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RoboBob3000
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (0)  
Well, that 24% is definitely new, methinks.

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01-03-2013 at 10:34 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 154 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 4, 2013) to advance by 10.5% (from 13.5% to 24%). At this rate (about 14.7 days per percent, previously about 15.6), it will reach 100% in approximately 1115 more days, i.e. on January 24, 2016 (was previously April 12, 2016).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 254 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 4, 2013) to advance by 24%. This way (about 10.6 days per percent, previously about 10.8) it will reach 100% in about 804 days, i.e. on March 19, 2015 (was previously April 8, 2015).

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01-04-2013 at 09:11 AM
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Someone Else
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I did a graph of rman's excellent analysis, calculating some of the values from 0% myself. It looks like this:


[Last edited by Someone Else at 01-04-2013 06:43 PM]
01-04-2013 at 06:35 PM
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Someone Else
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+1)  
We can see that there are some obvious outliers, namely the first two data points. Eliminating those and adding lines of best fit (and adjusting to get the total number of days the bar will not be at 100%), we get:

Solving for 100%, we find that the bar will exist somewhere between 25 days and -1367 days.

Conclusion:
The bar is actually at 100%, and has been for some time. You people are all crazy.

EDIT: I can't seem to get 2 pictures in the same post :/

[Last edited by Someone Else at 01-04-2013 06:44 PM]
01-04-2013 at 06:41 PM
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Moo
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How about graphing percentage vs days since start? That should show the trend without depending on rman's analysis (so can include other peoples posted %s).
Edit: I did it, and it doesn't look very interesting... But using a linear approximation(ignoring the first 3 values before it got recorded regularly) I calculate the bar should reach 100% on March 7 2014, which is a bit sooner than other estimates have been...

[Last edited by Moo at 01-04-2013 08:50 PM]
01-04-2013 at 08:09 PM
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I can't get the snake game to work.

Is this the only game the new bar has had so far? Under Chrome with everything up-to-date, the game does not seem to respond to any of the keyboard or mouse commands I try.

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01-06-2013 at 01:53 AM
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Schik
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It is the only game in the bar thus far.

Does it even start when you press space? Or does the snake simply not turn when you press q or w?

There's no funky tech being used, just javascript. I guess I'd look at what plugins you have in chrome. Can't think of any other reason it wouldn't work, it works fine for me in a standard current install of chrome.

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01-06-2013 at 02:14 AM
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quote:
Schik wrote:
It is the only game in the bar thus far.

Does it even start when you press space? Or does the snake simply not turn when you press q or w?
Aha! That's it.

You'd think 'q' and 'w' would make sense to a DROD player, but... I use Dvorak. :lol

(Oddly, some parts of the DROD engine recognize the Dvorak keyboard through Windows and other parts do not, but it all works out...)

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[Last edited by Trickster at 01-11-2013 03:17 AM]
01-06-2013 at 04:55 AM
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hyperme
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"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms. :P

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[Last edited by hyperme at 01-06-2013 12:46 PM]
01-06-2013 at 12:46 PM
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Moo
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quote:
hyperme wrote:
"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms. :P
No, that sounds fine!
It's this kind of thing that sounds bad:
quote:
Znirk wrote:
Yeah, that one can lead to scary results ...

:lol
01-06-2013 at 01:18 PM
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12th Archivist
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24.5% is pretty impressive. Why has the development team been going so fast as of late? Not that I mind, of course, but...

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01-07-2013 at 12:31 AM
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Trickster
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quote:
hyperme wrote:
"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms. :P
How much money would it take under the table to make this quote a reality? I'm willing to go almost to five figures.

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[Last edited by Trickster at 01-11-2013 03:17 AM]
01-07-2013 at 03:23 AM
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hyperme
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quote:
Moo wrote:
quote:
hyperme wrote:
"TSS features 11 new types of tarstuff and 726 tarstuff rooms."

Well this is terrifying. Let's hope some beta testing removes some rooms. :P
No, that sounds fine!
It's this kind of thing that sounds bad:
quote:
Znirk wrote:
Yeah, that one can lead to scary results ...

