Announcement: Be excellent to each other.


Caravel Forum : Other Boards : Forum Games : The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (...and TSS Skywatcher congratulations!)
1234
Page 5 of 40
6789>>
New Topic New Poll Post Reply
Poster Message
west.logan
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 585
Registered: 03-09-2011
IP: Logged

File: Bar Movement.xls (50 KB)
Downloaded 4 times.
License: Public Domain
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
Schik wrote:
Love it, but I think you need a couple more degrees on that polynomial ;)


Tried that, Excel then sees it as a downward trend (decreasing percentage back towards zero). I didn't want progress on the game to go backwards so I kindly refrained from posting.

Edit: Here's the Excel file if anyone wants to play with it. I'm no expert.

____________________________
-Logan

[Last edited by west.logan at 01-30-2013 03:10 PM]
01-30-2013 at 03:09 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
Lucky Luc
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 1096
Registered: 08-19-2012
IP: Logged

File: 9degreepoly.PNG (19.4 KB)
Downloaded 882 times.
License: Public Domain
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Here's a 9-degree polynomial trend. Good news: The game will be released in about two weeks. Also, it had already been released for about two and a half months last year. A shame I missed that :?
Click here to view the secret text


[Last edited by Lucky Luc at 01-30-2013 03:38 PM]
01-30-2013 at 03:37 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
Dischorran
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 2024
Registered: 09-10-2005
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Let's just hope it's not really as sigmoidal as it looks right now.

____________________________
Click here to view the secret text

01-31-2013 at 02:29 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
DyRsOfDh14
Level: Delver
Avatar
Rank Points: 44
Registered: 12-01-2007
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
I think it's pretty obvious it will be finished by April 1st, 2015
01-31-2013 at 05:54 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Visit Homepage Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
navithmastero
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 334
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Vingt-huit!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

My stuff:
Click here to view the secret text


[Last edited by navithmastero at 01-31-2013 07:43 AM]
01-31-2013 at 07:41 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
rman
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Twenty-eight percent!

With all those graphs and polynomial approximations and stuff, I donít think anyone wants another one of my way-too-simple linear predictions?

____________________________
Click here to view the secret text

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):
Click here to view the secret text

01-31-2013 at 11:46 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores Quote Reply
Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 562
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
rman wrote:
Twenty-eight percent!

With all those graphs and polynomial approximations and stuff, I donít think anyone wants another one of my way-too-simple linear predictions?


Actually I do :) I love math but the statistic part is definitely not my favourite, so I always prefer linear approximations and who does it better than you?

____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay. There's just this one, just this rock
-33th Skywatcher
01-31-2013 at 11:53 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
rman
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Very well :)

It took the Bar 181 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 31, 2013) to advance by 14.5% (from 13.5% to 28%). At this rate (about 12.5 days per percent, previously about 13.3), it will reach 100% in approximately 899 more days, i.e. on July 19, 2015 (was previously September 24, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 281 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 31, 2013) to advance by 28%. This way (about 10.0 days per percent, previously about 10.3) it will reach 100% in about 723 days, i.e. on January 24, 2015 (was previously February 22, 2015).

____________________________
Click here to view the secret text

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):
Click here to view the secret text


[Last edited by rman at 02-06-2013 12:11 PM]
01-31-2013 at 12:49 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores Quote Reply
Pearls
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 743
Registered: 12-21-2009
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
quote:
Red-XIII wrote:


Actually I do :) I love math but the statistic part is definitely not my favourite, so I always prefer linear approximations and who does it better than you?



Uh huh.

____________________________
Hey, w-wait, that's the guy who shamelessly promotes his own...

Click here to view the secret text

01-31-2013 at 03:32 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 562
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
Pearls wrote:
quote:
Red-XIII wrote:


Actually I do :) I love math but the statistic part is definitely not my favourite, so I always prefer linear approximations and who does it better than you?



Uh huh.


