RoboBob3000
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1978
Registered: 10-23-2003
IP: Logged

Well, that 24% is definitely new, methinks.

____________________________
http://beepsandbloops.wordpress.com/

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It took the Bar 154 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 4, 2013) to advance by 10.5% (from 13.5% to 24%). At this rate (about 14.7 days per percent, previously about 15.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 1115 more days, i.e. on January 24, 2016 (was previously April 12, 2016).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 254 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 4, 2013) to advance by 24%. This way (about 10.6 days per percent, previously about 10.8) it will reach 100% in about 804 days, i.e. on March 19, 2015 (was previously April 8, 2015).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

Someone Else
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1300
Registered: 06-14-2005
IP: Logged

File: BarGraph1.png (12.6 KB)
Downloaded 886 times.
License: Public Domain

I did a graph of rman's excellent analysis, calculating some of the values from 0% myself. It looks like this:

---

[Last edited by Someone Else at 01-04-2013 06:43 PM]

Someone Else
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1300
Registered: 06-14-2005
IP: Logged

File: BarGraph2.png (20.6 KB)
Downloaded 887 times.
License: Public Domain

We can see that there are some obvious outliers, namely the first two data points. Eliminating those and adding lines of best fit (and adjusting to get the total number of days the bar will not be at 100%), we get:

Solving for 100%, we find that the bar will exist somewhere between 25 days and -1367 days.

Conclusion:
The bar is actually at 100%, and has been for some time. You people are all crazy.

EDIT: I can't seem to get 2 pictures in the same post :/

---

[Last edited by Someone Else at 01-04-2013 06:44 PM]

Moo
Level: Master Delver
Rank Points: 224
Registered: 10-14-2006
IP: Logged

How about graphing percentage vs days since start? That should show the trend without depending on rman's analysis (so can include other peoples posted %s).
Edit: I did it, and it doesn't look very interesting... But using a linear approximation(ignoring the first 3 values before it got recorded regularly) I calculate the bar should reach 100% on March 7 2014, which is a bit sooner than other estimates have been...

---

[Last edited by Moo at 01-04-2013 08:50 PM]

Trickster
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 662
Registered: 07-03-2007
IP: Logged

I can't get the snake game to work.

Is this the only game the new bar has had so far? Under Chrome with everything up-to-date, the game does not seem to respond to any of the keyboard or mouse commands I try.

____________________________
Trickster

Official Hold Progress
Favorite Unofficial Holds (I need to play more!)
My Holds

---

[Last edited by Trickster at 01-11-2013 03:17 AM]

Schik
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5381
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

It is the only game in the bar thus far.

Does it even start when you press space? Or does the snake simply not turn when you press q or w?

There's no funky tech being used, just javascript. I guess I'd look at what plugins you have in chrome. Can't think of any other reason it wouldn't work, it works fine for me in a standard current install of chrome.

____________________________
The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way it treats its animals.
--Mahatma Gandhi

Trickster
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 662
Registered: 07-03-2007
IP: Logged

Schik wrote:
It is the only game in the bar thus far.

Does it even start when you press space? Or does the snake simply not turn when you press q or w?

Aha! That's it.

You'd think 'q' and 'w' would make sense to a DROD player, but... I use Dvorak.

(Oddly, some parts of the DROD engine recognize the Dvorak keyboard through Windows and other parts do not, but it all works out...)

____________________________
Trickster

Official Hold Progress
Favorite Unofficial Holds (I need to play more!)
My Holds

---

[Last edited by Trickster at 01-11-2013 03:17 AM]

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1062
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged

"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms.

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

---

[Last edited by hyperme at 01-06-2013 12:46 PM]

Moo
Level: Master Delver
Rank Points: 224
Registered: 10-14-2006
IP: Logged

hyperme wrote:
"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms.

No, that sounds fine!
It's this kind of thing that sounds bad:

Znirk wrote:
Yeah, that one can lead to scary results ...

12th Archivist
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 789
Registered: 12-07-2008
IP: Logged

24.5% is pretty impressive. Why has the development team been going so fast as of late? Not that I mind, of course, but...

____________________________
It was going well until it exploded.
~Scott Manley

Check out the DROD Wikia project here!

Trickster
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 662
Registered: 07-03-2007
IP: Logged

hyperme wrote:
"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms.

How much money would it take under the table to make this quote a reality? I'm willing to go almost to five figures.

____________________________
Trickster

Official Hold Progress
Favorite Unofficial Holds (I need to play more!)
My Holds

---

[Last edited by Trickster at 01-11-2013 03:17 AM]

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1062
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged

Moo wrote:

hyperme wrote:
"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms.

No, that sounds fine!
It's this kind of thing that sounds bad:

Znirk wrote:
Yeah, that one can lead to scary results ...

I guess that's bad as in 'bad quality' since 42-45 tarstuffs packed into one room isn't going to puzzle well. 14 spread over 726 rooms guarantees single showcases, as well as funky multi-stuff rooms, and a chance to see all the new switching tokens.

