Dischorran
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TripleM wrote:
so the Caravel team will be a much more well-oiled machine these days

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west.logan
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TripleM wrote:
I'd thus take the initial prediction, add a few weeks for some unexpected delays.. making the final prediction 1 April 2014.

That's been my hunch as well.

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mrimer
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Wow, great analysis!

See, guys? Statistics don't lie.

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stigant
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Statistics don't lie.

In the same way that guns don't kill people.

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TripleM
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Hey, I don't ever remember the bar message where the logos flick over to the old ones. When did that start? And has anyone figured out how it connects to the number? (Thought maybe it flashed based on the digits but that doesn't seem to be the case..)

edit - oh, that's exactly what it is, I just can't count

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[Last edited by TripleM at 03-02-2013 09:00 AM]

Nuntar
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We're up to 34.5.

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navithmastero
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34¾!

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 03-06-2013 07:41 AM]

Red-XIII
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35%!

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rman
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It took the Bar 216 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 7, 2013) to advance by 21.5% (from 13.5% to 35%). At this rate (about 10.0 days per percent, previously about 10.1), it will reach 100% in approximately 653 more days, i.e. on December 20, 2014 (was previously December 29, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 316 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 7, 2013) to advance by 35%. This way (about 9.0 days per percent, previously about 9.1) it will reach 100% in about 587 days, i.e. on October 15, 2014 (was previously October 18, 2014).

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TripleM
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And another whole percent - 36!

rman
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Woot! Another day, another percent!

It took the Bar 217 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 8, 2013) to advance by 22.5% (from 13.5% to 36%). At this rate (about 9.6 days per percent, previously about 10.0), it will reach 100% in approximately 617 more days, i.e. on November 15, 2014 (was previously December 20, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 317 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 8, 2013) to advance by 36%. This way (about 8.8 days per percent, previously about 9.0) it will reach 100% in about 564 days, i.e. on September 23, 2014 (was previously October 15, 2014).

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mrimer
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TripleM wrote:
And another whole percent - 36!

TFMurphy's been burning the midnight oil. His work deserves more than a percent, but I don't want to throw too many discontinuities into the bar chart. This could permanently disrupt the timeline as we know it.

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Dischorran
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And another quarter? Are you aiming for *this* April 1?

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Nuntar
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Hmm, seems to be at 36.5 now. Just sayin'. Please don't mod this up, I like being on 729.

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Blondbeard
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36,75% now

hyperme
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37% So much progress!

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rman
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It took the Bar 221 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 12, 2013) to advance by 23.5% (from 13.5% to 37%). At this rate (about 9.4 days per percent, previously about 9.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 592 more days, i.e. on October 25, 2014 (was previously November 15, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 321 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 12, 2013) to advance by 37%. This way (about 8.7 days per percent, previously about 8.8) it will reach 100% in about 547 days, i.e. on September 10, 2014 (was previously September 23, 2014).

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slimm tom
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37 and a quarter percent!

navithmastero
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37.5%

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navithmastero
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37.75%

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slimm tom
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File: image.jpg (42.2 KB)
Downloaded 561 times.
License: Public Domain

17000!

navithmastero
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And that's 38%

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12th Archivist
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38.25%

Someone has been burning the midnight oil. And afternoon oil and morning oil and evening oil.

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rman
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Uh oh, I missed 38%. Well, whatever…

It took the Bar 224 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 15, 2013) to advance by 24.75% (from 13.5% to 38.25%). At this rate (about 9.1 days per percent, previously about 9.4), it will reach 100% in approximately 559 more days, i.e. on September 25, 2014 (was previously October 25, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 324 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 15, 2013) to advance by 38.25%. This way (about 8.5 days per percent, previously about 8.7) it will reach 100% in about 532 days, i.e. on August 29, 2014 (was previously September 10, 2014).

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TripleM
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Ignoring the 4 outliers as before, the recent updates have definitely sped up - prediction is currently February 12, 2014.

navithmastero
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38.5%

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navithmastero
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And 38.75%

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Nuntar
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And now we're up to thirty-nine!!

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rman
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It took the Bar 228 days (from August 3, 2012 to March 19, 2013) to advance by 25.5% (from 13.5% to 39%). At this rate (about 8.9 days per percent, previously about 9.1), it will reach 100% in approximately 545 more days, i.e. on September 15, 2014 (was previously September 25, 2014).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 328 days (from April 25, 2012 to March 19, 2013) to advance by 39%. This way (about 8.4 days per percent, previously about 8.5) it will reach 100% in about 513 days, i.e. on August 14, 2014 (was previously August 29, 2014).

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navithmastero
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And 39.25%

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