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joker5
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icon Contest analysis (+1)  
I've been going over the predictions again... it looks kinda confusing. I've pretty much got almost everyone's final rating predicted. Except bradwall - it depends on how impressive you think something being released is. I personally think it's pretty cool, but not more than a 6. However, others may disagree and rate it higher.

In any event, on with the breakdown.

First off, Fafnir. Scoring a whopping 80% on some rather risky predictions, this champion's predictions are (rather pessimistically scored) at

2
1
x
1
3
1
1
1

the X is amazingly uncertain; it all depends on whether or not you think Fafnir meant any kind of movement in the earth's crust, any kind of movement in the plates, or something of tsunami-generating proportion. His accuracy rating is .8, so his rating seems to come out to about... 10.666 percent if you're really pessimistic about the tectonics thing and give it a 1, 12 percent if you're a bit more generous.


Next up, DiMono.
This man scored
2
1
1
1
with an accuracy rating of .4. Although he made a good showing, low accuracy brought him down to a brutal .5 percent.

Krammer!
A silent contender... he could be the winner, depending on how the vote swings.

Personally, I'm not surprised by 2 or 3 so I gave them both ones, but number 1 is a stumper. I really don't know much about cricket, which is probably part of the impact of the thing; it's stuff what you don't know. Personally, I usually rate these lowly because I suspect weaselage, but the nice non-round number (and the reasonably bad team) brought this prediction's average up to a 2. So, for 100 percent accuracy, Krammer nets a total of..... 13.333 percent! Could be the winner!

Bradwall... the mystery contestant!

HE scored a .5 accuracy, which would normally be slaughter on the score, but he also predicted a long-awaited release of a fairly major piece of software. Anyway, his score AT A BARE MINIMUM is 10 percent, and if it goes any higher (which it probably will) it'll be a total lockout - no other contestant will stand a chance against his mighty 15+ percent. That is; if he had one more prediction. Tough luck bradwall, if you had had ONE MORE prediction you could have won.

Eytanz: Obvious predictions, total accuracy. 10 percent; nothing more need be said.

MasonJason.

A tricky case, this. e scored a mere .416 on accuracy, but his predictions scored a
1
1
1
1
5. This nets him a .18 on impressiveness, but his .416 accuracy brings it down to a total rating of .75 percent.

Rowrow, the toughest of the group.

He scored a whopping
3
1
1

I know his second prediction looks like it should score higher, but come on, LA is really dry this time of year. It’s too cold for rain!

Of course, looking back in context at the total coastal population of India to be hit by a tsunami, Rowrow’s prediction really isn’t that impressive…. But factoring in what he knew at the time (I know I wouldn’t look up average deaths per tsunami per person on shoreline), he nets a 3, one of the highest scores ever to be given by my predictions.
Total rating? 16.6 percent!

Robobob is a standard case.
1/7 for accuracy
5 for the actual prediction; if he had been a little more careful with the predictions he could have won this by a margin of at least 30%. As it stands, he is under 10% for total rating. My sympathies, Robobob.

Zmann was an obvious prediction, with an accuracy of .5.
.5 percent. A good try, but not enough to pull ahead.

Tim: Three ones, perfect accuracy. 10 percent!

TripleM:
The biggest threat of all! His cricket predictions astound and amaze! Unfortunately, an average of .5 brings his scores way way down.
Going by the objective scale, TripleM is all set to win this, with a whopping 25 percent. However, cricket predictions really aren’t that amazing, as the difference in skill for the individual teams kinda kills the impressiveness; this lowers the average impressiveness of his predictions to an average of 3, or 15 percent. Still the second highest in the running!

Strabo:
He was totally anhialated by his low accuracy. Although his bar prediction came true, even if his average impressiveness score is a 5 on that one prediction he will still only score a measly 10 percent. Nice try, though!

Rabscuttle: A brutal 1/3 accuracy killed him before he even got off the ground; and everyone knows how hard it is to get bandwidth and a good server, but I’m giving his prediction a generous 3, bringing him to 10 percent for total ratings.

Finally, me. My predictions really aren’t that impressive. Frankly, they’re mostly ones.
I’m being really pessimistic here; there’s some room for impressive maneuvering and weaselage but come on, we all knew there wasn’t going to be a terrorist threat to the USA. Except the Republicans; you can all vote me to high heaven ;)
1
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
3
1
2

A killer .785714 accuracy brings my total rating to…. Twelve percent!

So, on absolutely no evidence whatsoever, the current top-5 standings are:

Rowrow
TripleM
Krammer
Fafnir
Joker5

Yeah, I'm pretty much boned. Unless absence of terrorism is really impressive.

Anyone have anything to add?

~joker5

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02-01-2005 at 03:31 AM
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eytanz
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It may seem that my predictions aren't very impressive. Now, it's clear that they were almost entirely certain to come out true. I won't argue with that. What I would like to point out, though, is how absolutely incredibly astoundingly impressive it would have been if I got even a single prediction wrong. Let alone all of them.