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

File: 12345.png (22.3 KB)
Downloaded 610 times.
License: Public Domain

Time for nice-looking numbers!



____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

---

[Last edited by rman at 01-10-2013 08:01 PM]

12th Archivist
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 789
Registered: 12-07-2008
IP: Logged

File: 11111.jpg (8.1 KB)
Downloaded 586 times.
License: Public Domain

Meh. Not bad, I guess.

____________________________
It was going well until it exploded.
~Scott Manley

Check out the DROD Wikia project here!

---

[Last edited by 12th Archivist at 01-11-2013 12:43 AM]

hyperme
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 1062
Registered: 06-23-2006
IP: Logged

24.75%! Progress you can't smell, because it's a virtual bar.

____________________________
[Insert witty comment here]
Qzvlkx?

Nuntar
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 4590
Registered: 02-20-2007
IP: Logged

DROD:

(that's one-quarter of "DROD: The Second Sky"!)

____________________________
50th Skywatcher

mrimer
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5056
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

From two skies, you make it sound like it's an eighth...

____________________________
Gandalf? Yes... That's what they used to call me.
Gandalf the Grey. That was my name.
I am Gandalf the White.
And I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

One quarter done!

It took the Bar 163 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 13, 2013) to advance by 11.5% (from 13.5% to 25%). At this rate (about 14.2 days per percent, previously about 14.7), it will reach 100% in approximately 1063 more days, i.e. on December 12, 2015 (was previously January 24, 2016).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 263 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 13, 2013) to advance by 25%. This way (about 10.5 days per percent, previously about 10.6) it will reach 100% in 789 days, i.e. on March 13, 2015 (was previously March 19, 2015).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

TripleM
Level: Smitemaster
Rank Points: 1373
Registered: 02-05-2003
IP: Logged

File: tcb.png (8.6 KB)
Downloaded 1050 times.
License: Public Domain

26%.

---

[Last edited by TripleM at 03-01-2013 12:38 AM]

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It took the Bar 177 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 27, 2013) to advance by 12.5% (from 13.5% to 26%). At this rate (about 14.2 days per percent, previously also about 14.2), it will reach 100% in approximately 1048 more days, i.e. on December 11, 2015 (was previously December 12, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 277 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 27, 2013) to advance by 26%. This way (about 10.7 days per percent, previously about 10.5) it will reach 100% in about 788 days, i.e. on March 26, 2015 (was previously March 13, 2015).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

navithmastero
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 596
Registered: 01-03-2012
IP: Logged

Siebenundzwanzig!

-nm

____________________________
Member of the Snake Appreciation Society

One of your local HAs.

My stuff:

Red-XIII
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 623
Registered: 08-05-2012
IP: Logged

It's advancing every time by 1%, nice!

____________________________
There's not some other world out there where everything's gonna be okay.
There's just this one, just this rock.
-33th Skywatcher

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It took the Bar 179 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 29, 2013) to advance by 13.5% (from 13.5% to 27%). At this rate (about 13.3 days per percent, previously also about 14.2), it will reach 100% in approximately 968 more days, i.e. on September 24, 2015 (was previously December 11, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 279 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 29, 2013) to advance by 27%. This way (about 10.3 days per percent, previously about 10.7) it will reach 100% in about 754 days, i.e. on February 22, 2015 (was previously March 26, 2015).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

Dischorran
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 3408
Registered: 09-10-2005
IP: Logged

One wonders, then, if a linear model is really the best choice for extrapolation.

____________________________

rman
Level: Smiter

Rank Points: 371
Registered: 09-24-2007
IP: Logged

It may not be the best, but it’s certainly the simplest.

Also, it’s nice to watch the assumed release dates move closer to the current time (apart from the current time moment moving closer to the release dates on its own).

____________________________

Best quote ever (TSS ending spoiler):

Schik
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5381
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

This thread needs more graphs.

____________________________
The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way it treats its animals.
--Mahatma Gandhi

west.logan
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 608
Registered: 03-09-2011
IP: Logged

File: Garaffe.PNG (72.9 KB)
Downloaded 194 times.
License: Public Domain

Here's one. Minor divisions are months.



____________________________
-Logan

---

[Last edited by west.logan at 01-30-2013 02:52 PM]

Schik
Level: Legendary Smitemaster

Rank Points: 5381
Registered: 02-04-2003
IP: Logged

Love it, but I think you need a couple more degrees on that polynomial

____________________________
The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way it treats its animals.
--Mahatma Gandhi

west.logan
Level: Smitemaster

Rank Points: 608
Registered: 03-09-2011
IP: Logged

File: Garaffe2.PNG (64.5 KB)
Downloaded 932 times.
License: Public Domain

Based on polynomial trends, I predict the game will be released by July of this year

Here's another regarding how rman's linear predictions are progressing.


____________________________
-Logan

---

[Last edited by west.logan at 01-30-2013 03:07 PM]