I can see your point I should explain better :)
Click here to view the secret text

Off Topic:
Click here to view the secret text


____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay. There's just this one, just this rock
-33th Skywatcher
01-31-2013 at 05:26 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
Pearls
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 743
Registered: 12-21-2009
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
I'm just giving you a hard time. Incidentally, statistics is my precise area of study, and the essence of my job so I get all prickly for no good reason.

Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general :)

____________________________
Hey, w-wait, that's the guy who shamelessly promotes his own...

Click here to view the secret text

01-31-2013 at 10:49 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 4458
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
quote:
Pearls wrote:
Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general :)
But, but...you're just one data point, so how can you generalize? :D

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.
02-01-2013 at 02:20 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
Pearls
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 743
Registered: 12-21-2009
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
mrimer wrote:
quote:
Pearls wrote:
Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general :)
But, but...you're just one data point, so how can you generalize? :D



The data points are a random sample of points in time, uniformly distributed across the span of my life...provided we have a working definition of prickly :lol

____________________________
Hey, w-wait, that's the guy who shamelessly promotes his own...

Click here to view the secret text

02-01-2013 at 04:17 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
hyperme
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 548
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
Pearls wrote:
quote:
mrimer wrote:
quote:
Pearls wrote:
Then again, I'm just a prickly person in general :)
But, but...you're just one data point, so how can you generalize? :D



The data points are a random sample of points in time, uniformly distributed across the span of my life...provided we have a working definition of prickly :lol


Covered in prickles?

News just in: Could Pearls secretly be a hedgehog?

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?
02-01-2013 at 05:58 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
navithmastero
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 334
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+2)  
quote:
hyperme wrote:
News just in: Could Pearls secretly be a hedgehog?


Click here to view the secret text


-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

My stuff:
Click here to view the secret text

02-01-2013 at 09:55 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
navithmastero
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 334
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Ventinove!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

My stuff:
Click here to view the secret text

02-06-2013 at 07:36 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
rman
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
It took the Bar 187 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 6, 2013) to advance by 15.5% (from 13.5% to 29%). At this rate (about 12.1 days per percent, previously about 12.5), it will reach 100% in approximately 857 more days, i.e. on June 13, 2015 (was previously July 19, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 287 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 6, 2013) to advance by 29%. This way (about 9.9 days per percent, previously about 10.0) it will reach 100% in about 703 days, i.e. on January 10, 2015 (was previously January 24, 2015).

____________________________
Click here to view the secret text

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):
Click here to view the secret text

02-06-2013 at 12:13 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores Quote Reply
navithmastero
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 334
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Ventinove e mezzo!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

My stuff:
Click here to view the secret text

02-06-2013 at 04:22 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 562
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
navithmastero wrote:
Ventinove e mezzo!

-nm


Perchť in italiano? xD Why in italian?

____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay. There's just this one, just this rock
-33th Skywatcher
02-06-2013 at 04:54 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
navithmastero
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 334
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
quote:
Red-XIII wrote:
quote:
navithmastero wrote:
Ventinove e mezzo!

-nm


Perchť in italiano? xD Why in italian?


I'm just going through some languages (at the, moment romance languages*) and since we were still on 29, I just decided to post in Italian again. :)

-nm


*although admittedly, German isn't romance.

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

My stuff:
Click here to view the secret text


[Last edited by navithmastero at 02-06-2013 09:15 PM]
02-06-2013 at 09:13 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 4458
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Why not? Whoever notices the bar change first can post in whatever language they want.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.
02-06-2013 at 10:26 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
12th Archivist
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 790
Registered: 12-07-2008
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
German is not a romance language, no. But the phrase "Dich liebe ich" puts the person being loved first in the sentence, and that sounds pretty romantic to me.