So yeah, sure, you can rank my predictions low because it's not very surprising that they came out right. But I say that's unfair. Take Masonjason's prediction that MLK would rise from his grave. That's a pretty impressive prediction. False, but impressive. Should we penalize Masonjason just because it came out false? No, that's what the accuracy score is for. He should get points for it being an amazing prediction, either true or false.

A similar logic applies in my case. My predictions are incredibly impressive if false, not so impressive if true. On the average, however, that's still pretty impressive. Truely fair voting would take that into account.

Um, yeah. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

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02-01-2005 at 03:41 AM
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Schik
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quote:
Take Masonjason's prediction that MLK would rise from his grave. That's a pretty impressive prediction. False, but impressive. Should we penalize Masonjason just because it came out false? No, that's what the accuracy score is for. He should get points for it being an amazing prediction, either true or false.
Except that's not what the rules of the contest say. Each prediction that comes true is individually ranked for impressiveness - it's not like it's per contestant, it's per prediction. So this prediction can't even be voted on. If it had come true, I'm pretty sure it would have gotten straight 10s, even from other contestants.
quote:
A similar logic applies in my case. My predictions are incredibly impressive if false, not so impressive if true. On the average, however, that's still pretty impressive. Truely fair voting would take that into account.
No, yours were astoundingly unimpressive. In fact, your "predictions" make me want to re-do the rating poll to include "0" as a choice.


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02-01-2005 at 03:52 AM
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rowrow
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quote:
joker5 wrote:
I know his second prediction looks like it should score higher, but come on, LA is really dry this time of year.
~joker5

Well it was raining the week before.The whole week before.Or maybe it was 2 weeks beefore? But all I know is that a very short time before that, floods and mudslides. Much rain.

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02-01-2005 at 03:55 AM
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eytanz
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quote:
Schik wrote:
quote:
A similar logic applies in my case. My predictions are incredibly impressive if false, not so impressive if true. On the average, however, that's still pretty impressive. Truely fair voting would take that into account.
No, yours were astoundingly unimpressive. In fact, your "predictions" make me want to re-do the rating poll to include "0" as a choice.



So, in other words, they're impressively inane. Still sounds rather impressive to me.

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02-01-2005 at 04:10 AM
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Schik
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quote:
eytanz wrote:
So, in other words, they're impressively inane. Still sounds rather impressive to me.
Not to me. To quote rule #9:
quote:
Everyone will be asked to rate each prediction on a scale of 1 to 10 by its impressiveness, or in other words, to what extent the successful prediction seems to indicate amazing capabilities of the predictor.
If being able to make inane predictions is an amazing capability, then you're right. But in my opinion, it's not very amazing.


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02-01-2005 at 04:28 AM
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eytanz
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Hmmm... I guess my tactic of being very lazy and then trying to talk people into giving me high scores has been foiled again. :)

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02-01-2005 at 04:30 AM
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joker5
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"Floods and mudslides and much rain" indeed; but doesn't it follow that if all the clouds rained THAT MUCH then there would be that much LESS water in the sky to rain?

~joker5

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02-01-2005 at 05:21 AM
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I'd like to think that my predictions are extremely impressive if you look at them as a barometer of what not to expect. If you look into my broken crystal ball, you'll see that it yields an incredible 83% inaccuracy rating! So everyone shoudl stop listening to me.

On that note, I predict that I am not going to win this contest.

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02-01-2005 at 06:17 AM
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Mattcrampy
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icon Re: Contest analysis (+1)  
I fly under the radar once again. I should go to ninja school.

Also, Bradwall and Zmann didn't have enough predictions to be winners. You need to be more careful, dude!

Matt

[Edited by Mattcrampy at Local Time:02-01-2005 at 07:28 AM]

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02-01-2005 at 07:13 AM
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TripleM
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I should point out that I was a lot luckier to get the correct cricket prediction (Aussie beating the Windies), with another Aussie win that I predicted being rained out and another one them actually losing! Seems to be a bit of a closer competition than expected (though Aussie WERE the favourites.)
02-01-2005 at 08:02 AM
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Tim
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quote:
joker5 wrote:
Finally, me. My predictions really aren’t that impressive. Frankly, they’re mostly ones.
I’m being really pessimistic here; there’s some room for impressive maneuvering and weaselage but come on, we all knew there wasn’t going to be a terrorist threat to the USA. Except the Republicans; you can all vote me to high heaven ;)
1
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
3
1
2

A killer .785714 accuracy brings my total rating to…. Twelve percent!


Well, I think you are way too optimistic. You're giving your own predictions a lot more impressiveness than they deserves. And what do you mean by "mostly ones" anyway?

