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PMIT
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Alas, Act 15000 was too fleeting to document with a picture, so I decided to report it here.

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02-14-2013 at 03:55 AM
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Someone Else
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Yeah, something that wouldn't really be a problem if the x axis wasn't time.
02-14-2013 at 05:10 AM
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Nuntar
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Thirty and a half! :D

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02-15-2013 at 01:34 AM
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The Architest
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Se on nyt 30.75%, ystäväni! :)
02-16-2013 at 04:41 PM
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Blondbeard
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
This rapid progress makes me confused. I thought me and the bar would grow old together...

Not that I'm complaining
02-16-2013 at 09:38 PM
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mrimer
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+2)  
quote:
This rapid progress makes me confused. I thought me and the bar would grow old together...
There are no beginnings or endings to the bar. But there will be an ending.

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Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
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[Last edited by mrimer at 02-17-2013 06:59 AM]
02-17-2013 at 06:57 AM
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mrimer
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
quote:
Someone Else wrote:
Yeah, something that wouldn't really be a problem if the x axis wasn't time.
It seems like we're talking about some kind of temporal distortion here. Considering we're talking about TSS, in this instance I don't see a problem.

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Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
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And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

[Last edited by mrimer at 02-17-2013 06:59 AM]
02-17-2013 at 06:59 AM
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Red-XIII
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And 31%, Nice!

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02-18-2013 at 10:01 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 200 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 19, 2013) to advance by 17.5% (from 13.5% to 31%). At this rate (about 11.4 days per percent, previously about 11.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 789 more days, i.e. on April 19, 2015 (was previously May 7, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 300 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 19, 2013) to advance by 31%. This way (about 9.7 days per percent, previously about 9.7) it will reach 100% in about 668 days, i.e. on December 19, 2014 (was previously December 24, 2014).

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02-19-2013 at 09:47 AM
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The Architest
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quote:
Red-XIII wrote:
And 31,5%, Nice!

Fix'd.
02-19-2013 at 04:24 PM
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robin
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quote:
The Architest wrote:
quote:
Red-XIII wrote:
And 32%, Nice!

Fix'd.


you're saying :P

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02-20-2013 at 01:59 PM
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Red-XIII
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
It looks like the bar is making fun of us, but I like it :D

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02-20-2013 at 02:16 PM
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rman
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Well, it’s going pretty fast.

It took the Bar 201 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 20, 2013) to advance by 18.5% (from 13.5% to 32%). At this rate (about 10.9 days per percent, previously about 11.4), it will reach 100% in approximately 739 more days, i.e. on March 1, 2015 (was previously April 19, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 301 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 20, 2013) to advance by 32%. This way (about 9.4 days per percent, previously about 9.7) it will reach 100% in about 640 days, i.e. on November 22, 2014 (was previously December 19, 2014).

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02-20-2013 at 05:49 PM
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west.logan
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I predict that by May 1, 2013, both methods of rman's predictions will show about the same, predicting a completion date of September 2014.

:D

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02-20-2013 at 05:54 PM
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hyperme
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32.25%

Extra-speedy at the moment. Maybe they finished the new tarstuff! :P

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02-21-2013 at 04:52 PM
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Someone Else
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quote:
hyperme wrote:
Extra-speedy at the moment. Maybe they finished the new tarstuffs! :P

Fixed that for you. ;)

[Last edited by Someone Else at 02-21-2013 09:46 PM]
02-21-2013 at 09:45 PM
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Nuntar
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Thirteen-fortieths. Which is almost one third! :D :thumbsup

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02-23-2013 at 04:20 PM
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hyperme
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32.75%! Something is progressing nicely.

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02-24-2013 at 02:36 PM
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navithmastero
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And 33%!

-nm

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02-25-2013 at 12:53 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 206 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 25, 2013) to advance by 19.5% (from 13.5% to 33%). At this rate (about 10.6 days per percent, previously about 10.9), it will reach 100% in approximately 708 more days, i.e. on February 3, 2015 (was previously March 1, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 306 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 25, 2013) to advance by 33%. This way (about 9.3 days per percent, previously about 9.4) it will reach 100% in about 621 days, i.e. on November 8, 2014 (was previously November 22, 2014).

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02-25-2013 at 05:01 PM
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navithmastero
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33¼!

-nm

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 02-26-2013 05:05 PM]
02-26-2013 at 05:05 PM
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The Architest
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Can bar take all this progress?
02-26-2013 at 05:44 PM
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mrimer
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She cannae take much more o' this!

Nah, she can. :)

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Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.
02-26-2013 at 09:21 PM
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Red-XIII
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And now we are over 1/3 , awesome!

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02-26-2013 at 10:22 PM
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Tahnan
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quote:
The Architest wrote:
Can bar take all this progress?


Of course. It's the best...

:glasses

...bar none.
02-27-2013 at 01:23 AM
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rman
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It took the Bar 208 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 27, 2013) to advance by 20.5% (from 13.5% to 34%). At this rate (about 10.1 days per percent, previously about 10.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 670 more days, i.e. on December 29, 2014 (was previously February 3, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 308 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 27, 2013) to advance by 34%. This way (about 9.1 days per percent, previously about 9.3) it will reach 100% in about 598 days, i.e. on October 18, 2014 (was previously November 8, 2014).

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02-27-2013 at 09:37 AM
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mrimer
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Ooh! Both predictions are in the same year now. It's a good thing statistics can be relied on.

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Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.
02-27-2013 at 10:55 PM
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slimm tom
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quote:
mrimer wrote:
Ooh! Both predictions are in the same year now. It's a good thing statistics can be relied on.

Any chance on pushing that back to 2013? ;)
02-27-2013 at 11:19 PM
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The spitemaster
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34.25%

Yes, First time.

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02-28-2013 at 02:10 AM
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TripleM
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+6)  
Current progress, measured by the time each percentage change was reported:



The first four points don't fit the trend at all, so we don't want to be measuring any linear trends from there. The rest of the graph looks pretty close to linear.

If we get rid of those 4 points and calculate a line of best fit through the rest, we get a trend of about 1.24% per week, which results in a prediction of 11 March 2014.

On the other hand, have a look at the graph for TCB:



This bar didn't start until 42%, but it shows there were two completely separate trends - once we hit 73% the project clearly moved into a separate phase, which took a lot longer than expected. Using two linear trends for these two portions, it rose rapidly at 2.22% per week up until about 73%, and then dropped off massively to only 0.47% per week to completion.

If this bar drops off to 0.47% at the same point, the prediction would be 15 November 2014

On the OTHER other hand, TCB was a pretty major step up from earlier projects, so the Caravel team will be a much more well-oiled machine these days, plus Mike's percentages will surely be taking earlier projects into account.

I'd thus take the initial prediction, add a few weeks for some unexpected delays.. making the final prediction 1 April 2014.

[Last edited by TripleM at 03-01-2013 12:40 AM]
03-01-2013 at 12:39 AM
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