____________________________
It was going well until it exploded.
~Scott Manley

Check out the DROD Wikia project here!
02-07-2013 at 04:26 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
navithmastero
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 334
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Treinta!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

My stuff:
Click here to view the secret text

02-11-2013 at 04:37 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
rman
Level: Smiter
Avatar
Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
It took the Bar 192 days (from August 3, 2012 to February 11, 2013) to advance by 16.5% (from 13.5% to 30%). At this rate (about 11.6 days per percent, previously about 12.1), it will reach 100% in approximately 815 more days, i.e. on May 7, 2015 (was previously June 13, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 292 days (from April 25, 2012 to February 11, 2013) to advance by 30%. This way (about 9.7 days per percent, previously about 9.9) it will reach 100% in about 681 days, i.e. on December 24, 2014 (was previously January 10, 2015).

____________________________
Click here to view the secret text

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):
Click here to view the secret text

02-11-2013 at 05:27 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores Quote Reply
mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 4458
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
All right! We've arguably moved up a year on our release date. :P

I'm hoping we can release in 2014.

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.
02-11-2013 at 06:33 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
Jeff_Ray...
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 911
Registered: 05-16-2005
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Ah, a big ol', round ol' 30%!

Makes me feel so happy and full of joy... :D

____________________________
I make Let's Plays too!
Click here to find out my LPs' progress, and find out what I plan to tackle next!

Currently playing:
Click here to view the secret text


My Holds:
-Completed:
Click here to view the secret text

-Work in Progress:
Click here to view the secret text

02-12-2013 at 04:33 AM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
Nuntar
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 3634
Registered: 02-20-2007
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
Thirty and a quarter. Not so round, but it is square :D

____________________________
50th Skywatcher

[Last edited by Nuntar at 02-13-2013 07:19 PM]
02-13-2013 at 07:13 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
west.logan
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 585
Registered: 03-09-2011
IP: Logged

File: lines.PNG (36.6 KB)
Downloaded 167 times.
License: Public Domain
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+2)  
I was curious so here's some stats:

Since the project began on April 25th, 2012, the bar has changed about 1/10th of a percent per day.

Or to look at it another way, I've plotted out the rate of change in percentages over the period of days between updates, as shown here, percent per days in interval basically:

Click here to view the secret text


Clearly the bar progresses at an erratic rate rather than a steady rate.

For these stats, the mean percentage change per period between updates, is 0.2 percent per day.
the median is 0.13 percent per day,
And the mode is 0.125 percent per day.

Edit: The lines on the graph are just to make it easier to see the erratic nature. This could possibly be a symbolic representation of Caravel's heartbeat.

____________________________
-Logan

[Last edited by west.logan at 02-13-2013 07:41 PM]
02-13-2013 at 07:38 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
Someone Else
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 1175
Registered: 06-14-2005
IP: Logged

File: Suspicious Graph.png (2.3 KB)
Downloaded 151 times.
License: Public Domain
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+2)  
I am somewhat suspicious of your dubious graph.
Click here to view the secret text

02-13-2013 at 08:51 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts High Scores This architect's holds Quote Reply
west.logan
Level: Smitemaster
Avatar
Rank Points: 585
Registered: 03-09-2011
IP: Logged
icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Eh? Something I'm missing? Could you explain?

Edit: Perhaps you're referring to it failing the vertical test, something I don't care about since it's not a function, I'm just making it easier to see the progression.

____________________________
-Logan

[Last edited by west.logan at 02-13-2013 09:28 PM]
02-13-2013 at 08:55 PM
View Profile Send Private Message to User Send Email to User Show all user's posts This architect's holds Quote Reply
1234
Page 5 of 40
6789>>
New Topic New Poll Post Reply
Caravel Forum : Other Boards : Forum Games : The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (...and TSS Skywatcher congratulations!)
Surf To:


Forum Rules:
Can I post a new topic? No
Can I reply? No
Can I read? Yes
HTML Enabled? No
UBBC Enabled? Yes
Words Filter Enable? No

Contact Us | CaravelGames.com

Powered by: tForum tForumHacks Edition b0.98.8
Originally created by Toan Huynh (Copyright © 2000)
Enhanced by the tForumHacks team and the Caravel team.