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Caravel Forum : Other Boards : Forum Games : The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (...and TSS Skywatcher congratulations!)
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Dischorran
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quote:
TripleM wrote:
so the Caravel team will be a much more well-oiled machine these days
:lol

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03-01-2013 at 02:06 AM
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west.logan
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I'd thus take the initial prediction, add a few weeks for some unexpected delays.. making the final prediction 1 April 2014.


That's been my hunch as well.

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03-01-2013 at 03:14 AM
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mrimer
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Wow, great analysis!

See, guys? Statistics don't lie.

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03-01-2013 at 09:45 PM
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stigant
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Statistics don't lie.

In the same way that guns don't kill people.

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03-01-2013 at 10:04 PM
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TripleM
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Hey, I don't ever remember the bar message where the logos flick over to the old ones. When did that start? And has anyone figured out how it connects to the number? (Thought maybe it flashed based on the digits but that doesn't seem to be the case..)

edit - oh, that's exactly what it is, I just can't count :)

[Last edited by TripleM at 03-02-2013 09:00 AM]
03-02-2013 at 08:52 AM
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Nuntar
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We're up to 34.5. :yes

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03-03-2013 at 06:15 PM
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navithmastero
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34¾!

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 03-06-2013 07:41 AM]
03-06-2013 at 07:40 AM
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Red-XIII
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35%!

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03-07-2013 at 04:22 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 216 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 7, 2013) to advance by 21.5% (from 13.5% to 35%). At this rate (about 10.0 days per percent, previously about 10.1), it will reach 100% in approximately 653 more days, i.e. on December 20, 2014 (was previously December 29, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 316 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 7, 2013) to advance by 35%. This way (about 9.0 days per percent, previously about 9.1) it will reach 100% in about 587 days, i.e. on October 15, 2014 (was previously October 18, 2014).

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03-07-2013 at 06:05 PM
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TripleM
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And another whole percent - 36!
03-08-2013 at 06:56 AM
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rman
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Woot! Another day, another percent!

It took the Bar 217 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 8, 2013) to advance by 22.5% (from 13.5% to 36%). At this rate (about 9.6 days per percent, previously about 10.0), it will reach 100% in approximately 617 more days, i.e. on November 15, 2014 (was previously December 20, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 317 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 8, 2013) to advance by 36%. This way (about 8.8 days per percent, previously about 9.0) it will reach 100% in about 564 days, i.e. on September 23, 2014 (was previously October 15, 2014).

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03-08-2013 at 10:13 AM
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mrimer
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quote:
TripleM wrote:
And another whole percent - 36!
TFMurphy's been burning the midnight oil. His work deserves more than a percent, but I don't want to throw too many discontinuities into the bar chart. This could permanently disrupt the timeline as we know it.

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03-08-2013 at 11:07 PM
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Dischorran
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And another quarter? Are you aiming for *this* April 1?

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03-09-2013 at 08:45 AM
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Nuntar
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Hmm, seems to be at 36.5 now. Just sayin'. Please don't mod this up, I like being on 729.

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03-10-2013 at 02:11 PM
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Blondbeard
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36,75% now :)
03-11-2013 at 05:09 PM
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hyperme
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37% So much progress!

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03-12-2013 at 04:20 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 221 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 12, 2013) to advance by 23.5% (from 13.5% to 37%). At this rate (about 9.4 days per percent, previously about 9.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 592 more days, i.e. on October 25, 2014 (was previously November 15, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 321 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 12, 2013) to advance by 37%. This way (about 8.7 days per percent, previously about 8.8) it will reach 100% in about 547 days, i.e. on September 10, 2014 (was previously September 23, 2014).

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03-12-2013 at 04:41 PM
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slimm tom
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37 and a quarter percent!
03-12-2013 at 07:21 PM
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navithmastero
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37.5%

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03-13-2013 at 09:12 PM
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navithmastero
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37.75%

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03-14-2013 at 07:01 AM
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17000!


03-14-2013 at 07:35 AM
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navithmastero
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And that's 38%

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03-14-2013 at 08:52 PM
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12th Archivist
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38.25%

Someone has been burning the midnight oil. And afternoon oil and morning oil and evening oil.

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03-15-2013 at 05:40 AM
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rman
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Uh oh, I missed 38%. Well, whatever…

It took the Bar 224 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 15, 2013) to advance by 24.75% (from 13.5% to 38.25%). At this rate (about 9.1 days per percent, previously about 9.4), it will reach 100% in approximately 559 more days, i.e. on September 25, 2014 (was previously October 25, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 324 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 15, 2013) to advance by 38.25%. This way (about 8.5 days per percent, previously about 8.7) it will reach 100% in about 532 days, i.e. on August 29, 2014 (was previously September 10, 2014).

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03-15-2013 at 12:07 PM
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TripleM
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Ignoring the 4 outliers as before, the recent updates have definitely sped up - prediction is currently February 12, 2014.
03-16-2013 at 12:04 AM
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navithmastero
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38.5%

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03-17-2013 at 06:43 AM
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navithmastero
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And 38.75%

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03-18-2013 at 06:31 AM
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Nuntar
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And now we're up to thirty-nine!!

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03-19-2013 at 04:00 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 228 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 19, 2013) to advance by 25.5% (from 13.5% to 39%). At this rate (about 8.9 days per percent, previously about 9.1), it will reach 100% in approximately 545 more days, i.e. on September 15, 2014 (was previously September 25, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 328 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 19, 2013) to advance by 39%. This way (about 8.4 days per percent, previously about 8.5) it will reach 100% in about 513 days, i.e. on August 14, 2014 (was previously August 29, 2014).

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03-19-2013 at 05:21 PM
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navithmastero
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And 39.25%

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03-20-2013 at 04:16 PM
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