PMIT
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 159
Registered: 02-08-2010
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Alas, Act 15000 was too fleeting to document with a picture, so I decided to report it here.

____________________________
aka VioletPumpkin

Someone Else
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2340
Registered: 06-14-2005
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Yeah, something that wouldn't really be a problem if the x axis wasn't time.

Nuntar
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 4756
Registered: 02-20-2007
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Thirty and a half!

____________________________
50th Skywatcher

The Architest
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 255
Registered: 05-25-2008
IP: Logged

Se on nyt 30.75%, ystäväni!

Blondbeard
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1486
Registered: 03-31-2005
IP: Logged

This rapid progress makes me confused. I thought me and the bar would grow old together...

Not that I'm complaining

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

This rapid progress makes me confused. I thought me and the bar would grow old together...

There are no beginnings or endings to the bar. But there will be an ending.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

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[Last edited by mrimer at 02-17-2013 06:59 AM]

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Someone Else wrote:
Yeah, something that wouldn't really be a problem if the x axis wasn't time.

It seems like we're talking about some kind of temporal distortion here. Considering we're talking about TSS, in this instance I don't see a problem.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

---

[Last edited by mrimer at 02-17-2013 06:59 AM]

Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 651
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged

And 31%, Nice!

____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay.
There's just this one, just this rock.
-33th Skywatcher

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It took the Bar 200 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 19, 2013) to advance by 17.5% (from 13.5% to 31%). At this rate (about 11.4 days per percent, previously about 11.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 789 more days, i.e. on April 19, 2015 (was previously May 7, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 300 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 19, 2013) to advance by 31%. This way (about 9.7 days per percent, previously about 9.7) it will reach 100% in about 668 days, i.e. on December 19, 2014 (was previously December 24, 2014).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

The Architest
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 255
Registered: 05-25-2008
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Red-XIII wrote:
And 31,5%, Nice!

Fix'd.

robin
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 845
Registered: 09-01-2004
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The Architest wrote:

Red-XIII wrote:
And 32%, Nice!

Fix'd.

you're saying

____________________________

Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 651
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged

It looks like the bar is making fun of us, but I like it

____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay.
There's just this one, just this rock.
-33th Skywatcher

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

Well, it’s going pretty fast.

It took the Bar 201 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 20, 2013) to advance by 18.5% (from 13.5% to 32%). At this rate (about 10.9 days per percent, previously about 11.4), it will reach 100% in approximately 739 more days, i.e. on March 1, 2015 (was previously April 19, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 301 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 20, 2013) to advance by 32%. This way (about 9.4 days per percent, previously about 9.7) it will reach 100% in about 640 days, i.e. on November 22, 2014 (was previously December 19, 2014).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

west.logan
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 608
Registered: 03-09-2011
IP: Logged

I predict that by May 1, 2013, both methods of rman's predictions will show about the same, predicting a completion date of September 2014.



____________________________
-Logan

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1173
Registered: 06-23-2006
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32.25%

Extra-speedy at the moment. Maybe they finished the new tarstuff!

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

Someone Else
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2340
Registered: 06-14-2005
IP: Logged

hyperme wrote:
Extra-speedy at the moment. Maybe they finished the new tarstuffs!

Fixed that for you.

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[Last edited by Someone Else at 02-21-2013 09:46 PM]

Nuntar
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 4756
Registered: 02-20-2007
IP: Logged

Thirteen-fortieths. Which is almost one third!

____________________________
50th Skywatcher

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1173
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged

32.75%! Something is progressing nicely.

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

navithmastero
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 621
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged

And 33%!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

One of your local HAs.

My stuff:

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It took the Bar 206 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 25, 2013) to advance by 19.5% (from 13.5% to 33%). At this rate (about 10.6 days per percent, previously about 10.9), it will reach 100% in approximately 708 more days, i.e. on February 3, 2015 (was previously March 1, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 306 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 25, 2013) to advance by 33%. This way (about 9.3 days per percent, previously about 9.4) it will reach 100% in about 621 days, i.e. on November 8, 2014 (was previously November 22, 2014).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

navithmastero
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 621
Registered: 01-03-2012
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33¼!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

One of your local HAs.

My stuff:

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 02-26-2013 05:05 PM]

The Architest
Level: Master Delver

Rank Points: 255
Registered: 05-25-2008
IP: Logged

Can bar take all this progress?

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

She cannae take much more o' this!

Nah, she can.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 651
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged

And now we are over 1/3 , awesome!

____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay.
There's just this one, just this rock.
-33th Skywatcher

Tahnan
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 2460
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The Architest wrote:
Can bar take all this progress?

Of course. It's the best...



...bar none.

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It took the Bar 208 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 27, 2013) to advance by 20.5% (from 13.5% to 34%). At this rate (about 10.1 days per percent, previously about 10.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 670 more days, i.e. on December 29, 2014 (was previously February 3, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 308 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 27, 2013) to advance by 34%. This way (about 9.1 days per percent, previously about 9.3) it will reach 100% in about 598 days, i.e. on October 18, 2014 (was previously November 8, 2014).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5141
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Ooh! Both predictions are in the same year now. It's a good thing statistics can be relied on.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

slimm tom
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1240
Registered: 10-14-2006
IP: Logged

mrimer wrote:
Ooh! Both predictions are in the same year now. It's a good thing statistics can be relied on.

Any chance on pushing that back to 2013?

The spitemaster
Level: Smiter
Rank Points: 354
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34.25%

Yes, First time.

____________________________
Last night upon a stair
I met a man that wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish that man would stay away

TripleM
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1377
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File: tss.png (8.4 KB)
Downloaded 1056 times.
License: Public Domain

Current progress, measured by the time each percentage change was reported:



The first four points don't fit the trend at all, so we don't want to be measuring any linear trends from there. The rest of the graph looks pretty close to linear.

If we get rid of those 4 points and calculate a line of best fit through the rest, we get a trend of about 1.24% per week, which results in a prediction of 11 March 2014.

On the other hand, have a look at the graph for TCB:



This bar didn't start until 42%, but it shows there were two completely separate trends - once we hit 73% the project clearly moved into a separate phase, which took a lot longer than expected. Using two linear trends for these two portions, it rose rapidly at 2.22% per week up until about 73%, and then dropped off massively to only 0.47% per week to completion.

If this bar drops off to 0.47% at the same point, the prediction would be 15 November 2014

On the OTHER other hand, TCB was a pretty major step up from earlier projects, so the Caravel team will be a much more well-oiled machine these days, plus Mike's percentages will surely be taking earlier projects into account.

I'd thus take the initial prediction, add a few weeks for some unexpected delays.. making the final prediction 1 April 2014.

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[Last edited by TripleM at 03-01-2013 12:40 AM]