My entries were lots more complex. But at least, I had "pigs fly" in my prediction, and it came out :lol

-- Tim

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02-01-2005 at 10:14 AM
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joker5
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Yeah, but I'm an optimist at heart and kinda thought Bush would actually realize that 'stay the course' does not mean radical changes once he's reelected.

Besides, they're not CERTAIN certain; CERTAIN is like 'something will be affected by gravity'. Pretty sure is 'There will be rain in X' where X is a city and weather.com says '60% precipitation'. 50/50 chance seems to yield a 5...

Yeah, I missed you, Matt. I'll update when I get the time; I'm really really busy right now. Barely enough time to type this.

~joker5

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02-01-2005 at 07:40 PM
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quote:
ErikH2000 wrote:
What about that prediction about the illustration on the cover of Time Magazine? How was that managed?
I googled for it on their website, and saw a preview of the cover immediately after the prediction was posted, so I didn't think that was all that impressive.

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02-02-2005 at 04:28 AM
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silver
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Your analysis doesn't take into account authors and/or their friends overrating their own/their buddy's impressiveness.



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02-02-2005 at 04:37 AM
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eytanz
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Authors are taken into accounts by the rules, as we must give the highest possible score to our own predictions, therefore making it impossible for us to overrate ourselves (and since every prediction gets exactly 1 10 that way it evens things out, unless someone forgets to rank themselves and then they deserve to lose for not playing by the rules).


[Edited by eytanz at Local Time:02-02-2005 at 04:53 AM]

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02-02-2005 at 04:53 AM
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joker5
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A quick glance at the predictions right now yields
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; his rating is about 20%.

~joker5

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02-02-2005 at 05:03 AM
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eytanz
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There's one thing you're discounting - of all the 100% accuracy players, Tim is the only one who didn't vote for himself yet. So his score is deceptively low. He may yet win.



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02-02-2005 at 05:14 AM
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joker5
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Not really; the truth is that since everyone gets 1 ten all across the board, it really doesn't affect the relative grades.

(premature) Congratulations, krammer, for 3 extremely great predictions. Props to you!

~joker5

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02-02-2005 at 05:38 AM
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eytanz
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Yes, but everyone else's score already includes the 10 as part of the calculation. The score you see for Tim doesn't.

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02-02-2005 at 01:14 PM
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Believe me, a 10 doesn't do much if the rest are all 1's. Assuming 16 votes get cast (there were 16 participants) and 15 of them were 1's. Then the 16th vote will promote you from 15/15 = 10% to 25/16 = 15.6% Nowhere in the way of the 20's.

To tell you the truth, just looking the poll makes me dizzy.
57 polls!

But joker, are you suggesting we should be a bit harsh on krammer or on me? Well, I don't judge like that. (Although in the last compo I had given agaricus lots more points because I knew it was him. But I would never give people less points just because I'm jealous.)

-- Tim

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02-02-2005 at 02:46 PM
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eytanz
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I have all 1s except my own 10s and a few 2s that crept in somehow. You have 2 predictions that aren't doing very well, but one that has scored a 6 - the highest non-self-granted score so far - and a 5. If your other two predictions improve and you vote for yourself, I still maintain you are in the running.

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02-02-2005 at 02:54 PM
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rowrow
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You can't really tell now what will happen. The tables can turn.

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02-02-2005 at 03:03 PM
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eytanz
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Of course we (or at least some of us) can tell what will happen. I mean, the whole point was to show off how well we can predict the future. Anyone who got a 100% score should be able to tell you the result.

And to put my money where my mouth is:

I predict that I will not win this contest.

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02-02-2005 at 03:13 PM
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ErikH2000
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Posting a few links here for convenience. I keep having to look them up again, dammit!

Prediction Tracking (the predictions that are up for vote)
Vote for most impressive predictions (the mammoth poll that stretches on forever)
Predict the Future (contest rules)
contest standings (Schik's magic page showing the latest results)

Useful, eh?

-Erik

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02-02-2005 at 06:54 PM
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Good page. Very good. Thanx Schik. :thumbsup

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02-03-2005 at 12:54 AM
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rowrow
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BTW Erik, are you going to put this contest in this thread soon?

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02-03-2005 at 01:01 AM
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ErikH2000
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quote:
rowrow wrote:
BTW Erik, are you going to put this contest in this thread soon?

Yes, but not until the contest is over. It's all part of my Brutal Efficiency Time Management Plan.

-Erik

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02-03-2005 at 01:10 AM
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Thanks for the contest standings. Hard to believe I might actually place, but I'm not arguing!

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02-03-2005 at 03:37 PM
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Oh, the first two places are so close!

I'm afraid I didn't win either, but it was fun anyway... :)

-- Tim

PS. Congratulations to krammer!

[Edited by Tim at Local Time:02-06-2005 at 09:20 PM]

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02-06-2005 at 08:45 PM
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