I've been going over the predictions again... it looks kinda confusing. I've pretty much got almost everyone's final rating predicted. Except bradwall - it depends on how impressive you think something being released is. I personally think it's pretty cool, but not more than a 6. However, others may disagree and rate it higher.
In any event, on with the breakdown.
First off, Fafnir. Scoring a whopping 80% on some rather risky predictions, this champion's predictions are (rather pessimistically scored) at
2
1
x
1
3
1
1
1
the X is amazingly uncertain; it all depends on whether or not you think Fafnir meant any kind of movement in the earth's crust, any kind of movement in the plates, or something of tsunami-generating proportion. His accuracy rating is .8, so his rating seems to come out to about... 10.666 percent if you're really pessimistic about the tectonics thing and give it a 1, 12 percent if you're a bit more generous.
Next up, DiMono.
This man scored
2
1
1
1
with an accuracy rating of .4. Although he made a good showing, low accuracy brought him down to a brutal .5 percent.
Krammer!
A silent contender... he could be the winner, depending on how the vote swings.
Personally, I'm not surprised by 2 or 3 so I gave them both ones, but number 1 is a stumper. I really don't know much about cricket, which is probably part of the impact of the thing; it's stuff what you don't know. Personally, I usually rate these lowly because I suspect weaselage, but the nice non-round number (and the reasonably bad team) brought this prediction's average up to a 2. So, for 100 percent accuracy, Krammer nets a total of..... 13.333 percent! Could be the winner!
Bradwall... the mystery contestant!
HE scored a .5 accuracy, which would normally be slaughter on the score, but he also predicted a long-awaited release of a fairly major piece of software. Anyway, his score AT A BARE MINIMUM is 10 percent, and if it goes any higher (which it probably will) it'll be a total lockout - no other contestant will stand a chance against his mighty 15+ percent. That is; if he had one more prediction. Tough luck bradwall, if you had had ONE MORE prediction you could have won.
Eytanz: Obvious predictions, total accuracy. 10 percent; nothing more need be said.
MasonJason.
A tricky case, this. e scored a mere .416 on accuracy, but his predictions scored a
1
1
1
1
5. This nets him a .18 on impressiveness, but his .416 accuracy brings it down to a total rating of .75 percent.
Rowrow, the toughest of the group.
He scored a whopping
3
1
1
I know his second prediction looks like it should score higher, but come on, LA is really dry this time of year. It’s too cold for rain!
Of course, looking back in context at the total coastal population of India to be hit by a tsunami, Rowrow’s prediction really isn’t that impressive…. But factoring in what he knew at the time (I know I wouldn’t look up average deaths per tsunami per person on shoreline), he nets a 3, one of the highest scores ever to be given by my predictions.
Total rating? 16.6 percent!
Robobob is a standard case.
1/7 for accuracy
5 for the actual prediction; if he had been a little more careful with the predictions he could have won this by a margin of at least 30%. As it stands, he is under 10% for total rating. My sympathies, Robobob.
Zmann was an obvious prediction, with an accuracy of .5.
.5 percent. A good try, but not enough to pull ahead.
Tim: Three ones, perfect accuracy. 10 percent!
TripleM:
The biggest threat of all! His cricket predictions astound and amaze! Unfortunately, an average of .5 brings his scores way way down.
Going by the objective scale, TripleM is all set to win this, with a whopping 25 percent. However, cricket predictions really aren’t that amazing, as the difference in skill for the individual teams kinda kills the impressiveness; this lowers the average impressiveness of his predictions to an average of 3, or 15 percent. Still the second highest in the running!
Strabo:
He was totally anhialated by his low accuracy. Although his bar prediction came true, even if his average impressiveness score is a 5 on that one prediction he will still only score a measly 10 percent. Nice try, though!
Rabscuttle: A brutal 1/3 accuracy killed him before he even got off the ground; and everyone knows how hard it is to get bandwidth and a good server, but I’m giving his prediction a generous 3, bringing him to 10 percent for total ratings.
Finally, me. My predictions really aren’t that impressive. Frankly, they’re mostly ones.
I’m being really pessimistic here; there’s some room for impressive maneuvering and weaselage but come on, we all knew there wasn’t going to be a terrorist threat to the USA. Except the Republicans; you can all vote me to high heaven
1
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
3
1
2
A killer .785714 accuracy brings my total rating to…. Twelve percent!
So, on absolutely no evidence whatsoever, the current top-5 standings are:
Rowrow
TripleM
Krammer
Fafnir
Joker5
Yeah, I'm pretty much boned. Unless absence of terrorism is really impressive.
Anyone have anything to add?
~joker5
____________________________
Criminals, like other people, dislike being shot. ~FBI study on guns
www.badgerbadgerbadger.com
"
Two words: Beam Waffle!"
-me
