rate their own predictions as "10"


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The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way it treats its animals.
--Mahatma Gandhi
02-01-2005 at 08:19 PM
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Schik
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (+2)  
And for all of those who have voted, you can always see the current standings at http://www.drod.net/forum/currentcontest.php .


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The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way it treats its animals.
--Mahatma Gandhi
02-01-2005 at 09:04 PM
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DiMono
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
Are we allowed to discuss things?

And should this thread be stickied?

Edit: I noticed after making the post that the thread is stickied. I'll leave the comment here though, as a testament to my momentary blindness.

Edit again: After wandering off to count my toes, I came back to discover that I was originally correct, and I was only blind the second time. I shall now leave this post exactly the way it is so that young children can read it and become utterly confused.

[Edited by DiMono at Local Time:02-02-2005 at 02:18 AM]

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Deploy the... I think it's a yellow button... it's usually flashing... it makes the engines go... WHOOSH!
02-02-2005 at 02:10 AM
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ErikH2000
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
Actually, I stickied it in response to your post. Also, it is fine to talk about whatever you like.

Original contest rules found here:
http://www.drod.net/forum/viewtopic.php?TopicID=4880&page=0

-Erik

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02-02-2005 at 02:18 AM
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DiMono
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
Well, am I alone in realising that almost every one of the predictions was something either 50/50 (X will defeat Y), or 100% certain (Jan 20 will come after Jan 19)? There are going to be a looooooooot of 1s and 2s in this contest, which I find mildly discouraging. Accurate or not, predicting that "either x will happen or it won't" just isn't that impressive.

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Deploy the... I think it's a yellow button... it's usually flashing... it makes the engines go... WHOOSH!
02-02-2005 at 02:20 AM
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ErikH2000
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
What about that prediction about the illustration on the cover of Time Magazine? How was that managed?

-Erik

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02-02-2005 at 02:27 AM
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ErikH2000
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
This very large poll is hard for low-bandwidth users to view. Please take any further replies to:

http://www.drod.net/forum/viewtopic.php?TopicID=5045&page=0#51482

-Erik

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02-02-2005 at 02:32 AM
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rowrow
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icon Re: Vote for most impressive predictions. (0)  
Results:

[Edited by rowrow at Local Time:02-06-2005 at 09:37 PM]

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B'hakhgra Du S'tra Moth'ness Ti!
02-06-2005 at 09:35 PM
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