west.logan
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File: Bar Movement.xls (50 KB)
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Schik wrote:
Love it, but I think you need a couple more degrees on that polynomial

Tried that, Excel then sees it as a downward trend (decreasing percentage back towards zero). I didn't want progress on the game to go backwards so I kindly refrained from posting.

Edit: Here's the Excel file if anyone wants to play with it. I'm no expert.

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[Last edited by west.logan at 01-30-2013 03:10 PM]

Lucky Luc
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File: 9degreepoly.PNG (19.4 KB)
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Here's a 9-degree polynomial trend. Good news: The game will be released in about two weeks. Also, it had already been released for about two and a half months last year. A shame I missed that

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[Last edited by Lucky Luc at 01-30-2013 03:38 PM]

Dischorran
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Let's just hope it's not really as sigmoidal as it looks right now.

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DyRsOfDh14
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I think it's pretty obvious it will be finished by April 1st, 2015

navithmastero
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Vingt-huit!

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 01-31-2013 07:43 AM]

rman
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Twenty-eight percent!

With all those graphs and polynomial approximations and stuff, I don’t think anyone wants another one of my way-too-simple linear predictions?

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Red-XIII
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rman wrote:
Twenty-eight percent!

With all those graphs and polynomial approximations and stuff, I don’t think anyone wants another one of my way-too-simple linear predictions?

Actually I do I love math but the statistic part is definitely not my favourite, so I always prefer linear approximations and who does it better than you?

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rman
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Very well

It took the Bar 181 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 31, 2013) to advance by 14.5% (from 13.5% to 28%). At this rate (about 12.5 days per percent, previously about 13.3), it will reach 100% in approximately 899 more days, i.e. on July 19, 2015 (was previously September 24, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 281 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 31, 2013) to advance by 28%. This way (about 10.0 days per percent, previously about 10.3) it will reach 100% in about 723 days, i.e. on January 24, 2015 (was previously February 22, 2015).

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[Last edited by rman at 02-06-2013 12:11 PM]

Pearls
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Red-XIII wrote:


Actually I do I love math but the statistic part is definitely not my favourite, so I always prefer linear approximations and who does it better than you?

Uh huh.

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Red-XIII
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Pearls wrote:

Red-XIII wrote:


Actually I do I love math but the statistic part is definitely not my favourite, so I always prefer linear approximations and who does it better than you?

Uh huh.

I can see your point I should explain better

Off Topic:

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Pearls
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I'm just giving you a hard time. Incidentally, statistics is my precise area of study, and the essence of my job so I get all prickly for no good reason.

Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general

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mrimer
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Pearls wrote:
Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general

But, but...you're just one data point, so how can you generalize?

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Pearls
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mrimer wrote:

Pearls wrote:
Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general

But, but...you're just one data point, so how can you generalize?

The data points are a random sample of points in time, uniformly distributed across the span of my life...provided we have a working definition of prickly

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hyperme
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Pearls wrote:

mrimer wrote:

Pearls wrote:
Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general

But, but...you're just one data point, so how can you generalize?

The data points are a random sample of points in time, uniformly distributed across the span of my life...provided we have a working definition of prickly

Covered in prickles?

News just in: Could Pearls secretly be a hedgehog?

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navithmastero
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hyperme wrote:
News just in: Could Pearls secretly be a hedgehog?

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navithmastero
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Ventinove!

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rman
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It took the Bar 187 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 6, 2013) to advance by 15.5% (from 13.5% to 29%). At this rate (about 12.1 days per percent, previously about 12.5), it will reach 100% in approximately 857 more days, i.e. on June 13, 2015 (was previously July 19, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 287 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 6, 2013) to advance by 29%. This way (about 9.9 days per percent, previously about 10.0) it will reach 100% in about 703 days, i.e. on January 10, 2015 (was previously January 24, 2015).

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navithmastero
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Ventinove e mezzo!

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Red-XIII
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navithmastero wrote:
Ventinove e mezzo!

-nm

Perché in italiano? xD Why in italian?

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navithmastero
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Red-XIII wrote:

navithmastero wrote:
Ventinove e mezzo!

-nm

Perché in italiano? xD Why in italian?

I'm just going through some languages (at the, moment romance languages*) and since we were still on 29, I just decided to post in Italian again.

-nm


*although admittedly, German isn't romance.

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[Last edited by navithmastero at 02-06-2013 09:15 PM]

mrimer
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Why not? Whoever notices the bar change first can post in whatever language they want.

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12th Archivist
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German is not a romance language, no. But the phrase "Dich liebe ich" puts the person being loved first in the sentence, and that sounds pretty romantic to me.

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navithmastero
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Treinta!

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rman
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It took the Bar 192 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 11, 2013) to advance by 16.5% (from 13.5% to 30%). At this rate (about 11.6 days per percent, previously about 12.1), it will reach 100% in approximately 815 more days, i.e. on May 7, 2015 (was previously June 13, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 292 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 11, 2013) to advance by 30%. This way (about 9.7 days per percent, previously about 9.9) it will reach 100% in about 681 days, i.e. on December 24, 2014 (was previously January 10, 2015).

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mrimer
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All right! We've arguably moved up a year on our release date.

I'm hoping we can release in 2014.

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Jeff_Ray...
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Ah, a big ol', round ol' 30%!

Makes me feel so happy and full of joy...

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Thirty and a quarter. Not so round, but it is square

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[Last edited by Nuntar at 02-13-2013 07:19 PM]

west.logan
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File: lines.PNG (36.6 KB)
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I was curious so here's some stats:

Since the project began on April 25th, 2012, the bar has changed about 1/10th of a percent per day.

Or to look at it another way, I've plotted out the rate of change in percentages over the period of days between updates, as shown here, percent per days in interval basically:



Clearly the bar progresses at an erratic rate rather than a steady rate.

For these stats, the mean percentage change per period between updates, is 0.2 percent per day.
the median is 0.13 percent per day,
And the mode is 0.125 percent per day.

Edit: The lines on the graph are just to make it easier to see the erratic nature. This could possibly be a symbolic representation of Caravel's heartbeat.

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[Last edited by west.logan at 02-13-2013 07:41 PM]

Someone Else
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File: Suspicious Graph.png (2.3 KB)
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I am somewhat suspicious of your dubious graph.

west.logan
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Eh? Something I'm missing? Could you explain?

Edit: Perhaps you're referring to it failing the vertical test, something I don't care about since it's not a function, I'm just making it easier to see the progression.

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[Last edited by west.logan at 02-13-2013 09:28 PM]