:lol
I guess that's bad as in 'bad quality' since 42-45 tarstuffs packed into one room isn't going to puzzle well. 14 spread over 726 rooms guarantees single showcases, as well as funky multi-stuff rooms, and a chance to see all the new switching tokens.

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01-07-2013 at 10:17 PM
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rman
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Time for nice-looking numbers! :fun



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[Last edited by rman at 01-10-2013 08:01 PM]
01-10-2013 at 08:00 PM
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Meh. Not bad, I guess.

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[Last edited by 12th Archivist at 01-11-2013 12:43 AM]
01-11-2013 at 12:43 AM
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hyperme
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24.75%! Progress you can't smell, because it's a virtual bar.

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01-11-2013 at 07:54 PM
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Nuntar
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DROD:

(that's one-quarter of "DROD: The Second Sky"!)

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01-13-2013 at 01:28 AM
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mrimer
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From two skies, you make it sound like it's an eighth...

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01-13-2013 at 01:32 AM
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rman
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One quarter done!

It took the Bar 163 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 13, 2013) to advance by 11.5% (from 13.5% to 25%). At this rate (about 14.2 days per percent, previously about 14.7), it will reach 100% in approximately 1063 more days, i.e. on December 12, 2015 (was previously January 24, 2016).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 263 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 13, 2013) to advance by 25%. This way (about 10.5 days per percent, previously about 10.6) it will reach 100% in 789 days, i.e. on March 13, 2015 (was previously March 19, 2015).

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01-13-2013 at 09:40 AM
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TripleM
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26%.

[Last edited by TripleM at 03-01-2013 12:38 AM]
01-27-2013 at 07:08 AM
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rman
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It took the Bar 177 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 27, 2013) to advance by 12.5% (from 13.5% to 26%). At this rate (about 14.2 days per percent, previously also about 14.2), it will reach 100% in approximately 1048 more days, i.e. on December 11, 2015 (was previously December 12, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 277 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 27, 2013) to advance by 26%. This way (about 10.7 days per percent, previously about 10.5) it will reach 100% in about 788 days, i.e. on March 26, 2015 (was previously March 13, 2015).

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01-27-2013 at 09:26 AM
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navithmastero
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Siebenundzwanzig!

-nm

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01-29-2013 at 12:07 PM
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Red-XIII
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It's advancing every time by 1%, nice!

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01-29-2013 at 12:08 PM
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rman
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It took the Bar 179 days (from August 3, 2012 to January 29, 2013) to advance by 13.5% (from 13.5% to 27%). At this rate (about 13.3 days per percent, previously also about 14.2), it will reach 100% in approximately 968 more days, i.e. on September 24, 2015 (was previously December 11, 2015).

Alternatively, you could say that it took the Bar 279 days (from April 25, 2012 to January 29, 2013) to advance by 27%. This way (about 10.3 days per percent, previously about 10.7) it will reach 100% in about 754 days, i.e. on February 22, 2015 (was previously March 26, 2015).

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01-29-2013 at 02:51 PM
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Dischorran
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One wonders, then, if a linear model is really the best choice for extrapolation.

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01-29-2013 at 06:51 PM
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rman
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It may not be the best, but itís certainly the simplest.

Also, itís nice to watch the assumed release dates move closer to the current time (apart from the current time moment moving closer to the release dates on its own).

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01-30-2013 at 01:58 PM
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Schik
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This thread needs more graphs.

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01-30-2013 at 02:04 PM
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west.logan
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Here's one. Minor divisions are months.

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[Last edited by west.logan at 01-30-2013 02:52 PM]
01-30-2013 at 02:51 PM
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Schik
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Love it, but I think you need a couple more degrees on that polynomial ;)

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01-30-2013 at 02:58 PM
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icon Re: The Wrath of Watch the Bar VII: The Final Click (+3)  
Based on polynomial trends, I predict the game will be released by July of this year :thumbsup

Here's another regarding how rman's linear predictions are progressing.
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01-30-2013 at 03:05 PM
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